Friday 25 October 2013

GW6 Post Mortem

Sorry for being a wee bit late, stuff came up, but here it is... Will post GW8 Post Mortem straight after



Tottenham 1 Chelsea 1

Tactical Setup

Spurs, 4-2-3-1: The Spurs starting XI against Cardiff last week also started against Chelsea. Chadli, Holtby and Defoe on for Townsend, Eriksen and Soldado respectively were all like for like swaps.


Chelsea, 4-2-3-1: David Luiz was brought back in to partner Terry in central defence at the expense of Cahill. Lampard came into midfield, slotting alongside Mikel while Ramires was pushed up behind Torres, who came in for Eto'o. Trailing at half time, Mata was brought on for Mikel, pulling Ramires deeper alongside Lampard while Mata played centrally, Oscar going to the flanks. Schurrle on for Hazard was like for like, and Oscar was brought off for Azpilicueta after Torres' red card to protect the draw.


Top FPL Performers:

Both goalscorers and Soldado 

Top FPL Underperformers:

Hazard, Oscar, and both defences


Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

The pattern of play was a tale of two halves really, the difference being 1 substitution by Chelsea: Mata's introduction.

In the first half, Spurs' fullbacks didn't create from wide, and Soldado was rarely involved in Spurs' possession play, but the 3 midfielders, being close to each other due to their narrowness, outnumbered Mikel and Lampard in the center and Chelsea were hit hard through the center. Eriksen and Townsend both had created chances while Paulinho's runs from deep garnered 3 attempts on goal and Sigurdsson took the lead for Spurs. 

Mata in the second half helped Chelsea do the exact same thing to Spurs. Ramires made the same runs from deep that neither Mikel or Lampard effectively did, and it wasn't surprising that Mata and Ramires played the 1-2 that led to Terry's goal from the resulting free kick. In a nutshell, Chelsea's and Tottenham's key strengths were on showcase here, Paulinho Eriksen and Sigurdsson beating Mikel and Lampard in the first half, and then Mata Hazard/Oscar and Ramires overrunning Paulinho and Dembele in the center. 

The Stars: The goalscorers and Soldado

As stated earlier, Siggy's goal was a result of Spurs using their advantages over Chelsea, and quite frankly any of the 3 midfielders could have contributed more FPL-wise (Siggy, Paulinho or Eriksen). If you have Sigurdsson, just keep him for the next 4-5 games, even though his output has been in the category of "1 shot 1 goal". Buy him if you have a decent bench. 

Terry's goal was a manifestation of the bigger picture: With Mata on the field, Chelsea were much better. If Mata gets starts soon, he'll be a steal at under 10 million. 

Soldado's assist was somewhat fortunate but you do get that by being in the right place at the right time. Don't expect this type of assists in the future, but do hold onto him as fixtures are at least falling into place, if you've held for this long anyway. He is by no means a BUY though. 

The Big Decision: Hazard, Oscar, Eriksen and both defences

Hazard and Oscar had decent spells when Chelsea were chasing the game, but the main catalyst was Mata. Keep Oscar (Sell Hazard, he's not worth the price tag) as Norwich and Cardiff are next, and Oscar so far has been a brilliant flat track bully. 

Both defences are also worth keeping as both defences have been among the most miserly this season so far, among the top teams in terms of "least shots on target conceded". 

The potential Differential: Mata

There has been no evidence of starts from Mata yet, but do keep him on your watchlist for now. Post international break things might get interesting.

Fulham 1 Cardiff 2

Tactical Setup

Fulham, 4-4-1-1: Fulham lined up similar to the starting XI against Chelsea last week, welcoming Berbatov alongside Bent up front, Kasami moved to the right wing while Duff was benched. Parker's injury prompted Karagounis' introduction, which was like for like. Martin Jol made a surprisingly early substitution, Ruiz' central positioning meant that Fulham were still 4-4-1-1 but realtively narrow, Ruiz and Kasami constantly drifting out of position. Bent off for Taarabt later was like for like.


Cardiff, 4-4-2 Diamond: For the first time this season (iirc) Cardiff start with 2 strikers up front, Odemwingie starting alongside Campbell up front at Bellamy's expense. Kim, Campbell and Odemwingie off for Mutch, Maynard and Bellamy were all like for like subs.


Top FPL Performers:

All the goalscorers, and Whittingham

Top FPL Underperformers:

Berbatov

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

For a team that's supposedly better at home than away, Fulham were very suspect at the back, particularly from set pieces. They didn't do much despite trailing, and required a tactical substitution to produce an equaliser. Fulham actually created enough for a winner but didn't convert their chances, and were beaten by a moment of quality.

Cardiff had a game plan themselves, banking on the numbers game with set pieces, and to their credit had a number of decent chances at goal while leading. The same plan persisted, and despite failing to convert they managed to pull out a rabbit out of the hat here, the winner fully deserved.

The Stars: All 3 goalscorers and Whittingham

While Caulker's goal was off a set piece, Ruiz and Mutch's goals were sweet long range strikes and sadly they didn't do much more to warrant investment. Whittingham for a 5.0 midfielder has set pieces duties on his side and based on Cardiff's game plan, should be a decent option for a 5th midfielder candidate.

The Big Decision: Berbatov

1 shot off target over 90 minutes in a winnable home game really is a huge SELL sign, and for his price you're much better off with Lambert or Lukaku at the moment. 

The potential Differential: Kasami

For those who are looking for a sup 5.0 midfielder, Kasami made 5 attempts at goal in the second half ALONE as Fulham searched for a winner. For a sub coming off the bench you can't ask for more than that. 

Hull 1 West Ham 0

Tactical Setup

Hull, 4-4-2: With Chester's injury, Figueroa's return was timely as he took up the left back spot, Rosenior switching over to right back and Faye covering for Chester in central defence. Elmohamady was pushed up to the right wing, replacing Quinn from last week. Graham for Sagbo, Brady for Meyler and Aluko for Boyd were all like for like subs.


West Ham, 4-2-3-1: Same as last week, but Collins was dropped here for Tomkins while Rat continues to keep Demel out from the side. Sam Allardyce made attacking substitutions in the second half, while Petric for Maiga was like for like, the Hammers' wingers were replaced with shooters, Vaz Te and Downing coming on for Jarvis and Diame respectively. 


Top FPL Performers:

Hull's defence and goalscorer Brady

Top FPL Underperformers:

West Ham defence

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Hull are a decent all-rounded side, with the potential to deliver from open play (Aluko), set pieces (Brady) and this time Brady's set piece duty delivered. Hull overall did enough to score to be honest, but without a focal point of attack, set piece duty seems to be the most attractive attribute of this side, at least until Hull actually stop scoring from them.

West Ham tested Hull to the very end, Maiga and Vaz Te having decent games. One game with 36 crosses and 18 shots isn't enogh to call a West Ham revival now, but they are at least capable of intensifying their game when they are trailing. 

The Stars: Brady and the Hull defence

With Brady scoring the winner and MrGregor called upon heaps, it wasn't surprising to see both of them among the bonus points. 7 BPS were enough for the 3rd BP and with a CS, Faye barely got enough to nick the final point. (1 from pass%, 1 from CBI)

The Big Decision: West Ham Defence, Collins in particular

West Ham's fixtures are getting tougher. However, if you bought Collins at 4.5 you could probably weather the hard fixture storm past the international break and monitor how West Ham react to this defeat. Hold any WHU defenders, unless you have a 5.0 priced one (then sell).

The potential Differential: None

With West Ham having harder fixtures and Hull's home games also not the best (Sunderland might have a new manager by then and the "new manager effect" might make Sunderland a bogey fixture) I'd warn against picking up anyone from these two teams. 

Villa 3 Man City 2

Tactical Setup

Villa, 3-5-2: Tonev's ineffective performance last week meant that he was dropped for this tie, while the promising Agbonlahor couldn't recover in time for the clash, replaced by Sylla, who played behind Kozak and Weimann. Bacuna also started ahead of Lowton. Bowery on for Weimann later was like for like.


Man City, 4-2-2-2: City named an unchanged backline while resting Navas and the injured Aguero up front for Milner and Dzeko respectively. Navas on for Nasri moved Milner to the left, while Jovetic on for Dzeko was like for like too.


Top FPL Performers:

Bacuna, Weimann, El Ahmadi, Toure and Guzan 

Top FPL Underperformers:

Negredo and City's defence

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Without Agbonlahor and a few more key players, Villa treaded uncharted waters here, and there were two standout features from this game: They were poor at defending set pieces, and the lopsided-ness of their wingbacks. Luna was particularly high up, while Bacuna was relatively defensive. 

City fielded a very strong first XI and to be honest did enough to score, but defended very poorly for their standards. Quite simply, despite being strong offensively at home, their defensive unit has not been as resolute as previous years, conceding goals quite easily despite conceding shots from OK positions. 

The Stars: Bacuna, Weimann, El Ahmadi, Toure and Guzan

The theme for this game was set pieces and counterattacks, and the creators and goalscorers of these set pieces deservedly picked up bonus points. Guzan and Weimann of course delivered this game, and with possession heavy opponents up next (Spurs and Everton) you'd expecct Weimann to at least play a part in being Villa's best threat. 

Bacuna is also a decent option if he continues to take set pieces. El Ahmadi is interesting but needs consistency to warrant consideration. Toure's goal was off a corner, and while there's no real rush to drop him, you'd only pick him up if you believe this "set piece form" of his will continue. 

The Big Decision: Negredo and City's defence

Man City's defence so far has been significantly better at home than away, and sadly for the price you pay, you wouldn't have City defence for that purpose alone. Hold for now as Everton rock up next, but do look for greener pastures if you own a City defender. 

Negredo registered one shot on target all game. Another decent home option that would pay off, and the better time to pick him up would be just after GW9, when City have 3 home games in 4.

The potential Differential: None


Man United 1 West Brom 2

Tactical Setup

West Brom, 4-2-3-1: West Brom went back to their orthodox 4-2-3-1 this week, Yacob partnering Mulumbu in the double pivot while Morrison lost his place. Anichebe also came in for Anelka. Berahino's introduction for the injured Scott Sinclair was like for like, while West Brom's 2 late substitutions were to distupt the game flow. 


Man United,4-4-2: Vidic was dropped for Evans this game, while Anderson also came in for Carrick. Nani and Kagawa started on the flanks instead of Young and Valencia from last week. Hernandez started ahead of fit-again RVP, who came on later. Kagawa for Januzaj and Anderson for Fellaini were like for like.


Top FPL Performers:

Mulumbu, Amalfitano, Rooney

Top FPL Underperformers:

Man United in general

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Man United had been relying on their wide player to provide the service for their forwards, and this was one of those weeks where United's players created good chances but didn't score. United's relatively "deep block" defensive game plan involved conceding shots centrally outside the box and West Brom took advantage of it, Berahino's goal a fine example. 

West Brom, to their credit, also chose to allow their wide players to take on their respective opponents, perhaps attempting to take advantage of the fact that United's backline was a makeshift one. Amalfitano in particular was productive with 6 open play crosses (he takes corners too), 2 shots on target and 4 attempted takeons. 

The Stars: Amalfitano, Mulumbu, Rooney

No surprise here that Amalfitano and Rooney got bonuses as goalscorers, and this season Rooney's stock has been elevated somewhat, taking United's set pieces compared to RVP last season. Rooney also took some of United's corners, which significantly weakens RVP's assist threat. Mulumbu got the last BP ahead of match winner Berahino backed by his 93% pass rate. 

The Big Decision: RVP

As Sunderland are next up and still managerless, RVP is actually a scary player to have, despite having a lesser goal threat due to diminishing set piece duty. 

The potential Differential: Nani

Nani's 3 key passes from open play, as well as 8 successful take ons will definitely warrant attention at least. Good punt to have for this week. 

Southampton 2 Palace 0

Tactical Setup

Southampton, 4-2-3-1: No changes from the side that beat Liverpool last week bar Rodriguez being sacrificed for Steven Davis. Southampton's 3 substitutions shuffied the midfield a little but, Lambert Davis and Lallana being taken off for Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse and Ramirez. 


Palace, 4-3-3: Dikgacoi came back into the side at the expense of Guediora, while in defence Ward came back in for Delaney. Gayle did well enough last week to start up top instead of Puncheon, while Kebe started ahead of Cameron Jerome (CJ). CJ and Thomas came on later for Gayle and Bannan, Thomas slotting into midfield while CJ into attack. Kebe off for Phillips was like for like. 


Top FPL Performers:

Lambert, Osvaldo and Southampton Defence

Top FPL Underperformers:

No one

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Palace's error prone passing game combined with Southampton's high pressing was a recipe of two things: Hurried clearances from Palace and dispossession by Palace in dangerous positions. Truly enough, Palace's lax defending cost them the opening goal and Southampton went on cruise control from there. 

The Stars: The goalscorers and Saints Defence

The curious thing about Southampton this season so far is that 
  • Their defence has been limiting oppositioin to few shots on target, possibly due to the fact that they press high up and not many teams are good with the long ball
  • Their offence usually profits from this pressure sometimes, but in possession Southampton's attacking output has been inconsistent, and even more inconsistent in FPL terms. 
In conclusion, Southampton attack is OK to invest in, but for their price Lukaku is emerging as a decent force. Hold if you have, but don't jump in for them now, their defence provides a lot more value. Having 1 Southampton defender is a very sound move.

The Big Decision: Lambert and Osvaldo

Both scored today, but showed little underlying stats to signal consistency. For comparisons sake, Lambert is the more advanced consistently and takes more shots at goal, but Osvaldo is the more clinical of the two. Lambert also has more key passes per game, hence the larger assist threat. 

The potential Differential: No one


Swansea 1 Arsenal 2

Tactical Setup

Swansea, 4-2-3-1: Swansea rotated personnel here ahead of their Europa Cup tie. Tiendalli and Amat were brought in for Taylor and Williams while up front De Guzman started behind Michu instead of MIchu and Alvaro up front last week. Chasing the game, Pozuelo and Bony were brought on for Shelvey and Routledge.


Arsenal, 4-5-1 variant: With Walcott, Podolski and Cazorla still unfit, Wilshere and Gnabry started alongside Ozil up top. Arteta later came on for Gnabry, pushing Ramsey up to replace him while the other 2 substitutions had negligible impact. 


Top FPL Performers:

All 3 goalscorers

Top FPL Underperformers:

Ozil, Michu

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Swansea this season have had very open games at home, and this game was no different. An interesting observation to add is that Swansea are able to step up their possession game, and while the vulnerability to counterattacks are obvious, it is at least a good indicator that Swansea attackers will serve you well if they go a goal down. 

Both Arsenal goals were fitting with the flow of the game, the first an excellent move through the whole team finished by Gnabry while the second a sucker-punch from a counterattack. In FPL terms, Arsenal's attacks aren't exactly focused on a player as counters and "fluid build up" can have anyone as their finishers really, so having 3 Arsenal attackers at this point with the fixtures coming up is practical enough to pay off. 

The Stars: All 3 goalscorers 

Referring to what I said earlier, any attacker from Arsenal is pretty much worth getting (Flamini doesn't count) as long as they're nailed. Davies' goal was also well taken, so if you're convinced that Europa League wouldn't affect him too much then by all means pick him up, as Davies' fixtures after the international break cannot get any better.

The Big Decision: Ozil

Ozil is quite literally one of those players that can deliver without real underlying stats due to the sheer quality of the chances he creates or takes, and in this case he did have some chances, but didn't deliver FPL-wise. Keep him for the upcoming fixtures though, Norwich and Crystal Palace are very ideal fixtures to have him. 

The potential Differential: None


Stoke 0 Norwich 1

Tactical Setup

Stoke, 4-5-1: Stoke set up exactly the same as last week, with Ireland, Pennant and Crouch on for Adam, Walters and Kenwyne Jones like for like. 


Norwich, 4-5-1: Not much change in the Norwich setup bar Bassong out for Bennett while up front, Chris Hughton opted for solidity, having an additional central midfielder in Tettey instead of Elmander as a second striker. Protecting the lead, Norwich brought on Elmander for van Wolfswinkel while Whittaker was brought on for Pilkington, which was like for like but a defensive substitution. 


Top FPL Performers:

Goalscorer Howson and the Norwich defence

Top FPL Underperformers:

Stoke D

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Stoke haven't had much to be joyous about beyond the fact that Wilson is a BP magnet if Stoke keep a CS, and with Stoke only conceding 8 shots (in total) to Norwich, any other day Stoke would probably have kept the CS here. Offensively Stoke were also very poor, and thus will remain poor as an FPL option.

Norwich themselves would be pretty happy with their away performance this time, outshooting Stoke 5 to 1 prior to the goal and while I wouldn't say that they have "turned the corner" FPL-wise, they are at least making the effort to turn their fortunes and post Man City (GW10) Norwich might actually be worth a look again...

The Stars: Howson and the Norwich defence

Howson unsurprisingly got maximum bonus here with the winning goal, but the goal aside Howson didn't do much and should be left alone. 8 BPS only needed for subsequent bonus, and with the CS, Ruddy and Martin came out tops here as the Norwich rearguard rarely saw action. Wouldn't touch Norwich defence until post GW10.

The Big Decision: Stoke Defence and Arnautovic

Stoke's next 4 upcoming home games are pretty CS worthy and hence Stoke defence are definitely worth keeping. Those who hopped aboard the Arnautovic wagon wouldn't be pleased with his shooting stats, but at least he plays 90 minutes and for his price you wouldn't sell him in a hurry, but he really isn't worth picking up now.


The potential Differential: None.

Both attacks were bad and both defences have been spoken about

Sunderland 1 Liverpool 3

Tactical Setup

Sunderland, 4-5-1: Sunderland started a new look side without Paolo Di Canio at the helm, Cuellar coming in for Diakite while Gardner came in for Celutska. Due to Gardner moving to right back, Cattermole came into midfield alongside Ki and Larsson. With Fletcher injured and Borini dropped, Altidore led the line. 


Liverpool, 3-4-1-2: With Liverpool's experiment from last week backfiring, instead of persisting with Wisdom, Liverpool went 3 at the back, Aspas dropped at the expense of the returning Suarez. Moses, who played behind the front 2, later came off for Sterling (like for like).


Top FPL Performers:

Suarez, Sturridge, Ki, Giaccherini

Top FPL Underperformers:

Liverpool Defence

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Abandoning 4 centerbacks from last week, Liverpool tried a 3-5-2 this week and while Liverpool's lead came off a set piece, it changed the game and Liverpool's counterattacking strategy showcased its pros and cons again - Mignolet made quite a few saves to look pretty good for the cameras, while one of the saves (from outside the area) had Sunderland profit from the rebound. The long "out" ball to one of the 2 strikers, however, did allow Sturridge and Suarez to take advantage of their 1v1s against their immediate opponents, as shown in their attacking returns. 

Sunderland's decision to have 5 in the middle instead of 4 or 3 in previous weeks did make them put a lot of pressure on Liverpool's 2 midfielders as Giaccherini and Johnson all played relatively narrow to allow Colback in particular to overlap. Whether this persists we have yet to see, as Sunderland will get a new manager soon anyway.

The Stars: Sturridge, Suarez, Ki, Giaccherini

Lots have pointed out by now that Suarez had way more shots than Sturridge over 90 minutes, but prior to taking the lead, Sturridge's attacking output was exactly as good as Suarez' really. Having either is fine at the moment, there's no real rush to grab both as there are decent alternatives out there for you to hedge your bets safely. Ki and "Gia" are layoffs until the new manager shows his hand on Sunderland's play style. 

The Big Decision: Liverpool Defence

The Pool defence has been allowing shots at goal when ahead nowadays, particularly centrally from outside the box, and safe to say that Clean Sheet optimism shouldn't be at a high, and nobody would blame you for moving to a Swansea or a Chelsea defender, who have 3 home games in the next 4.

The potential Differential: None


Everton 3 Newcastle 2

Tactical Setup

Everton, 4-2-3-1: WIth McCarthy slotting in beside Barry for this game, Osman was moved further up in place of Naismith, while Lukaku got his debut, ousting Jelavic. Mirallas off for Delofeu was like for like, while the other 2 substitutions had negligible impact. 


Newcastle, 4-5-1: Remy finally earnt his keep up front, replacing Cisse while Newcastle in general were a more defensively minded 4-5-1, Tiote the extra body in central midfield while the wide players were relatively attacking. Being 3-0 down at half time, Cabaye's introduction temporarily moved Sissoko up to right wing while Gouffran played left, while Mbiwa off for Williamson for like for like. Cisse on for Anita later turned Newcastle into a 4-4-2, Cabaye staying central alongside Tiote. 


Top FPL Performers:

Lukaku, Barkley, Remy, Debuchy

Top FPL Underperformers:

Ben Arfa and Everton's defence

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

This fresh Newcastle lineup faltered pretty badly in the first half, the defence in particular making very simple errors leading up to Everton's goals. No matter how much they change things up in attack, the defence is simply either too easily beaten or too slack in their marking. Despite Newcastle having more possession in the first half, they didn't create enough with Gouffran ineffective and Ben Arfa uninvolved. 

In terms of game flow, nothing much changed really, and a Cabaye wonder goal from outside didn't change much to be honest, Newcastle taking most of their shots from outside despite being given some hope, and their goal at the end was also due to more slack defending from Everton, which says quite a bit of Everton when they take the lead. 

The Stars: All the goalscorers and Debuchy

Both Everton goalscorers had pretty decent shooting stats for their price, and should be kept for their upcoming favourable home fixtures, as well as some really juicy away ones.

As expected, Remy was better in the second half than the first, and with unfavourable fixtures next you're better off with Lukaku, who is about the same price. Debuchy, as usually had decent attacking stats (crossing, KP, CBI) when Newcastle actually bother, and with his assist he deserves every bit of his bonus. If you have him, let go after Sunderland. If not avoid until after the GW11 Internationals.

The Big Decision: Ben Arfa and Everton's defence

I shall not say much about Ben Arfa, as the jury is already out on him. Sell when possible. As for Everton's D, they do tend to slack off quite a bit while ahead, and the next few teams are on the stronger side offensively over the next few weeks, so don't expect your points to come from defensive ones. 

The potential Differential: Mirallas

Not a lot to work with for the Belgian here. Chances are that even if he gets assists in the future, with this new Everton setup he's worth holding on to if you have bigger issues, but at the moment he's a better flat track bully than anything. 

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