Pre GW 12 Transfers

After scouring the market this week, potential riches this week were only identified in the City lineup, who don't exactly have a good subsequent 6 weeks.

Gameweek 12 Projections

Projection of this weeks' points.

Gameweek 11: The Verdict

The Verdict is about analysis of my players based on their score, combined with their underlying stats from a particular Gameweek.

This section was actually quite tricky to make because players brought in have expectations about them, highlighted by their projected score. Since this is part of the personal record, there will be 2 tables to deliver the verdict on these players. The first table will be the underlying stats for each player based on their individual games.

Based on these stats, their actual score is compared to their projected score.

Projected Score	Actual Score	Stats	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

The rule I guess, is to

Player	Price	Minutes	Key Passes	Shots	Shots in the box	Shots on Target	Assists	Goals	Verdict
Baines	7.6	96	3	0	0	0	0	0	FLOP
Cameron	4.6	95	1	1	1	0	0	0	EXPECTED
Gorkss	4.0	94	0	1	1	0	0	0	EXPECTED
Wilkinson	4.4	95	0	1	0	0	0	0	EXPECTED
Davies	4.0	95	0	0	0	0	0	0	EXPECTED
Cazorla	9.4	95	2	2	0	0	0	0	FLOP
Bale	9.7	97	1	4	2	1	0	0	ONE-OFF
Fellaini	7.4	96	1	2	2	1	1	1	DELIVER
Nolan	6.7	93	2	3	3	1	0	1	DELIVER
Maloney	5.0	96	1	2	1	0	0	0	EXPECTED
Ba	8.3	96	1	3	1	2	0	0	FLOP
RVP	13.6	96	6	4	1	0	1	0	FLOP
Suarez	9.8	95	1	2	1	2	0	1	DELIVER

THE DELIVERS

Gameweek 11: Lessons

So let's start off with the Gameweek's scores:

Player	Home/Away	Projected Score	Actual Score	Verdict
Begovic	Home	6	7	DELIVER
Baines	Home	6 to 9	4	FLOP
Gorkss	Home	2 or 6	6	DELIVER
Cameron	Home	2 or 6	6	DELIVER
Fellaini	Home	7 or more	13	DELIVER
Bale	Away	2 to 7	2	EXPECTED
Cazorla	Home	5 or more	2	FLOP
Maloney	Home	2 to 6	2	FLOP
Suarez	Away	2 to 6	9	DELIVER
Ba	Home	1 to 6	2	FLOP
RVP	Away	6 at least	5	FLOP
Krul	Home	2 or 6	2	EXPECTED
Wilkinson	Home	2 or 6	6	DELIVER
Nolan	Away	2 to 7	11	DELIVER
Davies	Away	2	2	EXPECTED

FPL Transfer Guidelines

This page will be simple to most FPL managers out there who just want a second opinion on who to buy and sell. Similar to Fanning the Flames by Chris Glover's PLFantasy, this page will be updated hopefully after relevant stats are released. This will be the "logical" view in making decisions as facts don't lie (such as buying differentials based on Taarabt and Suarez's attempts on target). As my statistics knowledge as of now is still relatively low, I will most likely be initially referring to Shots On Target's stats for now, the team there has done a fantastic job in making life easier for everybody.

Things that I will touch on in this page are:

• Bandwagons: Who is gaining momentum and who is losing it
• Differentials: Players that consistently do well in football but not in FPL, but could potentially do well one day

That's all I can think of for now, I'm not really keen into doing additional statistical work just yet, but anyone that comes across this and is willing to do the math is very, very welcome in giving me ideas. 

FPL Transfer Myths

Disclaimer: This page will be highly opinionated and MOST LIKELY TO BE WRONG. However, if this page becomes more accurate (as my reading of the game improves hopefully), this page will probably be educational in terms of footballing tactics as well as how it affects FPL in general.Things that will pop up on this page will be somewhere along the lines of:

• Out of Position (OoP) players: Why and what now?
• Form players: Why are they unstoppable?
• Consistency in football vs. Consistency in FPL: How stark is the difference?
• Basic formation differences: What formations work against what? 
• Elite Team Myths: Why ManU do well after Christmas, and why everyone else doesn't
• Managerless Teams: Sitting Ducks or Cornered Rats?
• Relegation Team Myths: Why are they there in the first place and what they do to get out of it
• Competition Rotation: How the best (and the worst) manage their squads

These are just examples of articles that I am looking to develop in the future. Chances are that this portion of the page will receive a lot of contribution from other people as well, which is very, very welcome, as this will be an opinion based page.

References on these tactics might be a bit wishy-washy at first, but I do have sound references (such as Michael Cox's ZonalMarking) that is probably the best resource out there to start off with if I were to start posting here.

OH and I will put up ideas for this page as well in the "Read more" section for myself to write in the future, or if anyone comes across anything interesting:

The Big Picture

While this blog has been created to track my Fantasy Selection system development, I'm probably thinking of permalinking several pages that will constantly be updated to be referred to later. Pages like Projections vs. Results and The Big Picture itself should probably have a separate page as well me thinks. Will attempt to pull this off and see how I can constantly update things.

GW11 Projections

The team for this week, as well as projected points. Will probably make a separate page on projections vs results later in the week.

GW10 Performance: Underlying Stats

This entry might not be a regular, as theoretically I could only put this up when ShotsonTarget puts up their stats. Would love to use it though, but ultimately it's for my own reference. But if any of you guys know alternative resources for this kind of data, let me know.

Pre GW11 Transfers

I'm being very fickle this week. I think I"m making 6 transfers this Gameweek altogether, but I wanna at least make sure that my moves are justified.