Wednesday 1 May 2013

GW36 DGW Players: Picks and Considerations

We've been planning for this week for a while. At least I have. I'm sure lots of you that are reading this now would've at least made SOME preparation for DGW36.

Without sounding TOO much like an FFS article, I will attempt to delve into the GW36 options, but most importantly I would like to stress on the potential SINGLE Gameweek options that you can/should bench and even play, because some of these players are simply not worth taking out for a -4, and I will spend as much time as possible to help you draw the line between SELL and HOLD.

I'll also touch on any Wildcard strategies people have, as I can imagine there are managers who have planned to use their wildcards now. Congrats if you are doing so. I let mine go in GW6, and the feeling was somewhere along the lines of something I heard quoted by 2D in Gorrilaz' "Double Bass":

"All of which makes me anxious, at times unbearably so".
Let's start with the obvious stuff then. No tiers in this article, I'll be beginning this piece with a list of players that people already have, and then I'll quickly touch on the "maybe"s.

Must-have/Popular:


TOT (SOU, che):  Bale

MCI (swa, WBA):  Tevez, Hart

WIG (wba, SWA):  Kone, Maloney

WBA (WIG, mci):  Lukaku

CHE (mun, TOT): Mata, Hazard

Right nothing about this list that really blows brains, bar the omission of a certain Spaniard. Will go through this case in the "Differentials/Risque" List

Another thing to note about this is list is that you don't HAVE to have all the players mentioned. There are already 8 players in the list above, which doesn't really leave much more room for differentials and RVP (if you plan to keep him), but having 6/7 out of the above 8 will pretty much keep you in touch with whoever's paying attention to the game at this stage of the season, as well as help you hack through dead/ghost teams if you're still in the woods.

Differentials/Maybe:


TOT (SOU, che): Vertonghen, Walker, Lloris, Adebayor, Defoe

MCI (swa, WBA): Silva, Aguero, Nasri, Toure, Any of the defenders

SWA (MCI, wig): Michu, de Guzman

WIG (wba, SWA): McManaman, Boyce, Stam, Robles

WBA (WIG, mci):  Morrison, Foster, Ridgewell

CHE (mun, TOT): Lampard, Luiz, Ba, Oscar

Firstly, a quick profile of the players in this list. The players mentioned here are firstly INCONSISTENT in terms of form and FPL returns. These players very rarely produce stats that will convince you to keep them for more than 6 weeks, unlike the players in the "must-haves" who at least create something decent 4 games out of 5 in terms of shooting, chances created etc. 

I don't recommend that you should have a "set amount" of players from this list. Instead, allow me to explain how you should use this list to your advantage. Wildcarders aside, I'm quite sure that most players would REALISTICALLY have 6-7 DGW players from GW33, leaving only 3-4 slots for GW36 players that they've been saving up for, such as Davies, any City and/or Chelsea player and whatnot. Adding 3 transfers between GW33 and GW36, the typical "active" FPL player would have 6-7 DGW players for GW36, unless they've taken mammoth hits along the way. 

What to take from this is that you DO NOT HAVE to have 10-11 DGW players for GW36. The key to optimum squad utilisation here is how much "gain" you can get by taking hits for bringing in new players. Players from this list should be brought in only if you're satisfied with the number of "must-have"s in your squad. I'll give an example later.

Everyone else


So, the important stuff. Who to get rid of for hits, and who to keep for later weeks. Gonna keep it simple and stick to 2/3 lists here, there's an OBVIOUS KEEP list, an UP TO YOU/BENCH list and a DEFINITE DROP list. Will try and give reasons for each player, but for every other player NOT on the list, assume that it's a DEFINITE DROP. Do keep in mind, of course, that you ONLY NEED ELEVEN to play this week. If you already have a desirable starting XI that comes from the DGW list and the OBVIOUS KEEP list, just stop. No more hits. 

Just in case, don't bother bringing any single Gameweek players in. Save it for next week.

OBVIOUS KEEP AND PLAY


Fulham - Everyone except the midfielders. Defensively Reading might fold for a 0-0, and anyone offensively can grab Berba's potential points. Shame he's injured.

Arsenal - Walcott, Cazorla, Podolski (for whoever that might still have him). Defensively Sagna/Mert are really, really good differentials against the side with the worst home record offensively.

Sunderland - Sessegnon is suspended. I've come across lineups with Johnson, McClean and Graham, and now THIS IS their time to shine.

Norwich - None. Benteke is just too bloody scary. 

West Ham - Any defenders, Andy Carroll. Carroll's home form has been the key to his points return, and it's just such a shame that I couldn't pick him up for the last DGW. Keep him for this one.

Reading - None.

Newcastle - None. Cisse will be in the next list.

Stoke - None. Start them at your own risk. 

Villa - Benteke, Weimann (he's gathering numbers), Guzan and Agbonlahor. Everyone else is on the next list. 

Liverpool - No one. Everyone's in the next list.

Everton - None. Everton have been pretty inconsistent of late, and I know there's a derby coming up, so you DO have a reason to field any attackers from either side, just don't expect much back. Personally I'd take a hit to bench/sell any attackers just to bring in a DGW.

Southampton - None. 

Man United - None. 

QPR - None. 

KEEP AT YOUR OWN RISK AND/OR BENCH


Fulham - Berba. not sure myself how long he's out for, just bench him if you can. If not, sell.

Arsenal - Everyone not in the previous list. Bench your Artetas, bench your Ramseys. Good first sub to have. Play if you have no one else, but don't send them out for a hit unless it's for a MUST-HAVE.

Sunderland - None. Anyone from Sunderland is very, very playable. If you're not safe with fielding that player, sell him. 

Norwich - Bench your RMartins if you can, only play them if you really have no one else. You never know, Villa are still quite porous at the back and any Norwich attackers you have can be brought to the fore if you don't have anyone better. Sell if you're moving for a MUST-HAVE.

West Ham - Bench everyone else. They're still playable for Reading for the weekend. Bar Carroll, everyone else should be reasonably cheap enough, and there really is no reason to sell them, once again, unless you're moving for a MUST-HAVE.

Reading - Try and get rid of any Reading if you can. Some will have "that feeling" that Reading will put one past Fulham, and of course you have every reason to try. There are just better options at the moment.

Newcastle - Bench Cisse. He'll be vital for the QPR game, and might give Arsenal a bloody good fight too. Sell everyone else. 

Stoke - None. I'd sell anyone I have from this team. Stoke have done enough. Just enough. and they're literally done. 

Villa - None. Beyond Benteke, the only "owned" players in this side are Guzan, Lowton and Clark. Lowton and Clark are sells for sure, but Guzan at this point is probably a PLAY if you're feeling lucky.

Liverpool - Bench everyone else that isn't in the previous list. Bench the Enriques, bench the Gerrards, there just, simply, is, better at the moment. 

Everton - Bench everyone. It's gonna be a tough pill to swallow benching players such as Baines and Fellaini and Anichebe, so you're going to have to make a decision here. However, given a choice between Liverpool and Everton players, I'm more willing to let go of Everton players than Liverpool. At least Liverpool show consistent offensive AND defensive stats, while Everton can be quite sloppy at the back and concede "soft goals" so to speak.

Southampton - I'd hold Southampton players over Liverpool AND Everton players at this point. Bench them all, and keep them for the long run. I'm predicting a Lambert goal in the next game or the final game of the season.

Man United - RVP. There more people than you think who have PLANNED to bench RVP due to the cheap options in midfield and up front for DGW players. Really, really admire these managers for keeping RVP for so long, and I hope they do well, but now really IS the time for RVP owners to go 3-5-2 and bench RVP. Everyone else is a sell.

QPR - None. 

I'll expand on this this post later in the week for the "final list" if I have time, but for now just assume that everyone not on either list is a "sell". 

Strategy

With that out of the way, it's time to come up with a decent squad composition of what will probably yield maximum returns without taking too many hits. Long story short, have 6-7 from the must haves, count the number of people in OBVIOUS KEEP and fill the rest with Differential/Maybes. Ideally your bench will consist of the BENCH list as well, so I"ll end this post with an example team (which is a template that Wildcarders can use and it's up to you to chop and change really), with a "realistic" 2 or 3 "obvious keeps" in the mix for good measure.

Must-Haves:

Bale, Hart, Maloney, Lukaku, Hazard/Mata, Tevez

Keep and Play:

Walcott, Sagna

Differentials/Maybe:

Vertonghen, Luiz, Nasri/Toure

Bench:

RVP, McCarthy (or whichever 2nd keeper), 

Setup:

Hart (2nd keeper)

Vertonghen Luiz Sagna (Clyne Enrique)

Bale Maloney Hazard/Mata Nasri/Toure Walcott

Tevez Lukaku (RVP/Sturridge)

And there you go. All the best. Will update later with different strategies, probably in a new post altogether. Will also update this post later on why I feel Michu is not essential. Includes stats etc.

Edit: 2 May 2013


So with the basics out of the way, let's move on to certain topics that I haven't given my two cents on.

Michu


Anyone who has been paying attention to FPL knows about the Spaniard. While the general consensus towards Michu is that he gets the "must-have" status, (understandably so), I will attempt to list his pros and cons for the near and far future, as well as how you can deal with him (if you already own him say).

Pros:

(1) OoP

(2) Attacking threat. Out of the Double Gameweek players, Michu ticks the boxes for attempts on goal and FPL points delivered as well.

(3) Class. Michu has proven that he can score against big sides such as goals against Arsenal and Man United from recent memory.

Cons:

(1) Form. While Michu has topped the shooting stats in the last 6 games, over the last 3 (against midtable to elite opposition I might add) Michu has dropped to 6th in the standings behind the likes of favourites Bale, Oscar and Fellaini. Looking at the last game v Chelsea alone, Michu ranks 9th in the shooting stats (all stats courtesy of Fantasyfootballgeek by the way). Picking a player that is dropping in form is mighty risky imo, and hence this will be my first relatively solid reason for not having Michu over the likes of Walcott, Hazard and Mata.

(2) Differential. Out of all the supposed "must-haves" among the DGW teams, Michu is the midfielder that has the worst fixtures offensively and is probably the most owned player (bar Bale) that you can use to catch your opponents. Michu is literally the "weak link" of the DGW and differentiating from Michu specifically will at least give you the best chance to help you catch your rivals.


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