With Rate My Teams all over the place, I'd figure I'd add fuel to the fire here by firstly selecting some criterion to stick to and then going through some rotations that I've looked through. Sorry for not finishing the last series.
Firstly, I'll open with the review of the teams so far and then I'll start going through what people are considering at the moment. I'll be using the terms "value", "Premium" and "Budget" quite consistently in the following, and I'd just like to highlight that "value" refers to players that a priced such that they produce similar returns to those above them. For example, if Jovetic does as well as Rooney/Suarez in attack, he's value. If he produces returns in the RVP level, he's MASSIVELY value. Premium and budget are self explanatory, but just in case, I refer premium as high price/expected high returns while budget refers to cheap/expected low returns.
With the premium teams,
- United haven't strengthened, making RVP the only goalscoring option up front so far. Rooney at 10.5 is more affordable but still not super viable unless he moves to Chelsea. United's midfield and defense remains priced at a premium which is fair, although whoever that starts between Evans and Ferdinand might be a decent option later in the season.
- City strengthened up front and their striker combo is now premium - 2x low premium - mid price. Personally with Pellegrini at the helm I see this as a real opportunity to get ahead of competition this season. All 4 forwards here are affordable and have scarily good stats for the price you pay, so the moment you see a hot hand you bloody jump on it.
- Chelsea have turned from a FPL dream into a nightmare for GW1. With new players, new info from Mourinho, an international friendly right before GW1 and a DGW thrown into the mix, pretty much everyone is in doubt bar Hazard and Cech. Price wise most players are fairly priced, premiums are premiums and the real value you'd get are from the low end premium players that can potentially produce elite stats. Lukaku, Terry, Ba, Schurrle and Lamps come to mind.
- Arsenal. Umm. With no one new in, I find it strange that the entire Arsenal backline is only 5.5. Most will have an Arsenal player GW1 or 2 probably. Their relatively easy run stretches until GW10 and by then an Arsenal striker would hit form anyway that is worth keeping. Otherwise, the rest of the players are fairly priced too, unless Giroud also improves (he does have a habit of improving in his second season, such as at Montpellier).
- Spurs have a backline more expensive than Arsenal, although slightly unbalanced. Teams that depend on 1 player have the tendency to leave the rest of the players undervalued, and hence the value in this squad here will come from either Spurs' secondary defense (Dawson, BAE) or attackers (Dempsey, Sigurdsson). Risky at the moment though with not many knowing how Paulinho/Chadli fits in the picture. More question marks due to the Bale saga too.
- Liverpool also are a team that have bought, and like most teams that have massively bought players, POTENTIAL value players have surfaced. I highlight this because the stars have aligned for Liverpool investment due to (A) First choice players out and (B) good fixtures but due to the depth that Liverpool now have, safe picks are the high end premium players that played last season while the new signings have been priced in the mid-range. Watch Aspas, watch Alberto, watch Toure. Potential value in all 3.
In the mid-table market,
- Everton have been fairly priced, with most of the midfield and forwards in the midprice range. Fellaini at 8.5 now is not very popular anymore especially with Martinez at the helm, and with some Wigan players brought over already, Everton looks like a "wait and see" team for now. Value is all over the squad, and all it takes is a player to provide above average stats to trigger investment.
- West Brom have been surprisingly cheaply priced, but justified I guess. The prices are quite consistent with last season's returns, but with WBA strengthening up front it's hard to tell at the moment who will be up front. Value is more present in midfield, with James Morrison a very, very strong rotational option. Will talk more on that later.
- Swansea have bought some depth to handle the Europa League. Thankfully their fixtures are horrendous the first 6, so you'd only grab a player that's likely to catch fire (Michu) who is in the premium range already. Wilfried Bony is intriguing though. For 8.0 it seems that FPL rates him quite highly, which shows that they have been doing their homework, and so with bracketing him alongside the likes of Berbatov and Lambert, you'd apply the same rules: pick up only when in form.
- West Ham's significant (deserved) inflations leaves a lot of us to either bite the bullet with Nolan or look to alternatives such as Jarvis, Vaz Te and Cole. West Ham aren't 5th midfielder material anymore clearly, and with the significant loss in value players, fortunately invest in West Ham for the first 6 weeks or so allows you to play them every game, so you decide on who you'd want out there. Defensively West Ham have been 5.0 priced (just like Swansea and WBA btw) and if you were running a WHU defender you'd probably play him every week too, which isn't bad for a 5.0 investment really (assuming last season's goalscoring potential
In the budget market for relegation survivors,
- Norwich's backline is almost a must here. Fixtures are scarily good. Up front though questions will be asked about the 2 new strikers, who are both reasonably priced, but neither represent obvious value at the moment. AT THE MOMENT. The midfield has had some additions, but without a proper game in the EPL season it'll be hard to tell how different Norwich are.
- Fulham are a strange team to be honest. FPL wise the bulk of their points come from Berbatov, and with the only significant addition so far being Amorebiata (who you'll have to monitor due to competition in Hughes and Senderos) , that probably represents your best chance of securing a value player. The backline has been inflated due to their attacking returns last season, and in midfield the midfielders haven't had a significant change while the wingers are good 4th midfielder material for a differential, but none guaranteed to start.
- Stoke have added 2 defenders and Mark Hughes, which puts question marks on an already inflated Stoke backline. If you depend on Pulis stats, ALL Stoke defenders are value as when they go on a run of defensive form, they stick to it. Just a matter of how much goal threat you want. Up front the Walters/Crouch combo always gives you SOME returns, it's just a matter of how you rotate them (if they follow H/A form at all) and whether they do as well as last season.
- Southampton are the ones that have been popular. Just like Liverpool, the fixtures have aligned nicely for the opening 6 weeks at least, the backline is 4.5 on average with virtually no competition, and up front the forwards aren't overpriced, even in the GK department. I can see many picking up Boruc and a defender, and it comes down to preference when picking an attacker. Lambert at 7.5 and Jay Rodriguez at 6.0, with Ramirez at 6.0 are all affordable rotation options. Choose your weapon.
- Aston Villa are the dark horses of the mid table sides. Fortunately terrible fixtures at the start (despite a DGW in GW1) allows you to identify value in guaranteed starters (Benteke @ 9.0) or rotational options (Agbon @ 7.0, Weimann and Helenius @ 7.0 and 5.5 respectively). Tonev in midfield is the most attractive attacking option, but as I have mentioned earlier, put a hold on investment until after their blank in GW3.
- Newcastle United's defense has finally become affordable, but few (that I've spoken to) have decided to take the plunge. Mbiwa is an established defender that is definitely value for a budget player (4.5) if you trust pedigree, but you'd be relying on cleansheets (probably after GW2, where Newcastle have a good 6 weeks of good games). Up front Ben Arfa and Cisse are still the go-to guys with no additions yet, but once again, playing any Newcastle attackers at the moment is risky.
- Sunderland has bought three quarters of a squad by bringing in a keeper, 2 defenders, 2 midfielders and a million attackers that throws the whole team into question. While most of the backline is reasonably priced, if you're intending to start with Sunderland players Mannone and O'Shea are probably your best bets at the moment. Sunderland unfortunately have one of the worst opening fixtures: Their home games (bar Fulham) are hard and yet their away games are somewhat playable. In this case I'd usually recommend attackers to rotate, and hence value here will be in Cabral (who has shown decent form) and Larsson (potential set piece taker) as well as Jozy Altidore (7.0), who you will be reluctant to bench but coupled with a cheap midfielder could serve you well.
From the promoted sides,
- Cardiff have everyone at either 5.5 or lower, which is value for rotational purposes. The relatively established players such as Bellamy, Kim-Bo-Young and Cornelius will be pressed for minutes, but I'll have to rely on the community here to get more data on them. The aforementioned names are based on what I've heard so far. Defensively Cardiff have some 4.0s in there but personally I'm not sure how "nailed on" they are, so invest at your own risk. Kevin McNaughton started most of Cardiff's games at RB, while left-back Andrew Taylor and CB pairing Connoly/Hudson are all priced at 4.5. Ben Turner, who started most of Cardiff's games at CB when Hudson was injured is 4.0, but might not start as Hudson is club captain.
- Hull also are between 5.5 and 4.0, but the key here is that their chief set piece taker, Robert Koren is 5.0 while Robbie Brady's 4 goal and 13 assists last season got him a 5.0 price tag too. Ex Sunderland fullback Elmohamady is in the mix as a 5.0 too, having nabbed 3 goals and 9 assists in the Championship. Up top Danny Graham also is 5.5, while everyone else in the squad is pretty much bench fodder at this point. In terms of value picks, James Chester, who started 44 games for Hull last season is @ 4.0, which is rare enough in FPL. The only other players coming close to those appearances were Stephen Quinn, Jay Simpson, Robert Koren and Elmohamady. If you're looking for bargains, your best chances are Simpson or Sone Aluko who nabbed 8 goals and 4 assists himself, while in midfield Koren is the best prospect followed by David Meyler with 5 goals and 3 assists. Assist king Brady also has a notable 13 assists.
- Crystal Palace have a lot of stability in terms of appearances. Centerbacks Delaney and Ramage are 4.5 and 4.0 respectively, while Parr, who at left back got 4 assists apparently is the club's first choice left back (Moxey only started when Parr picked up an injury). Parr and Moxey have also both featured with Parr playing RB, which is a plus to his game time. Joel Ward (4.0) is the first choice right back with Blake and the loaned Ashley Richards filled in last season for a bit. Up front the front 4 of Murray, Zaha, Garvan and Bolasie got 46 goals between them, where Murray alone scored 30 himself. Not a lot of goal potential for the others. Assists wise the aforementioned front 4 all nabbed 6-10 assists, which shows that while it is unlikely that you'll find a Charlie Adam here, if you get attacking Palace players, you'd grab Gayle (Murray's temporary replacement) if you wanted a finisher, and Bolasie/Garvan (both 5.0) when you can. Watch for Campana, Thomas and Wilbraham's minutes though.
I'm fine with Part 1 like this for now, next post that involves rotations and fixtures should have its groundwork start tonight.
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