FPL Preseason Preparation Part 2: Fixtures

With part 1 out of the way, I'll focus on squad composition as late as possible (I'll have the post ready, but it'll be subject to transfers from Bale etc.) but firstly there are things that don't change, such as fixtures. The aim of this part of the preparation is building from Part 1 itself: Based on prices I'll have some recommendations to make, and based on fixtures I'll recommend "pairs" or "trios" to have in your squad for the first 19 weeks (where you can use your winter wildcard to change things up later).

While FFS has started suggesting pairs of defences that rotate well home and away, I feel the need to go beyond the obvious: I have created a spreadsheet and I have been at work with it for a while, link here. However, in this post I'll attempt to create an organised matrix of some sort to filter the wheat from the chaff, and hopefully add some meaning and insight to your preseason banter/planning before anything else happens.



If you have read part 1, you would have noticed that I have pinpointed certain players as "value" from each team if possible. What I'm gonna attempt to do here is

1. Translate this value into their respective fixture difficulties. What I mean here is that 
• If a player is premium priced but his value is worthy of is price tag, he'll be in your starting XI every week.
• Similarly, if a player is in the budget price bracket and is "value" at the same time, chances are you're likely to field him for favourable games, such as most home games or games against promoted sides. Second strikers for midtable teams come to mind here, but you're very welcome to play them every game anyway if they hit form. The key here is that with a good rotation scheme, you wouldn't mind them coming off the bench for you either, which enables you to play a "punt" up front anyway.
• If a player is in the mid price bracket and is considered "value" you could potentially play him every week. However, to maximise a mid-price player's potential, you'd at least examine the first 6-7 fixtures so that you won't be worried about them not scoring in one game and facing a tough one the next.
2. Make general recommendations based on these value players. Now I'm aware that I might be treading on thin ice, but the recommendation I'm making here is team based rather than player based, unless there are specific reasons for getting a player. There will be several types of recommendations I'll be making:
• I'll start with the easy stuff: Permanent recommendations. A twist here is that since the future will be hard to predict, I'll also recommend "outs" when a particular player has run out of good fixtures (for mid price value players). For example, since West Ham has one of the best opening fixtures, Kevin Nolan is a very attractive option for the first 7 weeks or so. However, they turn to banana fudge sundae after GW6 so I'll recommend who you can transition into after that for a similar price. 
• The next part of recommendations will be rotation options. For those who don't know, rotation refers to having a pair of players that play in tandem for their favourable fixtures, usually having them for most of the 19 weeks involved. While suggesting a pair of players to "own" for 19 weeks sounds like a one-stop solution, there will be cases where a defence just doesn't catch fire (having high goals conceded per shots on target etc.) and the plan here is that I will go through EVERY SINGLE ROTATION (pairs) and suggest pairs you can transition INTO and identify points where you can use this transition (as well as prices etc. of course). Imagine tables. Best I can give you right now. One last note is that I'll be working on just pairs for the moment, trios I'll add on when I have the time. My goodness schedules are tight.

Andddd off we go.

Starting with defense (which applies to both GK and defense) I'll go with the easy stuff and touch on "permanent" playing players first. Firstly, I'd like to point out that in the first 19 weeks, a player plays against every side once exactly, hence the impossible situation of having a good fixture all the time. What I'd highlight here is the "period" where these players are viable. After I go through the examples hopefully my point will carry across better.

• Among the elite sides, Arsenal and Liverpool have only 1 difficult fixture out of the first 9/10. After that you could bite the bullet by playing Arsenal defs through the Liverpool and United game on GW10 & 11, keeping them until GW15 or so. For Liverpool, best time to exit is GW16 as well if you're not too fussed about Arsenal on GW10 and away to Everton on GW13. So yea, in conclusion, it's not a bad thing to start with Liv/Ars defense, and if you intend to pick them up, both are good post GW3 (first international break).
• Man City's case is a bit tricky. City's defenders have a beauiful run of fixtures to start with (first 3), but as the Champions League games kick in, rotation will be a factor for owning a City player, as City unfortunately have an easy game PRIOR to Champions League games and difficult games AFTER them. GW4's UCL game reads (sto, UCL, MUN) so the "best" time to rest City players is during the Stoke away game. GW6's UCL sequence would be (avl, UCL, EVE) and then GW8's UCL fixtures are (whu, UCL, che). So my point here with City is to be wary of their players, and pick up City players only if they get a relatively easy Champions League group. 
• Spurs are a mixed bag. With Europa League gamesin the mix, the bright side is that for the first 5 (cpl, SWA, ars, NOR, car) you'd semi expect the B team to play the first Europa game between Norwich and Cardiff. In fact, bar the Europa League game between CHE (GW6) and WHU (GW7), you'd expect the first teamers to play most of the league games, so having a Spurs def in the first 10-11 weeks is a pretty viable idea. The last 9-10 games have away games combined with difficult fixtures, so depending on how well Spurs do you might wanna let them go for an in form 4.0 defender who usually emerges around that time of the season to free up some cash. 
• With Everton, the first 11 Gameweeks are playable given that there are no European commitments, just don't hope for too much as (A) Roberto Martinez is not renowned for shutting teams out and (B) 2 of the 5 home games are against top 6 sides (CHE, TOT). Perhaps it would be better to get your money's worth by investing in Baines, but to do that you'd need evidence of significant offensive threat to invest in Everton defenders while expecting something in return. Nevertheless, this makes Everton a "pick up any time" between GWs1 and 11, and as long as you jump ship before that third international break you'll do fine...
• While United's start isn't good, post City (GW5) game (or even just the first international break if you're adventurous) their fixtures are mostly playable, assuming they're not affected by Champions League rotation. The reason I wouldn't be AS worried as City/Chelsea with rotation to United defense is that traditionally United have a squad specifically for Europe. Will back that up with stats later if possible. A possible "bogey run" would be between GW11 and 14 where United play 3 away games in 4 combined with a UCL game, so defensively that might be your "cue" to either let go or get on (after that run of course). 
• Last but not least, Chelsea. There's a big question mark hanging over Chelsea players' heads as to whether they'll be worth keeping post GW1, and to be honest, the answer is NO. Beyond GW3, 3 away games in 4 await while Champions League games will be also a factor, hence it's hit and run for Chelsea defence players here really, and the best pick up time (again) would be GW8 or 11, depending on whether Chelsea have qualified for the knockout stages. With the 4th Champions League game just before the Newcastle away game the best time to pick up Chelsea defense would be for the WBA home game, keeping until December. 

Now with all that worked out, the last thing to figure out are "transitions". Gonna split the periods via their international breaks, and to go alongside it I'll include "entry" or "exit" points so that in the future you'd know when is the best time to let go of a particular defender. 

Teams	1-3	4-7	8-11	12-19
Arsenal	Good to start with	Pick up and hold	Exit 10 or earlier	Enter before 12-13 and hold
Liverpool	Good to start with	Pick up and hold	Pick up and hold	Exit 16 or earlier
Tottenham	Good to start with	Pick up and hold	Exit 11 or earlier	Sell/Don’t buy
City	Good to start with	Pick up and hold but beware	Pick up if City have qualified for UCL KOs	Pick up at your own risk
United	Avoid	Pick up and hold	Pick up and hold	Best pickup after GW13
Everton	Good to start with	Pick up and hold	Exit 11 or earlier	Pick up after GW15
Chelsea	Start with and let go immediately	Avoid	Avoid	Pick up any time

So with this table in mind, let's work out an example of a "transition" you can do: Say you start with an Arsenal defender. Since Arsenal's fixtures turn slightly sour GW10 onwards, you can either (A) Exit around 8-9 for a Liverpool defender, (B) Maximise the returns, and transition to United or (C) Hold out until the fixtures turn up on GW13. Might sound obvious with a bit of research, but at least when your "exit point" for your defender approaches you can make a conscious decision on whether to keep or drop.

For attackers, I'd go with the form argument rather than fixtures, because the players you'd pick up (offensively) from these teams usually would have enourmous attacking potential already, so basic advice which I'd give here is to monitor their Points-Per-Game (or whatever stats you use to make sure they're firing) and dro pif necessary. The stats I have just laid out actually provide margins of error in order to aid your decision (hopefully).

Now that I've run through all the elite/premium players, I'll flick through the mid-table sides. I have created a spreadsheet that puts together the cross fixtures of all the mid table sides, including CARDIFF due to popular demand, and the table below summarises who are the respective mid table sides' best partners and when...

Team	Best Combo (19 Wks)	Best First 10/11	Best last 10/11	Most Home
NOR	FUL or SOU	FUL, SOU	STO, SUN,WHU, SWA,CAR	STO, WBA, HUL
STO	AVL or FUL	SOU	NOR, AVL	NOR, NEW, WHU
WHU	WBA, FUL, NEW`	SOU, FUL	NOR, AVL, NEW, WBA, FUL	SOU, FUL
SOU	WBA	WBA, SUN, STO, NOR, NEW	WBA, AVL	NOR, WHU,NEW,
SUN	CAR or FUL	SOU, FUL, HUL	AVL, NOR, HUL	NEW(duh), HUL
NEW	WHU,SOU or CAR	SOU, WHU, FUL	SWA, AVL, WHU, CAR, HUL	SOU, FUL, HUL
AVL	SOU, SWA	SOU	All the mid table sides, but SWA and CAR stand out	STO, WBA
WBA	SOU by a country mile	SOU, HUL	STO, NOR, AVL, CAR, CRY	SOU, NOR, AVL,HUL
FUL	NOR or SWA or CRY	NOR, SUN, NEW	SWA, STO, AVL, WHU	NOR, NEW
SWA	WHU or FUL	WHU, SOU, FUL, HUL	NOR, STO, WHU, SUN, NEW, AVL, FUL, CRY	NEW, HUL
CAR	SUN,CRY	HUL, CRY	AVL, FUL, NEW, SUN, STO, NOR, CRY	Most are 11/19 Home

Alright I'll have to settle with this table for now, sorry if it hurts your eyes a bit to breach the side borders a bit. Now as with most data analysis, I would like to list and justify the following possible discrepancies:

1. The fixture ratings in the spreadsheet were through my judgement alone. Games were judged with 3 colors: Blue (preferable and defintiely playable, if you're not agreeing to this I can't say much), Red (Definitely UNPLAYABLE, but I only highlight them if a pair of players BOTH have bad fixtures), and Orange (Debatable, and this is where I leave it to your judgement as to whether you "don't mind" playing your particular defender through the particular fixture. Usually this involves an away side to an attacking mid table side (like Southampton an d Fulham etc.) or a home game against a top 6 side. Happens quite a lot, so pick your poison really). 
2. "Best" was judged based on the number of reds and oranges, with priority in avoiding red ones as much as possible. Note that I made the whole spreadsheet in pretty much one shot, so do point any mistakes I have made in the comments, either in the blog post or in the spreadsheet and I will justify/correct them. 

So with that out of the way, if you're still confused, I'll give you a quick example to illustrate how to use this spreadsheet:

Say you want to start with a Norwich defender but you're not sure about who to rotate him with after his run of easy fixtures. Using the table, you can start by pairing him with Southampton defense or Fulham defense, and if Fulham defense turns sour, you can sell the Fulham defender and pick up one of the defenders listed in the next column: Stoke, Sunderland, West Ham, Swansea or Cardiff depending on your budget/preference/circumstance.

So yea I've covered 2 way rotation using the method above. I'm not really keen on covering 3 way rotation due to the sheer number of combinations coupled with my increasingly busy work schedule, but I'll slap it down intuitively when I have the time. In the mean time, I suggest using the "orthodox" strategy:

Introducing the 1 Permanent + 2 Pairs Strategy

This involves having a permanently playing defender (usually quite expensive) and 2 pairs of relatively cheaper defenders that you play based on who has the easier fixture. Here is an example:

Liverpool + NOR/SOU + WHU/NEW

with the Liverpool defender playing every week (until GW16 or so) and NOR rotating with SOU while WHU rotates with NEW. And there you go. Try to mix and match to figure out what you'd like based on your budget. And try not to use Hull and Palace too much.

Part 3 will be on Individual Teams. This will be released closer to GW1 as I'll need news and updates on every team, including pre-season stats and manager quotes. Have fun in the meanwhile, and don't stress too much over the team until Bale news is final.