Friday 25 October 2013

GW8 Post Mortem

Decided to skip GW7 due to the fact that I was overseas throughout the international break. GW8 Post Mortem was pretty fun to do with decent findings popping up, hopefully people can use this


GW6 Post Mortem

Sorry for being a wee bit late, stuff came up, but here it is... Will post GW8 Post Mortem straight after


Thursday 19 September 2013

GW4 Post Mortem

Sorry about the lack of posts, work has caught up. Again. More of the same from last week, fresh out of the oven this time (and more clues on BPs)

Something new will be out on the weekend I promise

Thursday 5 September 2013

FPL GW3 Post Match Mortem

So I've got my homework done early. Relatively big post after this as I've embarked on a pretty big project and I"m more than happy to show it off when I have it in a presentable form.

In the mean time, enjoy my take on GW3's games. I've got pictures this time.


Friday 30 August 2013

FPL GW2 Post Match Mortem

Hello,

Projections and results have been slow, I"m writing regularly for another site at the moment so I'll just chuck the rest here too for easy reading. During the international break however, I do intend to make something out of this (such as update the Trends and Myths etc. for once) so basically this is what I've been up to at the moment..

Friday 23 August 2013

FPL 13/14 GW1: The Verdict

Time to see how bad the damage is. 

GW1 post-Saturday has left me lingering in the 1.8 MILLION rank mark. The first day average was contributed mainly by the people who have RVP's brace combined with one of Mignolet or Toure, so having neither Mignolet or RVP I deservedly am in this position. Time for KPI monitoring then lol.

Saturday 17 August 2013

GW1 Projections

OK people!!! Happy GW1 everybody!!!!! Hyper-excitement aside I have decided to do some quick background work and this will apply to my own team. Format that I'm using to evaluate my squad traditionally has been done with Chris Glover's blog, but with him tying the knot and all I will attempt to rely on the F.SCORE metric done by ShotsonTarget and evaluate from there.

What is interesting will be comparing what I used last season compared to this season. Fun times ahead.

Sunday 11 August 2013

FPL Preseason Preparation Part 2: Fixtures

With part 1 out of the way, I'll focus on squad composition as late as possible (I'll have the post ready, but it'll be subject to transfers from Bale etc.) but firstly there are things that don't change, such as fixtures. The aim of this part of the preparation is building from Part 1 itself: Based on prices I'll have some recommendations to make, and based on fixtures I'll recommend "pairs" or "trios" to have in your squad for the first 19 weeks (where you can use your winter wildcard to change things up later).

While FFS has started suggesting pairs of defences that rotate well home and away, I feel the need to go beyond the obvious: I have created a spreadsheet and I have been at work with it for a while, link here. However, in this post I'll attempt to create an organised matrix of some sort to filter the wheat from the chaff, and hopefully add some meaning and insight to your preseason banter/planning before anything else happens.

Wednesday 31 July 2013

FPL Preseason Preparation Part 1: Prices

With FPL about to open I conveniently have a 2-day holiday for Aidilfitri (implying having a 4 day weekend and I'm quite tempted to take 3 days leave to have the week free haha) I have been working on a spreadsheet that finds rotations that work for the first 19 weeks (without mathematical formulas, maths formulas have their own flaws and I prefer using the analytic eye).

With Rate My Teams all over the place, I'd figure I'd add fuel to the fire here by firstly selecting some criterion to stick to and then going through some rotations that I've looked through. Sorry for not finishing the last series.


Monday 8 July 2013

FPL 12/13, the Hindsight Approach, Part 2

Continuing from Part 1, this is the continued part of the series that will sum up the FPL season in general for 2012/13, and I'll add any observations/trends that I have spotted over different parts of the season.

In terms of latest developments, the cumulative points spreadsheet a couple of guys have presented on FFS is a brilliant tool for analysis, and I will attempt to use this as well to aid my analysis. Note that this portion of the series will be significantly larger than the last, as I will be comparing trends in this second period to the first 7 games, as well as going to town a little on possible tactical changes and I'll include a bit of stats to back it up (no tables I promise).

The stats/lineups/tactical quotations that I use in these series of posts will be based on data from Whoscored, Football-Lineups, Transfermarkt, the aforementioned spreadsheet for FPL data, and if I need heat maps, Squawka. There is a "Long Story Short" Version at the end of the article. The "End" button on your keyboard is useful here.

I'll focus a bit on the midtable teams to relegation candidates first, so do take a look at those while I finish up the rest. Updated 16 July (Finished Liverpool)

Tuesday 2 July 2013

FPL 12/13, The Hindsight Approach - Part 1

While I was contented to make a summary of what happened to MY season, I found that it was also as important to note things that have happened to other teams in general which contributes to FPL. So before that season's data gets wiped, I'll try and sum up everything that happened in that season so that I at least have notes to refer to for next season.

This data will be useful to the people that (A) Believe that certain things will carry over from season to season and (B) don't mind using hindsight as a decent indicator/lesson to use for the coming season.

Tuesday 25 June 2013

The point of saving data for FPL

I need to ramble a bit. Figured that this is the best avenue for it while keeping a record of anecdotes.

I needed to question my fundamentals to figure out the point of it all. The topic floated about my head when the fixture list popped up for the 13/14 Premier League, prompting a huge debate (with myself) on data collection, whether for present or past. What pushed me over the edge was the fact that I was attempting to gather FPL points from the past season, which was a ridiculous amount of effort.

On a personal level, I'd like to do things that people don't provide almost for the sake of it, and lately it's becoming a habit. My initial efforts are usually efficient, but as time goes by and I'm adding on top of what I'm doing, I tend to become lazy and I procrastinate and the quality of my work almost plateaus.

But I question myself again: What is the point of coming up with data that cannot be found anywhere else? What is the point of coming up with EPL 13/14 rotations, or assists and goals for the past season?

The answer, after some thought, was quite simple: To justify arguments. I want to say that Leighton Baines had the potential to be good as an offensive and a defensive asset for his price, but I have no evidence. All we "have" are memories from our past season (and maybe some data from the FFS Members and Whoscored) which significantly helps nowadays for argument's sake.

Now, it's time to question why I  want to save past FPL data. Does it help me? No. So what does help my knowledge in FPL that I can use in the future?

Rotations are good. Why do I come up with rotations?

Ah, now I get it. Strategies on maximising point potential lately has been really murkifying my thoughts, and this ties with MY strategy: I want to use rotations to maximise my points. But not just in the sense that "5 defs so and so will give you the most points over 19 weeks". I want an ADAPTIVE rotation that can accomodate having form defenses while rotating everyone else.

The strategy now becomes slightly clearer. I have heard many types of strategies (especially on FFS) but I had better list mine here before I forget, again:

1. For GKs, grab Cech and a keeper good for the next 2-3 games (Boruc probably). Send Cech out when a form keeper is found while using the 2nd keeper to cover Cech's bad fixtures (GW2 to united, GW3's blank, GW4's everton trip and GW6's trip to Spurs. Think I might have to let go Cech post GW1)

2. For defs, I'm going completely rotation based as I see none of the elite defenses worth investing in at the moment, due to rotation (City, Arsenal due to Champs league, Spurs because of NO Champions League, Everton because of a new manager), or unfavourable fixtures and no evidence in form (United, Chelsea).

Hence, in defense I'm planning an all-out cheapie assault as I load my money on the heavy hitters up front, depending on pre-season form coupled with potentially cheap new signings.

With the strategy set, the last question remains: While rotations help, does gathering data from past seasons help?

The answer is no. The only "real" data that will help me will be the ones that will record my mistakes. Where I lost out on opportunities to hit huge points, and where I lost points by making unnecessary transfers. So what I will be compiling instead will be my mistakes according to trends of EPL 12/13.

Glad I got that sorted out. Time to start the real work then.

Monday 10 June 2013

u21 Notes - Wildcard

Very low scoring tournament.

No bonuses, no attacking/defending/post-game etc.

Noting plans for reference right before matchday 3.


Wednesday 1 May 2013

GW36 DGW Players: Picks and Considerations

We've been planning for this week for a while. At least I have. I'm sure lots of you that are reading this now would've at least made SOME preparation for DGW36.

Without sounding TOO much like an FFS article, I will attempt to delve into the GW36 options, but most importantly I would like to stress on the potential SINGLE Gameweek options that you can/should bench and even play, because some of these players are simply not worth taking out for a -4, and I will spend as much time as possible to help you draw the line between SELL and HOLD.

I'll also touch on any Wildcard strategies people have, as I can imagine there are managers who have planned to use their wildcards now. Congrats if you are doing so. I let mine go in GW6, and the feeling was somewhere along the lines of something I heard quoted by 2D in Gorrilaz' "Double Bass":

"All of which makes me anxious, at times unbearably so".

Sunday 28 April 2013

GW34: The Verdict

More Catch up work. Trying to get the prep work out of the way before the monster GW36 article. 

*edit* See halfway through this post I realised that GW34 wasn't gonna be a good one either. As Malaysians would put it: DIE LA

Friday 26 April 2013

GW35 Projections

GW35. Another calm before another storm. GW36 seems underwhelming to most people though, and it's completely understandable imo. Will probably do 1 more post within the week for Wildcard holders for GW36 (Some have come to me for templates already) but for now, the essentials are all we need really (Bale duh!!)

Also did RVP + Jenas -> Bale + Tevez. Let's see how the stats pan it out.

Tuesday 23 April 2013

GW34 Projections


Between GW33 and GW34 the "planned" transfer was to do nothing and stick to 2 Arsenal mids against Fulham but I kneejerked for Maloney's price rise (OF ALL THINGS!!!!) and borught him in for Cazorla. Sometimes I need to hit myself really, really hard on the head before I do these things.


GW33 Projections

I show up for this DGW with 6 DGW players. Took the leap of faith to bring Baines in for this particular week, sacrificing Enrique in the process despite Reading showing up at Anfield. Nail-biting times indeed.


GW32 Projections


I am aware I haven't done stuff for a while now. Work's been catching up with me, as with most Stat blog writers who have other jobs too.

Having said that, not paying attention to the things I usually do has cost me. Not putting up the projections for GW33 has caused me to put the armband on Caz instead of RVP for example. But I'll learn. Good lessons for next season. Time for the formalities then.

Tuesday 9 April 2013

DGW Planning, 9 April


Dear FPL Managers,

I hope that everyone survived this week's horrendous Gameweek. How the average jumped from 20 points to 32 is still beyond me. Must be that all the ghost teams had their subs come on consisting of Demels and Hooivelds or something.

Since most of you are probably almost well setup for the DGWs with planned Fellaini transfers in, I'll refer a lot to the previous article (which is also on this site) but I'll update the tiers with a new type of recommendation - Worth a Hit. There are managers out there who are very, very keen on profitting off these DGWs and I'm going to offer my 2 cents on who to take hits/ not take hits for and why.

Friday 5 April 2013

DGW Planning, 5 April

A new twist in the buildup to the DGWs is Bale's ankle injury in the Europa League match last night. The massive Baleout has already begun, so I'll be doing a quick update on what's hot and hopefully by the time you finish reading this you'll have a sound decision in mind. Tiers will also be updated as well (which the Bale tier really).

Updates on DGWs and blanks can be found here.

Visual on the DGWs and blanks can be found here.

IMPORTANT Note: Use this link for now, but treat the CHE GW33 Fixture as "ful" only, and the TOT GW33 fixture as a blank. 

TL;DR - Since the last article,

Arsenal, Man United, Everton, Fulham and West Ham are CONFIRMED to have Double Gameweeks while

Swansea, West Brom and Spurs have blanks.

On top of that, Bale is injured. I refuse to post pics.

The gist of this article will be planning for Gameweeks 33, and possibly Gameweek 36.

I'll also touch on what you should expect out of your Chelsea players, but expect it to be similar to the last article.

This article will cut to the chase and I'll go straight to the strategies involved in tackling these Gameweeks. The tiers will also be automatically updated.

GW31: The Verdict

Time to motor. The most important of the 3 articles is after this.

GW31 Projections

Just the classic stuff before the next Gameweek starts. I'll fix these up as soon as possible and then I'll move on to the DGW stuff. 

Oh right, moves. Upgraded Sessegnon, but instead of the planned Pienaar in, I moved for Cazorla for captaincy versus Reading. Unfortunately this implied that I had to take a hit to fund this move, and I elected to draft in Jenas, who is the most guaranteed 4.2 starter instead of downgrading Benteke or Suarez, who were both in good for (and possessing good fixtures). 

Monday 1 April 2013

DGW Planning: 1 April

Hope you guys had a good GW31, lots of chatter going on already on GW33 so I'll get right to it. What a goal by Ba.


Updates on DGWs and blanks can be found here.

Visual on the DGWs and blanks can be found here.

IMPORTANT Note: Use this link for now, but treat the CHE GW33 Fixture as "ful" only, and the TOT GW33 fixture as a blank. 

TL;DR - Since the last article, Chelsea have beaten Man United, implying that their game v Spurs will be called off. (Spurs blank). Chelsea will now have 1 game instead of two, while Man United will have 2 games, and Stoke will not have a blank.

The gist of this article will be planning for Gameweeks 33, and possibly Gameweek 36.

I'll also touch on what you should expect out of your Chelsea players, but expect it to be similar to the last article.

This article will cut to the chase and I'll go straight to the strategies involved in tackling these Gameweeks. The tiers will also be automatically updated.

Monday 25 March 2013

GW 30: The Verdict


Potential goal of the season from Osman. Fellaini owners lucked out again. My plan in slicing through ghost teams like bamboo failing due to Hazard taking West Ham from behind. All the Bego and Shawcross owners also pushed the average higher than my actual score. I'm not sure what to make of it.


GW 30 Projections


So with the international break over in a week, I realise that my next few days are going to be overloaded with work and other things to do. Time to get to it then.

Sunday 24 March 2013

DGW Planning, 24 March


Happy international break guys. It's a week before the games resume and I thought to myself that instead of doing chores, I might as well start making some recommendations, when to get them and what are the pros and cons of picking up said players.

Updates on DGWs and blanks can be found here. 

TL;DR - Since the last article, Fulham v Chelsea have appeared in GW33, implying a DGW for Fulham that Gameweek as well as a GUARANTEED fixture for Chelsea, with a DGW a possibility (similar to Man United).

The gist of this article will be planning for Gameweeks 33, and possibly Gameweek 36.

I'll also touch on what you should expect out of your Chelsea players since as I write this they have beaten Steaua Bucharest and are through to the next round of the Europa Cup.

This article will cut to the chase and I'll go straight to the strategies involved in tackling these Gameweeks. The tiers will also be automatically updated.

Thursday 14 March 2013

DGW Planning - 15March (Will be Updating Together With CocoBomb's news)

Don't ask what level of Candy Crush I'm on.

Updates on DGWs and blanks can be found here. 

TL;DR - Since the last article, City v Wigan has been moved to GW33, while City v West Brom has not been rescheduled. Wigan v Swansea also have officially appeared at GW36.

The gist of this article will be planning for Gameweeks 33, and possibly Gameweek 36.

I'll also touch on what you should expect out of your Chelsea players since as I write this they have beaten Steaua Bucharest and are through to the next round of the Europa Cup.

This article will cut to the chase and I'll go straight to the strategies involved in tackling these Gameweeks. The tiers will also be automatically updated.

Wednesday 13 March 2013

GW29: The Watchlist

So I'm back to writing watchlists again for a couple of reasons. (1) I'm trying to peel away from Candy Crush and (2) I miss making watchlists. It's quite interesting to go through match data to see how people are truly doing. 

Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Tuesday 12 March 2013

Special Piece: GW 29 - Transfer Planning + Talk of the Town

With Projections and Verdicts out of the way, time for a game of Candy Crush and I can start this.

OK let's go. Level 101 woohoo.

Much has been discussed about the dreaded blanks this season. While the past 4 FPL blanks for Sunderland/Reading, Chelsea/Southampton, Liverpool/Swansea and Arsenal/West Ham have been relatively straight forward, the coming FA Cup/EPL clashes  have affected multiple Gameweeks in advance, and the first blow has been landed already.

Gameweek 29. United, Chelsea, Wigan, Everton, Arsenal, City, Fulham and West Ham all didn't play due to the former 4 playing in the FA Cup Quarters. The butterfly effect has caused Arsenal v Everton to resurface at Gameweek 33, which is the only confirmed DGW so far.

Due to Wigan and City beating Everton and Barnsley respectively in the FA Cup, Wigan's game against Swansea, as well as City v West Brom in Gameweek 33 has also disappeared, making Lukaku, any City forward and Kone/Maloney decent pickups after then.

So with this being the only information available so far, this article will serve as a "tracker" of all info available, but I'm hoping to split this into "Transfer Planning' and "Talk of the Town" later in the season (or next season) so that people can see the logic behind my transfers, whether short term or mid term. Expect lots of speculation and fixture planning in the rest of this article.

GW29: The Verdict


Green arrow again. Must learn from Liverpool though: When you announce to the world that you're 2 points off fourth place, the whole universe conspires against you to succeed worse than a Paulo Coelho book.

GW29 Projections

More stuff to catch up on yay. This week was meant to be exciting as many blanks afforded me to have a transfer dilemma for once, but Candy Crush happened. Anyway time for a catch up.

Wednesday 6 March 2013

Sunday 3 March 2013

GW26: The Verdict


And we keep rolling. Theme of this week was Liverpool and Swansea's DGW, and here are the results.


GW27: The Verdict


Right, catch up time. GW27 saw one of my worst nightmares come to life, but we learn don't we.


GW28 Projections

OK firstly, apologies for the lack of anything over the last week or so. Been busy with a lot of things ( as well as recovering from a lot of things) and I'll aim to have projections, as well as the Verdict from 2 weeks ago up my today before the Spurs/Arsenal game. Let's go.


Saturday 23 February 2013

GW26 Projections


OK so with a little recap on last week's spoils and the big DGW coming up, this is where my wildcard team delivers. Let's see how big things can get.

GW27 Projections


Adding a new feature here. Vantheman's gonna (hopefully) send me his picks every week, so I'll be putting them here from here on. Good times.

Saturday 2 February 2013

GW24: The Verdict


Wow the stats came out late. Rush rush rush. At least I got my green arrow :)

GW25 Projections

Adding a new feature here. Vantheman's gonna (hopefully) send me his picks every week, so I'll be putting them here from here on. Good times.

My WildCard team 12/13

After 2 weeks of tinkering and drafting, the final decisions have been made with my Wildcard team for the second half of the season. There were experiments with 3-5-2, 3-4-3 and even a team revolving around Leighton Baines, but the Liverpool DGW swayed me and this post will be the landmark where I will deviate from most fantasy managers.

I will state my reasons here, as well as recommendations from another friend (which I'll attempt to put up every week and better hopefully), but this is where things get messy. 

Tuesday 29 January 2013

Gameweek Summary

Forecasted scores based on Gameweek vs. Scores obtained on actual gameweek. This post serves to keep track of how well I was expected to do in a particular gameweek, and summarises where I have won or lost points. This post is still considered as a draft, as I will aim to complete my analysis based on Gameweek 1 up to the current Gameweek. Will keep things as simple as possible until I come up with something.

Concept:
  1. The purpose of this page is to figure out a trend between obtained score and category of players. If I know how many Delivers/Flops I have, I know how well I should be doing.
  2. Every week I will have Projected scores and actual scores. 
  3. Based on The Verdict, I will pinpoint Delivers/Flops.
  4. Based on Delivers/Flops, I will determine what portion of these players I would like to have in my team. Obviously everyone would like to have Delivers, but with a budget constraint, good rotations are key to consistently good Gameweeks.
  5. There will be 3 tables: One for Scores, One for Players, and One for links to individual Gameweeks. 
  6. I am intending to add a section/table for players to monitor/drop, which is the whole point of this page.

Monday 28 January 2013

GW23: The Watchlist



Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.


Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW22):


Wishlist: -

Watchlist 1: Baines, Gerrard

Watchlist 2: Lampard, Lukaku, Benteke, Di Santo



GW24 Projections

I can't believe that after nearly a month, I didn't give in to temptation kept my wildcard. Think the GW25 Projection will be the most important of all...

Pre-GW 24 Transfers

OK I know that the lesson last week was to wait for the watchlist, but with my WC planning to be played soon, I couldn't afford the price drop of Wilkinson, so I transferred him out.


GW23: The Verdict

Wow I've bee putting this off for a while, for good reason. Wanted to wait for stats for the West Ham-Arsenal game to surface, but it looks like it won't be happening. On with it then.


Saturday 26 January 2013

Post-Winter Special: Rotation vs. Fixtures Part 2, Imperfect Rotations

So with part 1 up, hopefully that the format of the post was simple enough for everybody to digest. Imperfect Rotations now will be examined as there have been suggestions of better combinations (such as suggested by FantasyFootballScout) and I will explore too the extent of whether can any of those combos beat the current "Record Holder" of Reina/Howard.


*Warning: This post will contain colors and tables. Lots of staring might be required for you to fully appreciate the content of this post.

Wednesday 23 January 2013

Guest Article/Tipping: 2nd half season Fantasy Prospects

A proven FPL player (Acquafresca if you haven't heard) had just presented me with a list of FPL prospects for the 2nd half of the season. While I am a fan of season-long punts, they have to be justified and I will do the best I can do elaborate on these punts.

Sunday 20 January 2013

Post-Winter Special: Rotations vs. Fixtures, Part 1: Perfect Rotations

With the Wildcard period almost over, many have played theirs but are still in the midst of chopping and changing their defence due to offloading their DGW players form the last 2 GWs. This post will serve as a "boxing match", with Home/Away rotations being in the Red Corner, and fixture difficulty squaring up to rotation policies in the blue corner.

*Warning: This post will contain colors and tables. Lots of staring might be required for you to fully appreciate the content of this post.

GW23 Projections


Big games this week, for the big players as well as the popular cap candidates.

Saturday 19 January 2013

GW22: The Watchlist


Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.


Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW18):



Wishlist: Gerrard

Watchlist 1: Baines

Watchlist 2: Aguero, Pablo Hernandez, Marveaux



Thursday 17 January 2013

GW23: The Verdict.


GG.com. Sold Puncheon for Walcott. Just goes to show that greed(?) is good. Annoyed at Hazard owners.

Tuesday 15 January 2013

Pre-GW23 Transfers


Skadoosh. The move to accommodate Walcott, Ruiz and Harte didn't work. 5 points between them. Lesson learnt. Going low risk this week.

So the priority of people "out" are Flops, followed by Injured, then Expecteds with Bad stats. Sounds about right.

Saturday 12 January 2013

GW22 Projections

Double Gameweeks. Wildcards. EVERYWHERE.

Winter Wildcard 2012/2013

Wildcard is here BUM BUM BUMMMMMM. Beyond the countless debates on WC teams, there were many thing to consider, and this post shall not be one of them. This will serve more as a record on what WERE considered, as well my "theoretical XI if I were to WC this week.

Factors considered were (a) fixtures over the 2 weeks (b) what happens after Jan and (c) liquidity and transfer plans.

Guest Article: The Double Gameweek Scenario


Another guest article yay. VanTheMan talks about wildcard choices, his personal 15 and the talk of the town on the winter wildcard. 

Saturday 5 January 2013

GW21: The Watchlist


Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW18):



Wishlist: Gerrard, Ruiz, Walcott

Watchlist 1: Ba, Marveaux

Watchlist 2: Aguero


Friday 4 January 2013

The Christmas Period, Part 1: FPL Trends

So the Winter break has just concluded as a prelude to the January Transfer Window period, and hence the availability of another Wildcard. Games in December 22, 26, 29 and New Years Day brought many Christmas cheers and fears to FPL managers, and this post will highlight what was suspected that came true, as well as some other anomalies.

I will split this Winter Reading into 2 parts, for the sole reason that the topics mentioned are either heavily biased towards FPL tactics or BPL tactics. This article will be on the FPL section directly. The BPL tactics will come in another post, and I will write about their FPL implications as well.

Pre-Gameweek 22 Transfers

The high risk transfers didn't exactly work out, but at least the points I made were enough to offset the points deduction. Krul (5) + Nolan (0 since I don't have 11 starters with Nolan) + 4 = 9, Turnbull (3) + Fellaini (5) = 8. Just the 1 point loss. This week however, I'm going really high risk...


So the priority of people "out" are Flops, followed by Injured, then Expecteds with Bad stats. Sounds about right.

GW21: The Verdict

Stats told me to captain Suarez. I capped RVP wayy earlier in the Gameweek and forgot to change back. What is with these epic fails...

Tuesday 1 January 2013

GW20: The Watchlist



Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW18):


Wishlist: Snodgrass, Bale

Watchlist 1:

Watchlist 2: Taarabt, Downing, Gerrard



GW21 Projections

I almost forgot. Happy New Year guys.

Pre-Gameweek 21 Transfers


So from The Verdict, the options were either (A) Michu out, (B) Nastasic out or (C) Nolan out. Went with (C) because 1. No alternatives for Nastasic and 2. Michu's tweeted about being back soon.

So the priority of people "out" are Flops, followed by Injured, then Expecteds with Bad stats. Sounds about right.

GW20: The Verdict

Made the grave mistake of not switching captains from Bale to RVP on Saturday. How much will this hurt...


GW20 Projections

New year resolutions all around, but mine is to stay consistent. Minimal mistakes until May.