The Christmas Period, Part 1: FPL Trends

So the Winter break has just concluded as a prelude to the January Transfer Window period, and hence the availability of another Wildcard. Games in December 22, 26, 29 and New Years Day brought many Christmas cheers and fears to FPL managers, and this post will highlight what was suspected that came true, as well as some other anomalies.

I will split this Winter Reading into 2 parts, for the sole reason that the topics mentioned are either heavily biased towards FPL tactics or BPL tactics. This article will be on the FPL section directly. The BPL tactics will come in another post, and I will write about their FPL implications as well.

GW18: The Watchlist

Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW17):

Wishlist:

Watchlist 1: Cazorla, Walker, Sessegnon, Snodgrass, Benteke

Watchlist 2: Torres, Pilkington, Tevez, Podolski, Glen Johnson, Brunt, Cisse

GW 18: The Verdict

Another Green Arrow means that I'm in the top 1 million now. I wonder what is it I'm doing right...

GW 18 Projections

I Have Juan Mata on my side. I am unstoppable.

Guest Article: The Hairy Situation that is Fellaini

I have my first guest article! Many thanks to Ameenkw for writing this up, this article will be up on the Guest Column Archive and I hope that this will be the start of many :D

The Fellaini Dilemma

Fellaini was definitely the name that was mentioned the most in all FPL forums and chats this week. After a few impressive weeks (GW11, 12, 14, 15), his ownership had reached around 47%. As a consequence of his headbutt incident this week, not surprisingly, Fellaini got banned for 3 weeks. This shouldn’t be a surprise since Fellaini is the player with the most fouls committed in EPL this season, and this act is predictable from him.

However, we are not here to discuss his behavior. What we care about as FPL managers is the fact that Fellaini will be out for 3 weeks. This is a long-term suspension, and removing Fellaini is the obvious solution. The real question is who do we get to replace him? This article will discuss the different alternatives, by looking across the different ranges of players.

Pre-Gameweek 18 Transfers

Another Green Arrow! A bittersweet feeling though. The "bad decision" to drop Cazorla instead of Silva last week was a lost opportunity. But we learn.