I need to ramble a bit. Figured that this is the best avenue for it while keeping a record of anecdotes.
I needed to question my fundamentals to figure out the point of it all. The topic floated about my head when the fixture list popped up for the 13/14 Premier League, prompting a huge debate (with myself) on data collection, whether for present or past. What pushed me over the edge was the fact that I was attempting to gather FPL points from the past season, which was a ridiculous amount of effort.
On a personal level, I'd like to do things that people don't provide almost for the sake of it, and lately it's becoming a habit. My initial efforts are usually efficient, but as time goes by and I'm adding on top of what I'm doing, I tend to become lazy and I procrastinate and the quality of my work almost plateaus.
But I question myself again: What is the point of coming up with data that cannot be found anywhere else? What is the point of coming up with EPL 13/14 rotations, or assists and goals for the past season?
The answer, after some thought, was quite simple: To justify arguments. I want to say that Leighton Baines had the potential to be good as an offensive and a defensive asset for his price, but I have no evidence. All we "have" are memories from our past season (and maybe some data from the FFS Members and Whoscored) which significantly helps nowadays for argument's sake.
Now, it's time to question why I want to save past FPL data. Does it help me? No. So what does help my knowledge in FPL that I can use in the future?
Rotations are good. Why do I come up with rotations?
Ah, now I get it. Strategies on maximising point potential lately has been really murkifying my thoughts, and this ties with MY strategy: I want to use rotations to maximise my points. But not just in the sense that "5 defs so and so will give you the most points over 19 weeks". I want an ADAPTIVE rotation that can accomodate having form defenses while rotating everyone else.
The strategy now becomes slightly clearer. I have heard many types of strategies (especially on FFS) but I had better list mine here before I forget, again:
1. For GKs, grab Cech and a keeper good for the next 2-3 games (Boruc probably). Send Cech out when a form keeper is found while using the 2nd keeper to cover Cech's bad fixtures (GW2 to united, GW3's blank, GW4's everton trip and GW6's trip to Spurs. Think I might have to let go Cech post GW1)
2. For defs, I'm going completely rotation based as I see none of the elite defenses worth investing in at the moment, due to rotation (City, Arsenal due to Champs league, Spurs because of NO Champions League, Everton because of a new manager), or unfavourable fixtures and no evidence in form (United, Chelsea).
Hence, in defense I'm planning an all-out cheapie assault as I load my money on the heavy hitters up front, depending on pre-season form coupled with potentially cheap new signings.
With the strategy set, the last question remains: While rotations help, does gathering data from past seasons help?
The answer is no. The only "real" data that will help me will be the ones that will record my mistakes. Where I lost out on opportunities to hit huge points, and where I lost points by making unnecessary transfers. So what I will be compiling instead will be my mistakes according to trends of EPL 12/13.
Glad I got that sorted out. Time to start the real work then.
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