Thursday, 19 September 2013

GW4 Post Mortem

Sorry about the lack of posts, work has caught up. Again. More of the same from last week, fresh out of the oven this time (and more clues on BPs)

Something new will be out on the weekend I promise



Man United 2 Palace 0

Tactical Setup

United's 4-5-1 had some personnel changes, with Anderson coming in for Cleverley and Rooney replacing Welbeck up top. Fabio also started at right back for Phil Jones. United's substitutions were like for like, with Fellaini, Jazunaj and Hernandez on for Anderson, Young and van Persie respectively. 


Same (mostly) personnel but a completely different setup for Palace this week, Gayle playing relatively wide this game making the team a 4-5-1 with Chamakh up top, Campana the most advance (positionally and passing wise) of the central midfielders prior to the red card. After the red card Palace kept 2 up top while playing a 4-3-2 (3 central mids) relying on the fullbacks and Chamakh to pull out wide for width, while Gayle for Jerome, Chamakh for Kebe and Campana for Guediora were like for like.


Top FPL Performers:

Rooney, United's defence and RVP

Top FPL Underperformers:

No one really, unless you picked up Nani

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Palace last week were labelled to play decently off the long ball and the counterattack, and not surprisingly United didn't allow that to happen. MOTD did a decent job highlighting that Palace (with 11 men) tried to play the ball out from the back which hurt them. We'll see if Swansea can use that to their advantage next.

United were observed to rely on width and Carrick for results, and while their crossing has remained high in volume but ineffective, in open play Wayne Rooney's attacking stats were just about as good as RVP's  Another honourable mention goes to Evra, who attempted 3 crosses while maintaining a 90% pass rate in the first half. 

The Stars: Rooney, RVP and United's defence

As mentioned earlier, Rooney = RVP in terms of attacking stats at the moment. If you're looking to buy Rooney you'd probably pick him up after the derby to confirm that he'll start and finish games. A word of caution though: Rooney's goal was from a set piece and RVP is only limited by the service he gets, so if "alternate" sources of service start to fire (Evra, an in form winger) RVP will still outscore Rooney. 

The Big Decision: Robin van Persie

What justified RVP's output in past seasons were (A) his goal scoring "clinical-ness" and the sheer amount of chances made for him and (B) his assist potential from corners. With the wingers currently faltering (although I'd like to see if Januzaj could change things) and RVP's corners not really finding their men as well as last season, RVP might have to rely on counterattacks and pens/free kicks to deliver FPL-wise. The key decision FPL managers have to make is whether you believe City's defensive "form" will remain, as they have let goals in very easily when actually tested (Cardiff and Hull nearly).

The potential Differentials: Evra, Rooney

Evra has produced his better attacking stats against the smaller teams, so if you're looking at him potentially, wait for after the derby. Rooney for the derby is definitely a decent punt, but the decision is yours on whether you think Rooney will get 90 minutes constantly despite getting 90 minutes this game.

Tottenham 2 Norwich 0

Tactical Setup

Paradigm altering changes with Siggurdson and Eriksen coming in for Chadli and the injured Capoue. With a dual anchor Spurs were a strict 4-2-3-1 with Townsend strictly right sided and Eriksen and Siggy relatively fluid. Holtby's introduction for Eriksen later was like for like while Sandro on for Siggy pushed Paulinho forward. Lamela's late introduction had minimal effect. 


Norwich's starting XI was a carbon copy of last week's. While last week's defensive substitutions worked to their advantage, chasing the game this week they fell short with Howson and Pilkington's introductions like for like while Elmander off for Tettey changed little.


Top FPL Performers:

Siggurdson, Eriksen and Spurs defense

Top FPL Underperformers:

Soldado

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Spurs were last concluded to use Soldado's hold up play, their fullbacks for width and their midfield's direct dribbling as their sources of their attack. With the midfield changed up quite a bit, Eriksen as the most advanced and central of the midfielders currently is the best prospect FPL-wise, with 3 created chances and 3 pops at goal himself. What is worrying that only Soldado took shots in the box (which didn't improve despite Spurs dominance) and the midfielders showed more assist potential rather than goal potential, bar Siggy of course who will always be plagued by worries over getting 90 minutes. The fullbacks were really involved and created 6 chances between them, but mostly outside the box so their assist potential is there but minimal. 


The Stars: Eriksen, Siggy, and the Spurs defense

I'll start with the easy stuff. Siggurdsson's returns from here on will largely depend on his goal potential, so if you feel that Siggy will score more against this type of opposition then by all means pick him up (preferably after Chelsea). 

The Spurs defense fully deserved their clean sheet as Norwich created pathetically little. As for BPs, Vertonghen quite literally stands head and shoulders above rest just from CBI and pass % alone, so unless the Spurs fullbacks get assists, expect Vertonghen to mop up BPS if Spurs get a CS. Dissecting Eriksen's BP potential is more interesting: Many have concluded that assisters lose out on BPs so far, and Eriksen's points were from his assist and pass % (2 + 3 + 3) with the final "nudge" coming from his registered 7 crosses.

In conclusion, BPS for assist-based midfielders are possible, but only if their pass % is worth 2-3 points while having that "something extra" to push them "in the money", whether through crosses or shots.

The Big Decision: Soldado, Paulinho

With a "good" game played by Spurs, FPL-wise Soldado is just too unselfish to take enough shots despite having really good shooting positions. Unless the fullbacks start delivering or he starts being more selfish, Soldado will be ousted by the likes of Benteke, Sturridge and Giroud in his price range. 

As for Paulinho, the occasional assist looks very likely as Spurs' double-pivot does advance occasionally when Eriksen drops deep to receive the ball. For 7.0, there aren't many more scoring at the moment so if you're running a 3-4-3/3-5-2 and you're unable to afford Eriksen for some reason then sure stick to Paulinho, but don't buy him in a hurry.

The potential Differentials: The Spurs Defense, and Norwich

The Spurs defense have only conceded 1 goal in 3 games, all against potentially mid-table opposition. With a good run of fixtures coming up it's "take your pick" really on how to buy a Spurs defender and how much you pay basically reflects how much you believe they'll deliver offensively. Keep in mind that if you get Vertonghen, you're largely relying on Spurs' Clean Sheet potential. 

Save Norwich for the home games. At least we know now that offensively or defensively they're just a reliable rotation option.

Villa 1 Newcastle 2

Tactical Setup

It's musical chairs again in midfield as Bacuna is replaced by El Ahmadi, but the rest of the XI remained the same from last game. Okore was replaced by Clark through injury, while Kozak for El Ahmadi and Weimann off for Tonev changed little. 


Newcastle reverted back to their 4-5-1 variant, Ameobi sacrificed for Cabaye while Remy came in for Marveaux. Newcastle's substitutions were all like for like (Remy to Gouffran, Anita to Tiote) while their latest one was to eat up time at the end.


Top FPL Performers:

Ben Arfa, Goufffran, Benteke

Top FPL Underperformers:

You wouldn't expect anyone else to be picked up here. Newcastle defenders maybe

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Villa have fashioned their best chances through Benteke, and this game didn't show that much has changed. One thing to note though is that among the 3 Villa forwards, Agbonlahor does have the better shooting chances while Weimann is the one that runs down the flank for his fullbacks to cross. Do keep that in mind when selecting between them in the future.

Newcastle are an improving side and took lots of shots last week. For a side away from home they had 17 pops at goal, notably Papiss Cisse missing a good chunk of them but Ben Arfa had more on target. Remy and Cabaye also took some in dangerous positions so if they do get extended runs in the side they're not bad options to have.


The Stars: The Goalscorers

Quite frankly the 3 goalscorers deserved their bonuses. Gouffran's match-winning goal got him the 9 points he needed really, and this actually makes a huge case for future "supersubs" who go on match winning goal streaks such as Dzeko last year. Do keep an eye out for that. No one else came close. 


The Big Decision: Newcastle Defense

The Newcastle defense weren't punished heavily enough by Villa's wasteful attackers, so those owning should be aware that if Newcastle leak goals, its one of those "its about time" moments while offensively you can only label them as inconsistent. Krul's error also fails to convince.


The potential Differentials: Remy and Cabaye

Cabaye and Remy's advanced positions were very encouraging, and over 90 minutes they had OK games, shooting and creating some. Picking either one up for Hull specifically is a tough ask, but for their prices you'd probably wait for form to kick in as they aren't showing home or away trends yet. 

Hull 1 Cardiff 1

Tactical Setup

The same XI took the field for Hull as last game, with Brady later taken off for Quinn being like for like. 


Cardiff made 2 changes, with their right flank completely altered as Bellamy and Conolly last week were replaced by Cowie and Theophile-Catherine. Kim off for Maynard at half time brought slightly more shooting threat as Cardiff went 4-4-2 to chase the game, while Campbell off for Gestede was also like for like. 


Top FPL Performers:

Whittingham, Cowie and Davies

Top FPL Underperformers:

Campbell, Kim and Brady

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Cardiff were touted as decent options for the odd home game, and defensively that certainly seems to be the case.Away from home, Cardiff have a policy of Campbell in the box and a late runner which usually is one of the midfielders. In this case Whittingham profited, but don't expect chances like these to fall regularly for the Cardiff midfielders. Hull are an improving side and they showed it again, outshooting Cardiff and missing some really good chances. Cardiff defender owners will be more than wary to field them away from home.

The Stars: Whittingham, Cowie 

Whittingham's shooting stats were typical, with the goal a rare run into the box. Perhaps chasing the game Whittingham might do that more, so if you have Whittingham it's not a bad thing, just don't expect big returns despite having good fixtures. Cowie started in place of the injured Bellamy, but with Spurs up next you're better off holding on to whoever you have (unless it's Nani, but there are better anyway). 

The Big Decision: Campbell, Brady

Both had really, really poor shooting stats. For their price you shouldn't expect much in the first place as Cardiff and Hull are relatively shot shy. Owners can keep, there really is no need to panic sell. Not like there are real better candidates in the same position anyway (statistically at least). 

The Potential Differential: Aluko

With Hull getting the better volume and quality of shots, Aluko shone the brightest, shooting quite a lot in open play. With West Ham, Sunderland and Villa coming up at home Aluko is a better punt than Brady or Koren at 5.0, if you're looking at grabbing a midfield of say, Eriksen/Ozil/Walcott/Mirallas/Lampard or something of the sort.

Sunderland 1 Arsenal 3

Tactical Setup

Sunderland welcomed a host of changes with Mavrias starting ahead of Giaccherini, Ki in central midfield alongside Vaughan and Roberge in for the suspended O'Shea. Fletcher and Altidore started up front instead of Ji and Wickham. Gardner on for Vaughan, as well as Borini for Mavrias were like for like and Wickham's introduction at the end also didn't alter much.


Arsenal's 4-5-1 variant had Flamini at the base this time instead of a fixed double pivot last week, pushing Ramsey and Wilshere's average position pretty far up. If this set of personnel persists, Ramsey and Wilshere will both be very attractive options in the coming weeks. Vermaelen's introduction for Ozil turned Arsenal into a 5-4-1, while Theo Walcott's late sub put Wilshere temporarily on the right while Monreal operated left. Strange times. 


Top FPL Performers:

Giroud, Ozil and Ramsey

Top FPL Underperformers:

Walcott, and poor Altidore

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Sunderland were by far the worst at everything last week, and this week when they were dominated by Arsenal in the first half it was no different. The Black Cats were relatively quiet until the introduction of Borini, but more notably Sunderland were at least attempting more shots. No one really stood out (yet) though, so until Di Canio fixes a starting XI Sunderland is a minefield. 

In this game, without Cazorla or Rosicky Arsenal had Wilshere and Flamini on the same field, which prompted Wilshere and Ramsey much further forward than usual. With Ramsey right and Wilshere left, Wilshere created while Ramsey took shots more. Flamini was confirmed to be the deepest of the 3 midfielders. 

The Stars: Giroud, Ramsey, Ozil

Ramsey's goal output was 2 goals from 3 shots today, which is encouraging but the jury is out on whether he'll consistently play like this, especially when Cazorla returns to the side. Kudos to any owners, but buyers be wary of Cazorla's presence when he returns. Giroud hit 1 in 5 attempts, goal and assist threat remaining constant between the 2 halves, which is encouraging to see. Ozil's output was very Cazorla like: loads of key passes and shots from outside. How long this success will last I don't know, but for now owners can definitely keep him without worry. 

The Big Decision: Walcott

Walcott's shooting has been scarily consistent in terms of shot area and volume. This is probably the first case of a player in FPL actually "due" a goal for the chances he gets consistently, so owners please don't panic and downgrade someone else. 

The Potential Differential: Sunderland

When Sunderland came to life, Altidore had the long range effort and the disallowed goal. Connor Wickham had 2 better attempts as a late sub while Gardner had 1 penalty and 6 efforts from outside. If Sunderland were to change their fortunes, expect the aforementioned players to be among the goalscorers.

Souhampton 0 West Ham 0

Tactical Setup

Southampton's 4-5-1 last week was much more attacking this week, with Osvaldo taking up a more advanced position making Southampton a very narrow 4-2-2-2. Lallana and Rodriguez were the widest of the midfielders but largely occupied central attacking positions. Shaw off for Chambers was like for like, while Ward-Prowse's introduction for Lallana was to introduce more crossing to Southampton's attacking game plan. 


The injured Downing was replaced by Ravel Morrison this week, taking up central midfield alongside Noble, pushing Diame further upfield compared to last week. Demel was later withdrawn for Rat, who took up left back while O'Brien shifted over to right back. Morrison to Taylor and Maiga to Vaz Te were like for like.


Top FPL Performers:

Both sides' defences

Top FPL Underperformers:

Nolan and Southampton's attack in general

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Southampton have been shooting poorly and have largely been reliant on Ward-Prowse's crosses to create their best chances. Since Ward-Prowse didn't start, Lallana took over crossing duty from corners while in open play, Jay Rodriguez had more key passes than anyone else. Shooting wise, Osvaldo and Lambert's outputs were similar but both have improved compared to last week. 

With the Downing-Nolan alliance broken, West Ham were a pretty new-look side. Their best shooting stats came from Diame, who looked more dangerous with his default position being more advanced. West Ham didn't create a lot in general up top though, so beyond Diame there really isn't much to take from West Ham's attack. 

The Stars: Both Defences

Southampton's clean sheet came down to West Ham doing really badly in attack. Fonte's pass % (2 + 4 + 2) on top of CBI were enough to earn him the 9BPS needed for maximum bonus, while Clyne was basically the only other defender to get BPS for his pass %. West Ham's defence was actually living on the edge this game, and they owed Jaaskelainen a great deal for their shut-out. 

One thing I'd like to highlight here is the danger of hoping for Bonuses from a West Ham CS. Within the backline only Collins and O'Brien come close to making 30 passes a game, and even so Collins' pass % is atrocious while O'Brien only barely makes it. In conclusion, unless you expect West Ham to WIN with a CS, don't expect any bonus points unless Collins has a monster CBI game or O'Brien contributes offensively (which is sporadic at the moment).

The Big Decision: Both sides' attackers

West Ham are not worth investing in unless they improve. Southampton offence is significantly better at home. Rotate accordingly or expect 2-point games away from home.

The potential Differentials: Jay Rodriguez

Advocating the 3-5-2 with expensive midfielders emerging (Ozil, Eriksen, Michu), owners who are unwilling to let go of RVP can use Jay Rodriguez as a home option. Rodriguez has clocked 90 minutes in both home games so far, shooting and creating enough chances for his teammates to warrant his price tag.

Everton 1 Chelsea 0

Tactical Setup

With Fellaini out, Barry's arrival was timely for Everton. Pienaar's injury also meant that Mirallas played on the left while Naismith filled in on the right (the illustration below has that the other way around but pass patterns and heat maps indicate otherwise). Everton's only relevant sub was McCarthy on for Mirallas, which pushed Barkley to the left wing, turning 4-2-3-1 into 4-5-1. 


Chelsea's 4-2-3-1 from last Gameweek remained, but critically Lampard didn't start in the double pivot, replaced by Mikel. Up front Mata and Eto'o came in at the expense of Oscar and Kevin de Bruyne from the Man United game. The latter pair eventually featured, coming in for Mata and Schurrle. As a last throw of the dice Mourinho introduced Torres for Cole, turning Chelsea into a 3-5-2 which unfortunately did not reap rewards.


Top FPL Performers:

Naismith and the entire Everton defence

Top FPL Underperformers:

All of Chelsea, and Mirallas

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared 

With a new look front 4, this Chelsea side showed much more promise offensively. Chelsea's shooting is relatively spread out between the Chelsea XI, Mata creates most of them, taking some shots himself. Schurrle creates most for Chelsea in open play without Mata but he doesn't shoot enough to warrant investment.

Everton have been relying on their previous strengths to create chances, i.e. their left flank and MIrallas/Coleman/Barkley from the other side. Post-transfer window it hasn't been the case at all, with the midfielders crossing the ball more and the defenders only tasked to link up play. Martinez' "ball playing" influence is starting to take its toll on the team, and with an increase in the quality of his players they retain the ball better, but they will be prone to the occasional error (which needed Barry's heroics to cover up).

The Stars: The Everton Defence and Naismith

The difference in Everton without the Pienaar-Baines partnership is staggering. Only 9 BPS were needed for bonuses this time, and with Everton's CS, Baines Jagielka and Distin easily meet the "defensive trifecta" of pass volume, pass % and CS to get the "basic" 9 BPS. 

Naismith's goal was a result of a good run into the box from wide. His shooting stats were similar to Mirallas' in previous weeks, but unless he does a performance repeat you shouldn't consider bringing him. Naismith is also classified as a striker, and so to sacrifice any of your front 3 for him to permanently start, you'll need a REALLY, REALLY good backline or a midfield of Hazard/Michu/Wally/Eriksen/Ozil or something. 

The Big Decision: Mirallas, Chelsea

Mirallas in this game had 2 shots, both on target and 3 key passes, which is a huge improvement from his previous weeks. Since you've probably held him through both his price drops, you might as well save your free transfer as Mirallas isn't a dead fish at all. To pick him up though, you'll need really, really big balls. Or some spare cash on the side. 

Chelsea players that you have held through the international break and price drops are not dead fish. Hazard is probably the only worry, Lampard was expected to get a 1-pointer SOMEWHERE down the line, so hold on to him (Godspeed if you bought him for Fulham) and hold onto Hazard too. Hazard's an "up to you" though, his stats are there but not Walcott or Eriksen/Ozil like, so he's a risk for now. 

The potential Differentials: Eto'o, Ramires

Eto'o's was a decent goal threat throughout the match, and if he starts against Fulham he'll be a decent punt when Chelsea's games ease up (post Man City, GW9). Ramires has also been racking up 90 minutes consistently, and with this change in position he matched Mata's output. Decent player to play against weaker sides (while being nailed) and easily benchable. 

Stoke 0 Man City 0

Tactical Setup

Stoke persisted with their expected 4-5-1, personnel exactly the same as last week. Etherington, Jones and Adam off for Ireland, Crouch and Arnautovic respectively were like for like substitutions.


Man City heavily rotated their squad as preparation for their opening Champions League game, both Aguero and Dzeko making way for Negredo and Jovetic. Nasri and Milner also started ahead of Navas and the injured Silva. At the back Lescott was dropped for Javi Garcia. As the game went on Aguero was introduced for the tiring Jovetic while Navas was brought on for Nasri to introduce some width. 


Top FPL Performers:

Both defences

Top FPL Underperformers:

Negredo, Yaya Toure

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Stoke have most of their joy in attack through set pieces, so anyone in the side could score really. So far we know that Walters takes pens, Pennant takes some free kicks and so far Stoke haven't scored from open play. City have shown this game that they are not afraid to rotate their players for the sake of preservation, so now we know that any investment in anyone from Man City does come with the risk of them being dropped. 

The Stars: Both Defences

Anyone meeting 30 passes with 80-90% pass rate would have been in the bonuses for this scoreline, and while Nastasic was the only one that topped the lot this week, I'd like to just quickly point out 2 observation for future reference: 
  • Man CIty's Centerbacks hit 80-90% pass rate quite regularly. Nastasic's 2 games so far have hit 88 and 91% so he is a verified bonus magnet (if City get a CS). The fullbacks fluctuate quite a bit between 70 and 90% too, so you can classify them as "in with a shout". 
  • Stoke defenders in general have decent pass percentages but most importantly, Wilson, Shawcross and Pieters regularly fulfill the pass requirements. Their CBI stats are about the same over time, so as long as you own one of these three you should have a chance of getting bonus points when Stoke keep a CS.

The Big Decision: Negredo, Yaya Toure

Man City were desperately devoid of creativity, and as a result no one created or shot well enough this game. However, both of these players should be given the benefit of the doubt here as everyone will expect the first team to line up against Man United, where Negredo and Yaya Toure will get a better chance at proving their worth. 

The Potential Differentials:

Pieters, Wilson or Shawcross but I've covered them already.

Fulham 1 West Brom 1

Tactical Setup

With Bent injured, Kasami started behind Berbatov. The midfield didn't change compared to last week but Hughes' injury meant that Senderos stepped in. Richardson returned from injury, relegating Riise to the bench. Amorebieta on for Richardson and Berbatov off for Rodallega were like for like substitutions. 


New signing Anichebe started up top alongside Anelka, keeping Shane Long out of the first XI. Brunt and Amalfitano also came in for the off-form Sinclair and Morrison. The latter pair were introduced later in the game anyway for the former pair, while Berahino also came on later for Anichebe, which was a straight swap.


Top FPL Performers:

Senderos, Sidwell, McAuley

Top FPL Underperformers:

Berbatov for the punters

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

While nothing positive has been picked up from West Brom so far, this week at least they managed to muster 7 efforts against Fulham for the first hour, Anichebe taking half of them on his own. Amalfitano also had a good game, creating 3 chances from 7 crosses in open play. 

Fulham didn't have their shots concentrated on a single player but Ruiz and Berbatov took the majority of shots in the box. Fulham also had 3 rightly disallowed goals which is irrelevant now, but at least Fulham are a decent force offensively at home, and it's just a matter of timing the purchase of their offensive assets.

The Stars and Potential Differentials: Sidwell, McAuley, Senderos, Olsson, Ridgewell

Both goalscorers were off corners, so in terms of consistency don't expect the former 2 to have a repeat performance next week.

Take away Senderos' assist and suddenly Olsson and Ridgewell are in the mix for bonus points too. While all these names are probably irrelevant for now, I'd like to quickly point out that the West Brom defenders barely made their minimum pass requirement but Olsson had 18(!) clearances alone to standout slightly in the BPS department. Senderos got his BPS from his pass accuracy.

The Big Decision: Berbatov

Berbatov's shooting was decent this week for a 7.3 priced forward. His good fixtures after the Chelsea game make it tempting to keep him, and since there aren't any form players emerging from that price range, there really is no reason to jump ship unless you have 2 free transfers or cash in hand.

If you are looking for alternatives however, Lambert's fixtures and shooting stats are equally good (pick up after Pool). Remy is getting 90 minutes and contributing greatly to attack but might not be FPL-worthy yet (fixtures are also not on his side). Picking up Lukaku is basically buying "potential" at this point, so the verdict between these 4 candidates (Berba, Lukaku, Lambert and Remy) is to give them all 1 more game to see who is the likeliest to deliver. 

Swansea 2 Liverpool 2

Tactical Setup

Swansea kept their 4-2-3-1 from last week, with Britton in for Canas and Dyer in for the injured Pablo Hernandez. The substitutions were more interesting - de Guzman's introduction for Dyer briefly turned Swansea into a lopsided 4-4-1-1 with an extremely narrow left winger (de Guzman). After equalising Swansea changed COMPLETELY, Bony's departure shifting Michu up front while Britton dropped deeper, enabling Shelvey and de Guzman to pull the strings in central midfield while substitute Pozuelo operated on the right, Routledge left.


Liverpool lined up 4-2-3-1 again, but with Coutinho in the middle behind Sturridge instead of Aspas from last week. Moses took up the left flank on his debut, Sakho started in central defence in place of the injured Agger, and Wisdom played at right-back due to Johnson's injury. Coutinho's injury in the second half meant that Aspas took his place directly, while Wisdom off for Toure and Moses off for Sterling were also like for like. 


Top FPL Performers:

Moses, Sturridge, Michu, Shelvey

Top FPL Underperformers:

Liverpool's defence, Coutinho, and remnants of Aspas/Gerrard owners

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Liverpool have been taking the lead and choosing to protect it instead of extending it, so for Liverpool to fall behind so early this game was uncharted territory for them. Swansea were as open at home as against Man United last home game. Observations:
  • When Liverpool chase the game, 2 main features stand out: Their pressing high up (which benefits Sturridge), and their creativity from the left (which benefits Moses). Coutinho centrally was poor for a 9m FPL player. 
  • When Liverpool led, they reverted back to their deep defending, counterattacking style and successfully held out until half time.  
  • Whether trailing, level or ahead, Swansea emphasises on short passes, with the occasional advanced runner (usually Shelvey). Bony and Michu are the biggest benefactors of this playing style, having 5 decent chances between them including the goal.

The Stars: Shelvey, Michu, Sturridge, Moses

Not surprising that these 4 names have delivered in a very open game, despite Liverpool's goals coming from Shelvey errors. Michu's output is increasing, but so far his best shooting days have come from home games (4 attempts against United, 6 attempts against Liverpool out of his 11 attempts in 4 games so far) while his chance creation is about the same whether home or away.

Shelvey is a good 5th midfielder candidate (for home games) so ideal pickup is GW8, just after the second international break. Moses needs 1 more game to prove that he's consistent. He faded terribly with the rest of LIverpool's attack after taking the lead. Sturridge's shooting stats didn't change. 

The Big Decision: Coutinho, and Liverpool defenders

Coutinho is injured until late October. SELL. Liverpool's defence have finally conceded a goal, albeit with a makeshift backline. Liverpool have home games against 3 of the 5 worst attacking sides in the league (WBA, CRY, SOU) and away games to 2 sides who are bottom half (sun, new) so for the next 5 games any Mignolet or Enrique owners will be feeling pretty safe despite conceding 2 on Monday. 

The Potential Differentials: Both defences

Liverpool's rearguard had quite a lot to do as a result of a combination of tactics and game flow. Skrtel and Sakho were the biggest benefactors here, having 6BPS despite leaking 2 goals. Swansea's defenders also stood out with Chico and Williams nailing 6BPS each while the fullbacks hit 4 each.

The "line in the sand" you would draw with purchasing anyone from the Swans' backline would be how you judge their attacking potential: While the CBs will consistently get 4-5 BPS (which means a chance of bonus with a CS), Ben Davies regularly puts in crosses (8 against both home games) and has really advanced positioning.

For Liverpool defenders, you can't look past the CBs for now, but with competition between the 3 candidates for 2 slots you have to be absolutely certain with your picks before you you hit the transfer button. Enrique is the most nailed so far, but he doesn't do enough to warrant constant "bonus threat" and will rely on his actual attacking output to deliver FPL-wise.

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