With FPL about to open I conveniently have a 2-day holiday for Aidilfitri (implying having a 4 day weekend and I'm quite tempted to take 3 days leave to have the week free haha) I have been working on a spreadsheet that finds rotations that work for the first 19 weeks (without mathematical formulas, maths formulas have their own flaws and I prefer using the analytic eye).
With Rate My Teams all over the place, I'd figure I'd add fuel to the fire here by firstly selecting some criterion to stick to and then going through some rotations that I've looked through. Sorry for not finishing the last series.
Wednesday, 31 July 2013
Monday, 8 July 2013
FPL 12/13, the Hindsight Approach, Part 2
Continuing from Part 1, this is the continued part of the series that will sum up the FPL season in general for 2012/13, and I'll add any observations/trends that I have spotted over different parts of the season.
In terms of latest developments, the cumulative points spreadsheet a couple of guys have presented on FFS is a brilliant tool for analysis, and I will attempt to use this as well to aid my analysis. Note that this portion of the series will be significantly larger than the last, as I will be comparing trends in this second period to the first 7 games, as well as going to town a little on possible tactical changes and I'll include a bit of stats to back it up (no tables I promise).
The stats/lineups/tactical quotations that I use in these series of posts will be based on data from Whoscored, Football-Lineups, Transfermarkt, the aforementioned spreadsheet for FPL data, and if I need heat maps, Squawka. There is a "Long Story Short" Version at the end of the article. The "End" button on your keyboard is useful here.
I'll focus a bit on the midtable teams to relegation candidates first, so do take a look at those while I finish up the rest. Updated 16 July (Finished Liverpool)
In terms of latest developments, the cumulative points spreadsheet a couple of guys have presented on FFS is a brilliant tool for analysis, and I will attempt to use this as well to aid my analysis. Note that this portion of the series will be significantly larger than the last, as I will be comparing trends in this second period to the first 7 games, as well as going to town a little on possible tactical changes and I'll include a bit of stats to back it up (no tables I promise).
The stats/lineups/tactical quotations that I use in these series of posts will be based on data from Whoscored, Football-Lineups, Transfermarkt, the aforementioned spreadsheet for FPL data, and if I need heat maps, Squawka. There is a "Long Story Short" Version at the end of the article. The "End" button on your keyboard is useful here.
I'll focus a bit on the midtable teams to relegation candidates first, so do take a look at those while I finish up the rest. Updated 16 July (Finished Liverpool)
Tuesday, 2 July 2013
FPL 12/13, The Hindsight Approach - Part 1
While I was contented to make a summary of what happened to MY season, I found that it was also as important to note things that have happened to other teams in general which contributes to FPL. So before that season's data gets wiped, I'll try and sum up everything that happened in that season so that I at least have notes to refer to for next season.
This data will be useful to the people that (A) Believe that certain things will carry over from season to season and (B) don't mind using hindsight as a decent indicator/lesson to use for the coming season.
This data will be useful to the people that (A) Believe that certain things will carry over from season to season and (B) don't mind using hindsight as a decent indicator/lesson to use for the coming season.
Tuesday, 25 June 2013
The point of saving data for FPL
I need to ramble a bit. Figured that this is the best avenue for it while keeping a record of anecdotes.
I needed to question my fundamentals to figure out the point of it all. The topic floated about my head when the fixture list popped up for the 13/14 Premier League, prompting a huge debate (with myself) on data collection, whether for present or past. What pushed me over the edge was the fact that I was attempting to gather FPL points from the past season, which was a ridiculous amount of effort.
On a personal level, I'd like to do things that people don't provide almost for the sake of it, and lately it's becoming a habit. My initial efforts are usually efficient, but as time goes by and I'm adding on top of what I'm doing, I tend to become lazy and I procrastinate and the quality of my work almost plateaus.
But I question myself again: What is the point of coming up with data that cannot be found anywhere else? What is the point of coming up with EPL 13/14 rotations, or assists and goals for the past season?
The answer, after some thought, was quite simple: To justify arguments. I want to say that Leighton Baines had the potential to be good as an offensive and a defensive asset for his price, but I have no evidence. All we "have" are memories from our past season (and maybe some data from the FFS Members and Whoscored) which significantly helps nowadays for argument's sake.
Now, it's time to question why I want to save past FPL data. Does it help me? No. So what does help my knowledge in FPL that I can use in the future?
Rotations are good. Why do I come up with rotations?
Ah, now I get it. Strategies on maximising point potential lately has been really murkifying my thoughts, and this ties with MY strategy: I want to use rotations to maximise my points. But not just in the sense that "5 defs so and so will give you the most points over 19 weeks". I want an ADAPTIVE rotation that can accomodate having form defenses while rotating everyone else.
The strategy now becomes slightly clearer. I have heard many types of strategies (especially on FFS) but I had better list mine here before I forget, again:
1. For GKs, grab Cech and a keeper good for the next 2-3 games (Boruc probably). Send Cech out when a form keeper is found while using the 2nd keeper to cover Cech's bad fixtures (GW2 to united, GW3's blank, GW4's everton trip and GW6's trip to Spurs. Think I might have to let go Cech post GW1)
2. For defs, I'm going completely rotation based as I see none of the elite defenses worth investing in at the moment, due to rotation (City, Arsenal due to Champs league, Spurs because of NO Champions League, Everton because of a new manager), or unfavourable fixtures and no evidence in form (United, Chelsea).
Hence, in defense I'm planning an all-out cheapie assault as I load my money on the heavy hitters up front, depending on pre-season form coupled with potentially cheap new signings.
With the strategy set, the last question remains: While rotations help, does gathering data from past seasons help?
The answer is no. The only "real" data that will help me will be the ones that will record my mistakes. Where I lost out on opportunities to hit huge points, and where I lost points by making unnecessary transfers. So what I will be compiling instead will be my mistakes according to trends of EPL 12/13.
Glad I got that sorted out. Time to start the real work then.
I needed to question my fundamentals to figure out the point of it all. The topic floated about my head when the fixture list popped up for the 13/14 Premier League, prompting a huge debate (with myself) on data collection, whether for present or past. What pushed me over the edge was the fact that I was attempting to gather FPL points from the past season, which was a ridiculous amount of effort.
On a personal level, I'd like to do things that people don't provide almost for the sake of it, and lately it's becoming a habit. My initial efforts are usually efficient, but as time goes by and I'm adding on top of what I'm doing, I tend to become lazy and I procrastinate and the quality of my work almost plateaus.
But I question myself again: What is the point of coming up with data that cannot be found anywhere else? What is the point of coming up with EPL 13/14 rotations, or assists and goals for the past season?
The answer, after some thought, was quite simple: To justify arguments. I want to say that Leighton Baines had the potential to be good as an offensive and a defensive asset for his price, but I have no evidence. All we "have" are memories from our past season (and maybe some data from the FFS Members and Whoscored) which significantly helps nowadays for argument's sake.
Now, it's time to question why I want to save past FPL data. Does it help me? No. So what does help my knowledge in FPL that I can use in the future?
Rotations are good. Why do I come up with rotations?
Ah, now I get it. Strategies on maximising point potential lately has been really murkifying my thoughts, and this ties with MY strategy: I want to use rotations to maximise my points. But not just in the sense that "5 defs so and so will give you the most points over 19 weeks". I want an ADAPTIVE rotation that can accomodate having form defenses while rotating everyone else.
The strategy now becomes slightly clearer. I have heard many types of strategies (especially on FFS) but I had better list mine here before I forget, again:
1. For GKs, grab Cech and a keeper good for the next 2-3 games (Boruc probably). Send Cech out when a form keeper is found while using the 2nd keeper to cover Cech's bad fixtures (GW2 to united, GW3's blank, GW4's everton trip and GW6's trip to Spurs. Think I might have to let go Cech post GW1)
2. For defs, I'm going completely rotation based as I see none of the elite defenses worth investing in at the moment, due to rotation (City, Arsenal due to Champs league, Spurs because of NO Champions League, Everton because of a new manager), or unfavourable fixtures and no evidence in form (United, Chelsea).
Hence, in defense I'm planning an all-out cheapie assault as I load my money on the heavy hitters up front, depending on pre-season form coupled with potentially cheap new signings.
With the strategy set, the last question remains: While rotations help, does gathering data from past seasons help?
The answer is no. The only "real" data that will help me will be the ones that will record my mistakes. Where I lost out on opportunities to hit huge points, and where I lost points by making unnecessary transfers. So what I will be compiling instead will be my mistakes according to trends of EPL 12/13.
Glad I got that sorted out. Time to start the real work then.
Monday, 10 June 2013
u21 Notes - Wildcard
Very low scoring tournament.
No bonuses, no attacking/defending/post-game etc.
Noting plans for reference right before matchday 3.
No bonuses, no attacking/defending/post-game etc.
Noting plans for reference right before matchday 3.
Wednesday, 1 May 2013
GW36 DGW Players: Picks and Considerations
We've been planning for this week for a while. At least I have. I'm sure lots of you that are reading this now would've at least made SOME preparation for DGW36.
Without sounding TOO much like an FFS article, I will attempt to delve into the GW36 options, but most importantly I would like to stress on the potential SINGLE Gameweek options that you can/should bench and even play, because some of these players are simply not worth taking out for a -4, and I will spend as much time as possible to help you draw the line between SELL and HOLD.
I'll also touch on any Wildcard strategies people have, as I can imagine there are managers who have planned to use their wildcards now. Congrats if you are doing so. I let mine go in GW6, and the feeling was somewhere along the lines of something I heard quoted by 2D in Gorrilaz' "Double Bass":
"All of which makes me anxious, at times unbearably so".
Without sounding TOO much like an FFS article, I will attempt to delve into the GW36 options, but most importantly I would like to stress on the potential SINGLE Gameweek options that you can/should bench and even play, because some of these players are simply not worth taking out for a -4, and I will spend as much time as possible to help you draw the line between SELL and HOLD.
I'll also touch on any Wildcard strategies people have, as I can imagine there are managers who have planned to use their wildcards now. Congrats if you are doing so. I let mine go in GW6, and the feeling was somewhere along the lines of something I heard quoted by 2D in Gorrilaz' "Double Bass":
"All of which makes me anxious, at times unbearably so".
Sunday, 28 April 2013
GW34: The Verdict
More Catch up work. Trying to get the prep work out of the way before the monster GW36 article.
*edit* See halfway through this post I realised that GW34 wasn't gonna be a good one either. As Malaysians would put it: DIE LA
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