FPL 12/13, The Hindsight Approach - Part 1

While I was contented to make a summary of what happened to MY season, I found that it was also as important to note things that have happened to other teams in general which contributes to FPL. So before that season's data gets wiped, I'll try and sum up everything that happened in that season so that I at least have notes to refer to for next season.

This data will be useful to the people that (A) Believe that certain things will carry over from season to season and (B) don't mind using hindsight as a decent indicator/lesson to use for the coming season.


Early Season (GW1 - GW7)

• Chelsea/Arsenal - Hot Start

Chelsea pick up a DGW due to the Super Cup. Arsenal pick up 3CSs in a row, including a 2-0 against Liverpool through counterattacks, but lose it completely after their hard run against Man City and Chelsea. Chelsea stay strong offensively, due to new signings Hazard, who rocketed from 9.5 to 10.2 by GW4 while keeping 4 CS out of 5 against relatively weak teams offensively (wig, NEW, qpr, STK). They make the occasional error though (4-2 Reading, 4-1 Norwich). Mata took over goalscoring mantle from Hazard GW5 (1-0 Stoke). Nothing else interesting for either beyond Chelsea's GW3 blank. Conclusion: Spot trends and run with them, and be sensitive to them when they start to drop.

Edit: Chelsea's Hazard to Mata trend changed due to Hazard shift to the wing. Courtesy of Football-lineups.com

• United/City - Hot Hands

United open with a loss but van Persie catches fire after that. Exposed heaps defensively though, conceding against Fulham Southampton, Liverpool and Spurs. Defence too erratic (injuries), but offensively hot hand applies. City score like mad but don't perform resolutely enough to keep CSs. Not sure why. Tevez with the hot hand. Grab the hot hand striker once you have identified them from these teams. 

• The Promoted - Reading, Southampton and West Ham

Southampton under Nigel Adkins showed heaps of attacking endeavour, but failed to materialise them into wins. Super hard schedule though, not helped by rotating keepers from Davis to Boruc and Guzzaniga. Ricky Lambert shines throughout. Reading have 2 blanks (GW2,3) due to DGW against Chelsea in GW1, and bad UK weather against Sunderland postponing their game. No one in Reading team showing form at all. West Ham open to 3 CS in 4 against relatively weak bottom half teams. Had a good run of fixtures to start with, so lots picked up on WHU defense, especially O'Brien, Demel and Jaaskelainen. WHU's away form was bad though. At home, West Ham scoring lots too, Kevin Nolan hogging the spotlight. Conclusion: Jump on any CS trends you see. Watch for home form, or just form in general.

• European Chasers - Everton, Spurs, Liverpool

Everton start well offensively, only scoring 1 goal or less in 2 of the first 7 fixtures. CSs hard to come by though. Fellaini becomes hit or miss, but mostly hit for the start of the season. Leighton Baines was the star man though, being either useful offensively or defensively. As a result, Pienaar, Baines' partner in crime, also profited. Watch for Everton partnerships. Spurs start slow, but Defoe starts hot, basically from shot spamming. Bale showed similar form to Fellaini, being hit or miss, but picked up form GW4. Good time to pick up Bale when Spurs start winning. Liverpool underperform (albeit with a shit schedule) but Suarez stays relatively consistent, and rewards owners with a hattrick GW6 against Norwich. Liverpool will be a different beast when Suarez is back.

• The relegation survivors - QPR, Villa, Wigan

QPR never improved from the previous season. About 576328 signings and as a result, no one showed consistency at the back or front beyond Zamora. Villa hire Paul Lambert and field a completely young backline GW1 (Baker, Clark, Lowton, Vlaar) and stick with them for most of the season. Benteke is only included in Villa squad pre-GW4 but doesn't do much early season. Villa's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses in first 7 without anyone really firing. Wigan started with a shit schedule. 1 win in the first 7 too. But not gonna say too much about them either. Conclusion: Don't expect much from relegation survivors, especially if they have bad fixtures. 

• The overperformers - Swansea, Fulham, Newcastle

Newcastle pick up where they left off really, but it's the early season form of Ba that carries them again. Ben Arfa shines too. Cisse annonymous, price drops from 9.5 to 9.0 in 7 weeks. Newcastle score well but don't do enough to keep a win. Not that it matters anyway. As for Swans, well, Michu happened. Beyond the first 3 games however, they hit a slump. The key event: Neil Taylor's injury against Sunderland in the 2-2 draw. Something to consider. Michu's score read 18, 10, 7, 1, 1, 2. Recovered slightly after that though, especially Michu. Need to find out why. Fulham's games were really, really high scoring. The home/away contrast pattern applied here though, Fulham were winning the winnable games at home but inconsistent away. Conclusion: Be sensitive to trends. Watch H/A, and watch for hot hands. 

• The rest - Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke, West Brom

Sunderland had a GW2 blank due to torrential rain. No patterns on the CS and offensive front bar Steven Fletcher. Norwich also had a slow start. Weren't worth looking at. Stoke had a decent start despite their ridiculous hard schedule, including CS against Arsenal, Swansea and Liverpool, but offensively nothing consistent bar Crouch and Walters, who were relatively consistent performers regardless of home or away. West Brom also showed Home/Away contrasts offensively and defensively for the first 7 anyway, but only maintained home offensive trend beyond GW7. In conclusion, watch for hot hand/H/A for midtable teams as well.

• General Conclusions

1. Based on last season's data, it seemed that hot hands were the way to go. There were obviously some GW1 hot hands that faded around GW3, and it really is up to us to be sensitive to these changes in order to get a good start. 
2. H/A rotation also really pays off, especially if you can find the key rotation that pays off offensively. 
3. For promoted teams, watch for established hot hands (Lambert was on fire in the Chmapionship the season before iirc) but yea stay away as long as you can unless you are on a shoestring budget.
4. For elite position chasing teams, you'll have to dig a bit deeper into the stats and look at partnerships, players associated with hot hands etc. Chances are that your "value" players would probably come from these teams, so be ready to invest when you know that Spurs, Everton or Liverpool are on the up. 
5. For elite teams, the hot hands principle also applies, but with the dynamics of managers changing this season I really don't know how things will turn out. 

Part 2 will be out asap.