GW19: The Watchlist

Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW18):


Wishlist: Snodgrass, Tevez

Watchlist 1: Rooney, Gerrard, Benteke

Watchlist 2: Bale, Pienaar, Downing, Glen Johnson, Walker, Young

Pre-Gameweek 20 Transfers

Broke the rule this Gameweek. Needed Bale. Don't wanna take a hit.


So the priority of people "out" are Flops, followed by Injured, then Expecteds with Bad stats. Sounds about right.

Gameweek 19: The Verdict

In the blink of an eye I moved for Bale. Should I start punting from here on in...

GW18: The Watchlist

Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW17):

Wishlist:

Watchlist 1: Cazorla, Walker, Sessegnon, Snodgrass, Benteke

Watchlist 2: Torres, Pilkington, Tevez, Podolski, Glen Johnson, Brunt, Cisse

Pre-Gameweek 19 Transfers

Right so the priority of people "out" are Flops, followed by Injured, then Expecteds with Bad stats. Sounds about right.

GW 19 Projections

Merry Christmas people. Hope that I have been as informative as I have been entertaining. Or did I use that the wrong way round.

GW 18: The Verdict

Another Green Arrow means that I'm in the top 1 million now. I wonder what is it I'm doing right...

GW 18 Projections

I Have Juan Mata on my side. I am unstoppable.

Swansea: The Pablo effect

An astute observation was made recently, bringing about the notion that Michu garners less points with Pablo Hernandez in the side. After some digging there are stats that indicate the difference in STYLE of Swansea's play, but in this article I'll attempt to analyse Pablo's effect on Swansea as comprehensibly as possible:

GW 17: The Watchlist

Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW16):

Watchlist 1: Vertonghen, Snodgrass, Berbatov, Benteke

Watchlist 2: Torres, Gervinho

Guest Article: The Hairy Situation that is Fellaini

I have my first guest article! Many thanks to Ameenkw for writing this up, this article will be up on the Guest Column Archive and I hope that this will be the start of many :D

The Fellaini Dilemma

Fellaini was definitely the name that was mentioned the most in all FPL forums and chats this week. After a few impressive weeks (GW11, 12, 14, 15), his ownership had reached around 47%. As a consequence of his headbutt incident this week, not surprisingly, Fellaini got banned for 3 weeks. This shouldn’t be a surprise since Fellaini is the player with the most fouls committed in EPL this season, and this act is predictable from him.

However, we are not here to discuss his behavior. What we care about as FPL managers is the fact that Fellaini will be out for 3 weeks. This is a long-term suspension, and removing Fellaini is the obvious solution. The real question is who do we get to replace him? This article will discuss the different alternatives, by looking across the different ranges of players.

GW17: The Verdict

Rafael came in this week because, well, he's an attacking defender. I wanted my stats to make more sense because I'm projecting 6 points for clean sheets and I don't know why. But FPL works that way and it rewards SOME degree of randomness, so I might sort that out in the future. ONWARD

Pre-Gameweek 18 Transfers

Another Green Arrow! A bittersweet feeling though. The "bad decision" to drop Cazorla instead of Silva last week was a lost opportunity. But we learn.

Guest Column (Archive)

This will be a shell post at the moment, and articles will be added to this post/page as soon as they are done... I'm attempting to get people to "guest write" for this column because I think that things that I write are not very relatable and enjoyable :-(

So with the light-hearted stuff being in this page, hopefully people will find this page insightful, entertaining and useful 2/3 seasons into the future when we're busy discussing about Bib Theory and how Reading are crap...


19/12/12, Ameenkw, Pre-GW18, The Fellaini Dilemma
12/1/13, VanTheMan, Pre-GW20. The Double Gameweek Scenario

GW1 Projections

GW1 projections are usually more intuitive than anything, especially since we have virtually 0 data on new players. So, with intuitive choices come intuitive projections. PLFantasy has 10GW forecasts up, but nothing on CS or attacking rankings (obviously) so perhaps I'll just

GW2 Projections

5 transfers don't seem sobad, especially when I'm moving for so many huge players..

GW3 Projections

5 transfers don't seem sobad, especially when I'm moving for so many huge players..

GW4 Projections

7 transfers that failed miserably. Think this was the move to accommodate RVP...

GW5 Projections

Ah this. I remember this week. The week that ruined my 12/13 season forever...

GW6 Projections

Just Clean Sheet and Attacking Rankings, but this'll be enough for "hyper-inflated intuitive" projections lol.

Oh and special mention of a GW 6 Wildcard, so this projected score should be HIGH.

GW7 Projections

GW 7 has a primitive version of the captain rankings. Nice. There are also Clean Sheet rankings in this one wow.

GW 8 Projections

More intuitive analysis and projections!!!

GW 9 Projections

Things get trickier and tricker. Only team OFFENSIVE stats in this one, so without individual player data I have even less to work with. Will probably "intuitive" projections on this.

GW 10 Projections

And this is where the digging starts. Once again, these are just projections. They do not necessarily have to be accurate, but if they are not, at least I can get a clue from how far off projections can be, as  well as how "accurate" projections can be at the start of the season (since I'm working backwards). I'll spend as little time as possible for Gameweeks 1 to 10 and the Verdict will probably be more important, but they're all linked to each other one way or another. So here we go.

Gameweek 17 Projections

Something to write today. Yay.

GW16: The Watchlist

New piece! Seems like I am bringing on too much, but I at least would like to try. The purpose of the Watchlist is to pinpoint "outstanding performers" from each game individually, and then put them on the "Watchlist" literally. Hopefully this will also provide me consistent signals on who to bring in. This will definitely be added to the "Big Picture" later.

GW16: The Verdict

3 hits this week. Michu, Fellaini and Defoe came in with a combined prise rise of 0.8 while Bale, Cazorla and Long all went out as injury concerns/failed buys. Theoretically, I should have sold Silva instead of Cazorla. I admit that I have made a grave mistake potentially, but here are the stats to verify that I did:

Pre Gameweek 17 Transfers

One green arrow. Thank the FPL heavens. This Gameweek however I"m making my free transfer before my verdict, hopefully it won't be too much of a risk.

GW13 The Verdict

The reason I'm doing all these Verdicts is that as part of the Big Picture, I'll be documenting who I should have been dropping/monitoring and such, as well as come up with (hopefully) decisions, which was the whole point of this anyway lol... GW13 Time.

GW14: The Verdict

The reason I'm doing all these Verdicts is that as part of the Big Picture, I'll be documenting who I should have been dropping/monitoring and such, as well as come up with (hopefully) decisions, which was the whole point of this anyway lol... Right, onto GW14.

GW15: The Verdict

December's version of the verdict is up and running! I'm quite happy with the current format as it combines underlying stats with meaningful actions on my current players. Everything after the page break I will repeat in terms of format so that I don't have to refer to any other posts, besides the analysis mechanisms are not that complex anyway. So here is the drill...

GW16 Projections

Projection of  Gameweek 16 points. Deep breath.

GW13 Projections

Projection of  Gameweek 15 points.

GW14 Projections

Projection of  Gameweek 14 points.

GW 15 Projections

Projection of  Gameweek 15 points.

Pre Gameweek 16 Transfers

Everything went wrong. EVERYTHING. From Bale and Silva's injury to Cazorla not scoring to mid price gems Michu and Fellaini firing to Suarez's suspension. I give.

Pre Gameweek 15 Transfers

Moving for Gibbs this Gameweek.

Pre Gameweek 14 Transfers

Step 2 of the "Budget Elite Defense" is in effect. The goal is to obtain a defense consisting of "Elite defenses" as cheap as possible minimum 4 out of 5 defenders by Christmas. Enrique is in so far, next targets are Gibbs and Johnny Evans, then Nastasic or Azpilicueta. But first, need cash.

Pre Gameweek 13 Transfers

This move may have been the turning point of my season. Nevertheless, since I am writing this after it has happened, I will recollect as much as I can. Also going to change the format a bit, wanna get rid of some useless stats.

Resource Update

This post/page will be constantly updated based on new resources found on the web. Anyone that comes across interesting articles regarding new tactical findings can comment and will be added if they are relevant.

Any obsolete articles will be removed immediately, or at least archived somewhere :)