FPL GW2 Post Match Mortem

Hello,

Projections and results have been slow, I"m writing regularly for another site at the moment so I'll just chuck the rest here too for easy reading. During the international break however, I do intend to make something out of this (such as update the Trends and Myths etc. for once) so basically this is what I've been up to at the moment..

Fulham 1 Arsenal 3

Tactical Setup

Arsenal mirrored last week's 4-2-3-1, but instead of Wilshere/Ramsey deep and Rosicky ahead, the trio of Caz/Rosicky/Ramsey took relatively similar positions, all 3 attempting shots and key passes whenever forward. Podolski in for the injured Oxlade-Chamberlain as well on the left. Sagna played emergency center-back with Koscielny suspended while Jenks played right-back. Sanogo took up his expected center forward position while Monreal for Podolski also was a straight swap.

Last week's 4-4-1-1 remained the same with Parker in for Boateng. Fulham's substitutions were more interesting as they were chasing the game, turning into a lopsided 4-4-2 with Kacaniklic, Riether and Kasami all taking up the right, leaving Riise alone on the left. 

Top FPL Performers:

Giroud

Podolski

Top FPL Underperformers:

Walcott

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Buy Giroud if you expect his shooting to improve. Buy/keep Walcott if you expect Arsenal to prosper offensively. Both were very encouraging, will elaborate on both below. No new clues on Fulham so far besides Kasami's advanced position.

The Stars: Podolski and Giroud

Last week Giroud read 1 goal from 6 attempts. This week: 1 from 2. Is he becoming more clinical? Hard to say given he didn't finish the game, but at least Giroud's positioning and key passes definitely warrants investment. Pod's 2 goals were from his "late runs into the box" which might be good against teams weak against counterattacks, and since Pod didn't shoot/create much more, I'd label Pod as a "flat track bully" for now.

The Big Decision: Walcott

Good news and bad news for Wally owners. Good news is that he exists and is actually a goal/assist threat (5shots/4Keypasses). The bad? Last season all his shots from bad positions resulted in goals. This time he got away with Pod's assists, but I'd let go of Wally if we get a repeat performance and no FPL points to show for it. 

The potential Differentials: Cazorla, and Fulham in general

Cazorla created 6 chances for his teammates and attempted 3 times himself, all outside the box. Expect this kind of performance from Caz, but for his price I'd stay away until his shooting becomes something close to Bale's last season.

As fo Fulham, while Kasami's positioning remains somewhat attractive FPL-wise, what's interesting is that Martin Jol chose to focus his attacks entirely from Fulham's right when chasing the game at home. Sascha Riether's most offensive stats (4 crosses and the key pass that led to Berbatov's shot and Bent's goal) surfaced during this period, so if Fulham continue to go down that route, expect Riether to score the occasional BP and assist. 

Hull 1 Norwich 0

Tactical Setup

Hull's 4-3-3 included Livermore and Huddlestone this week, and to their credit matched Norwich stride for stride. Sagbo's red obviously turned the stats lopsidedly in Norwich's favor, and resulted to shots outside the box. Graham and Boyd's introduction didn't change much, while Rosenior did help shore out their right flank, which was increasingly being dominated by Redmond and Garrido. 

Norwich's 4-4-1-1 this week had several significant changes: Tettey comes into central midfield for Howson, pushing Howson to the right while Leroy Fer started just behind RVW. While relying on shots from outside didn't work in the first half, in the second Fer was shifted back to central mid while Snodgrass, Hoolahan and Elmander were introduced to pile on the pressure, turning Norwich into a 4-2-3-1 (Elmander just behind RVW).

Top FPL Performers:

The Hull defense

Brady

Top FPL Underperformers:

Norwich in general

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Whittaker and RVW are the only bright sparks for Norwich. Elmohamady the danger man for Hull on the right while Brady is the most threatening on the left. This week all four were relatively quiet in open play, despite the red card.

The Stars: Hull and Brady

Nothing like a red card to skew stats. As expected, Hull's shooting became worse after the red, and Hull will be pretty grateful with limiting Norwich to crosses and shots outside the box. A good example of Helm's Deep defending from Hull. Penalty was soft and red card was a tad dodgy, so don't pick up Brady expecting repeat performances such as these. 

The Big Decision: Snodgrass & RVW

While Snodgrass' introduction was a cause for optimism, his cameo resulted in 5 attempted crosses and not much else. I'd expect more game time from him in the future as I don't expect Howson to play right midfield again. RVW's shooting stats were similar to last week, so it's really a matter of how much you trust his conversion rate here for 7.0. "Better at home" is probably the best description so far, so do keep a look out for that and you might find decent rotation partners for him.

The potential Differentials: Nathan Redmond

2 starts. 2 games with CONSISTENT shooting and "take on" stats. For 5.0 this fellow is a potentially decent 5th midfielder as long as he keeps trying. 

Stoke 2 Crystal Palace 1

Tactical Setup

Stoke kept the same 4-5-1 as last week, and it's good to see Wilson OoP in defensive midifeld, who's available for 4.5. Charlie Adam in central midfield in place of Glenn Whelan was also encouraging to see. Pennant for Etherington, Whelan for Adam and Crouch for Jerome were all very like for like substitutions when Stoke were ahead. 

Palace's 4-2-3-1 with Chamakh up front this week relegated Gayle to the wing. Garvan, Wilbraham and Dobbie also lost their places while Puncheon started on the right and Campana was brought in to help out the central midfield of Dikgacoi and Jedinak, which is probably a clue as to how potentially defensive Palace can be away from home. Chasing the game, Palace brought on Garvan, Jonny Williams and then Kevin Phillips which created some chances for the substitutes, but altered little in terms of strategy. 

Top FPL Performers:

Shawcross, Huth and Chamakh

Top FPL Underperformers:

Walters, but little was expected of anyone this match anyway

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Stoke expected to deliver from set pieces, which they did. Not much expected of Palace last week.

The Stars: Shawcross, Huth and Chamakh

Shawcross' goal was his only attempt of the match. Nevertheless, any big and tall Stoke player (sorry Muniesa) wil be a threat at set pieces. Chamakh's goal was also well taken but note that it was also Chamakh's only attempt of the match. Huth is the intriguing option here as if you take off his BPS points for his assist, he's still head and shoulders (no pun intended) above everyone else. Potential bonus magnet? Would need 1 more home game to verify.

The Big Decision: Anyone from this game

Palace were actually allowed quite a lot of shots which required some work from Begovic, so while Stoke's defense has only conceded 2 goals from 2 games, the amount of shots conceded were pretty alarming, whether leading or level. Walters and Crouch's shooting stats were as expected, and Adam is confirmed to be the side's Cazorla (shots mostly outside the box plus some assist threat). No one screaming BUY ME here. 

No one from Palace stood out (not even Chamakh), so invest at your own risk. 

The potential Differentials: Not much

Etherington's corners are presenting the most crossing threat from Stoke while in open play no one stands out. For Palace, most of their chances created were from long, vertical balls forward which suits an away game strategy, but to see anyone consistently profiting from this tactic will need more games. 

Southampton 1 Sunderland 1

Tactical Setup

Southampton's 4-5-1 was also used at St. Mary's, Jay Rodriguez played just off Lambert up front while Lallana was mostly left, and Ward-Prowse started on the right. Schneiderlin coming off for Osvaldo in the second half turned Southampton into a 4-4-2 with Ward-Prowse dropping deeper alongside Schneiderlin. 

Sunderland kept their 4-4-1-1 from last week, but Diakite started in CB in place of Roberge, while in midfield Cabral was replaced by Larsson. With Sessegnon ineffective in the first half, Ji Dong Won was brought on as Sunderland defended much more compactly in the second half protecting their lead. Colback for Vaughan and Wickham for Giacherrini were like for like swaps. 

Top FPL Performers:

Fonte, Giaccherini and Ward-Prowse

Top FPL Underperformers:

Lambert, the Southampton defence in general and Altidore to some. 

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Shaw from the left and Lallana/Ward-Prowse's crosses from the right were the chief creators of Saints' chances. Cabral and Giaccherini were Sunderland's main shooters while Altidore thrived more on crosses. Of all that was concluded last week, only Ward-Prowse delivered.

The Stars: Fonte, Giaccherini and Ward-Prowse

Giaccherini I have touched on, Fonte's goal was from a set piece but Ward-Prowse was the star of the show here, taking 7 of Saints' 10 crosses in the first half. (and 7 of the team's 17 crosses in the 2nd half).

In terms of chances created Ward-Prowse was also productive (being on corners helps) with 5 key passes himself. Everyone else was either invisible or literally absent (Giaccherini had 2 attempts away from home, which was poor for his price).

The Big Decision: Altidore and Lambert

Lambert was good. 8 attempts alone, 5 in the box and 3 on target speaks volumes about his involvement when Southampton chase games. Worth keeping. Altidore didn't do much better, so the real conclusion here would be to save him for the home games, so far the H/A contrast is quite obvious.

The potential Differentials: Osvaldo, Sessegnon and Rodriguez

Sessegnon did nowt. End of story. Rodriguez was more threatening in the second half than the first, which makes him a decent H/A rotation option if you're trying to push your limits on the budget forwards. Osvaldo looked decent for the time he got, but you'll need to give him time before you spend 8.0 on him, there are just too many better choices at the moment.

Everton 0 West Brom 0

Tactical Setup

Everton kept the same formation (4-2-3-1) and lineup from the Norwich game. Kone for Jelavic and Naismith for Mirallas were like for like.

West Brom lined up a similar 4-2-2-2, but with Rosenburg in for Anelka, who is absent on compassionate leave. While Vydra and Daniels' introductions were like for like, Brunt on for Long left West Brom ending in 4-4-1-1. 

Top FPL Performers:

Jagielka, Baines, Foster and Jones

Top FPL Underperformers:

Mirallas, Barkley

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Barkley shoots from outside, Mirallas and Jelavic the most productive inside the box. Everton's left side key to Everton's output. West Brom's brightest stars last game were the fullbacks and Morrison from outside the box. No surprise that in a 0-0, Jones got a share of the BPs while Baines is in Everton's bonus considerations.

The Stars: Both defenses

With both defenses triumphing, bonus points seemed to have become the cause of HUGE debate here. Withotu going too much into the detail, a quick glance at the BPS earned by the benefactors here (9) taking off CS (4) and playing time (2) implies that these players got 3 bonus from SOMEWHERE. 

Jag: 80% pass (2) + CBIs and Recoveries (just the 14 clearances = 1)

Baines: 76% pass (1) + loads of crosses (5 open play = 1) + CBI and recoveries (1-ish)

Jones: Not enough passes (0) + CBI (14! clearances, 4 blocks, 2 interceptions = 3)

In conclusion, while CSs are needed to justify bonus, we now know how these players are likely to get bonus. Decide on what you think will remain consistent and invest accordingly.

The Big Decision: Mirallas and Morrison for some

Mirallas' goal threat didn't fade, while putting in some Key Passes too. Probably worth keeping 1-2 more games. Morrison is still attempting shots from outside while not creating much for others, which for his price puts a huge SELL on his head unfortunately. 

The potential Differentials: The rest of Everton

Frankly it's not a bad thing to have 3 Everton players in your squad right now. Barkley's shooting (5 shots mostly edge of box, 1 on target) is consistent in terms of area and accuracy. Coleman is creating chances while having some pops at goal himself. Even Pienaar at a stretch had the best goal threat after Barkley (3 shots, 2 on target)

Nothing happening for West Brom though, and with Foster's injury there's not enough value to warrant invesment in their attack or their defense. 

Newcastle 0 West Ham 0

Tactical Setup

Newcastle switched to a 2 striker system, displaying a 4-2-2-2 with Cisse and Ameobi up front while Sissoko and Anita remained relatively deep compared to Ben Arfa and Marveaux out wide. Sammy Ameobi and Gouffran in for Marveaux and Cisse were like for like subs.

Downing (right) and Jarvis (left) flanked Maiga up front instead of Cole and Jarvis last week. 4-5-1 as usual. Morrison for Diame and Cole for Downing were like for like swaps. 

Top FPL Performers:

Coloccini, Santon and Collins

Top FPL Underperformers:

Ben Arfa 

Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week

Newcastle allow too much against good opposition. At home they significantly improved, althoguh I'd give Newcastle 1 more home game before jumping at any of their defenders. Joe Cole was dangerous last game, and Nolan was productive with Downing on. Cole didn't start, so at present Cole is only a home game option, while Nolan was poor regardless of Downing or Cole on the flanks. 

The Stars: Both Defences

Similar to the Everton-WBA game, in goalless draws expect defenders to get bonuses instead of attackers. Both sides have been woeful in their shooting thoguh, West Ham only took 6 pops at goal while all of Newcastle's 16 attempts didn't really trouble Jaaskelainen. 

The Big Decision: Ben Arfa and West Ham's attack

Newcastle were dire to say the least in open play. All their shots in open play were outside the box, and sadly Newcastle's key passes weren't focused on 1 individual. West Ham's chances were also few and far in between, so you're better off with home games for West Ham attackers. 

The potential Differentials: Pretty much everyone in this game

Besides Nolan and most of West Ham's defence, everyone else involved in this match would be considered differentials for now, and frankly I wouldn't recommend picking any of these guys up in a hurry. A "possible" spark is old flame Sylvain Marveaux, who was impeccable at corners. Will need better ignition though, one for the watchlist. 

Aston Villa 0 Liverpool 1

Tactical Setup

Villa's 4-3-3 didn't change at all from last week apart from Bacuna coming in for El Ahmadi. As Villa chased the game, El Ahmadi was brought on while Bacuna moved to right back as Lowton came off, while Helenius and Tonev were brought on to provide something different for Villa. 

Liverpool stuck to their winning formula, maintaining their 4-2-3-1 with the exact same lineup. Cissokho was brought on to play wide left for a bit, shifting Coutinho center while Coutinho was later brought off for Allen. 

Top FPL Performers:

Liverpool's defense

Sturridge

Top FPL Underperformers:

Villa's attack and Coutinho

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Villa center their counterattacks off Benteke. No way to validate that this match as Villa had majority of possession. Liverpool were concluded to have a reliable front 4 while their fullbacks were usually more productive than their centerbacks, and while this theory held on a smaller scale, it was the fullback-striker link that fuctioned here, which speaks for the consistency of Liverpool's fullbacks despite Toure's cheap pricetag.

The Stars: Sturridge and Liverpool defense

Sturridge had a reputation among stat bloggers for his high conversion rate wherever he went, and this game he proved that again. In defense, while Villa could claim that they could've scored a goal at least, on the counter Enrique's width play seems to be consistent over the 2 games so far, as Johnson usually shoots while Enrique attempts to pick out passes. 

The Big Decision: Coutinho & Villa's Attack

Successive blanks for Coutinho had lots worried. The proof is in the pudding: Similar number of take ons, shots from similar areas, and on the counterattack provided very little. I don't know how many more Liverpool games will be based on counterattacking strategy, but if Liverpool do employ it again, Coutinho suffers. As for Villa, they did enough against Liverpool to warrant a goal, and if you can survive benching Benteke for his blank, Benteke is more than playable beyond the international break.

The potential Differentials: Enrique

A star as a potential differential is a huge BUY sign, but you'd probably await Kolo Toure's return from injury before you wildcard/bring him in for free. 4-3-3 seems to be trending and Enrique easily justifies his additional 1.0 over Toure. 

Cardiff 3 Man City 2

Tactical Setup

Cardiff kept the same 4-2-3-1 they put out last week, but Andrew Taylor coming in for Declan John at left back. Bellamy for Cowie was like for like while the last 2 substitutions had negligible effect. 

City kept their successful 4-2-2-2 as well, with Garcia coming in for Kompany. Nasri on for Navas while City were ahead seemed ok at the time, pushing Silva really central while Nasri took up the left flank, reminiscent of 12/13. Dzeko off for Negredo was like for like, while Fernandinho off for Milner restored some balance on the right. 

Top FPL Performers:

Campbell, Whittingham, Dzeko, Gunnarsson and Negredo

Top FPL Underperformers:

Silva to an extent, and City's defense

The Stars: The goalscorers

It's a bit worrying to see that away from home, City didn't show as much swagger as they did at home (6 shots at goal over 60 minutes) but when they chased the game it was good to see Silva and the front 2 coming alive. Just goes to show that when City chase the game, whoever they have on the pitch will have a good chance of getting points. Dzeko's substitution was puzzling initially but when Cardiff equalised Dzeko had time to prove himself and frankly didn't do enough. 

Full credit goes to Campbell for Cardiff's win, which tells you that if you don't buy a ticket, you won't win the lottery. Good 3rd striker to have, so if that's your strategy Campbell's easily startable for you at home.

The Big Decision: Sergio Aguero & David Silva

Aguero was relatively silent prior to Cardiff's equaliser, so for someone you wanna start every game, you'd probably hold back a little and wait for either Aguero's conversion rate to peak or City to bomb teams from the off. Maybe it's Wales. Next 2 away trips are Stoke and Villa, so the best time to pick up Aguero would be post Man United (assuming Champions League rotation doesn't affect him). Silva's goal and assist threat remained constant whether ahead, level or trailing which is a good sign for people who have picked him up already. Safe captain option for Hull game. 

The potential Differentials: Cardiff's midfield and Negredo

Beyond the goal, Cardiff's midfield basically were taking shots from way out. Negredo is a legitimate option for the output he produced, but this presents us with the Lukaku dilemma from last season: Do you invest in a player who has great output but potentially limited time? Only you as the FPL manager can answer that. 

Tottenham 1 Swansea 0

Tactical Setup

Spurs kept their 4-5-1 from last week, but having Capoue, Paulinho and Dembele in the center 3 instead of Siggy, Paulinho and Dembele. Lennon lost his right-wing spot to Townsend due to injury. 

For Swansea, Shelvey started behind Michu again, with Routledge and Hernandez flanking the former 2 instead of Dyer and Hernandez last week. After Bony's introduction, Michu moved in behind him while Pozuelo took up the right flank when he came on for Routledge's whose departure shifted Hernandez to the left. 

Top FPL Performers:

Soldado the Spurs defence

Top FPL Underperformers:

Swansea weren't expected to do much again. Paulinho I will touch on later, he didn't exactly underperform... 

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Soldado took most of last week's shots for Spurs, while providing some key passes himself. This week however, Spurs' midfielders focused on direct dribbling at Swansea which caused their output to increase, and subsequently Soldado's output to be limited to 1 penalty over 90 minutes. Spurs' also were observed to rely on crosses from fullbacks which was apparent again, Rose and Walker putting in 6 and 4 of them respectively. 

The Stars: Soldado and the Spurs defence

Spurs laid out a very specific strategy here to counter the threat of Michu, and it worked. Focusing on defense, Kyle Walker fully deserved his 7 BPs (taking off the CS) for his 3 Key passes, 4 crosses, 82% pass rate and standard CBI stuff. Expect this kind of output from Walker (or Rose if he improves, he's not very far off) and if Spurs get the CS Walker is virtually guaranteed bonus. 

The Big Decision: Paulinho

I'm gonna eat my words here and admit I was wrong about Paulinho. From a "flat track bully" perspective if Spurs keep this lineup I can see Paulinho/Dembele getting offensive returns.What I'd like to highlight here is that the entire midfield (Capoue included) actually attempted dribbles against Swansea here, which suggest that Swansea employed a really, really deep defense and allowed the likes of Dembele and Paulinho to take on defenders and shoot. 

HOWEVER, if you don't have him I'd suggest waiting for Lamela's involvement with Spurs before picking him up. 

The potential Differentials: Walker/Rose, Chadli, Swansea attackers

Spurs' fullbacks are scarily good (for FPL) and with 3 similarly defensive sides in the next 5 (Cardiff, Norwich and West Ham) picking anyone of Walker or Paulinho isn't a bad thing, especially if you're convinced that Lamela wouldn't affect much. Swansea badly need a Plan B as top sides are already figuring out to tame Michu. Until then, wait for Swansea's fixtures to ease up.

Man United 0 Chelsea 0

Tactical Setup

Chelsea kept their 4-2-3-1, playing Schurrle & Oscar (center), Hazard (left) and de Bruyne (right) as the front 4. Torres' introduction for de Bruyne pushed Schurrle wide right, while the other 2 substitutions towards the end were of minimal impact. 

Man United opened with their standard 4-5-1 variant, Rooney central, Welbeck left and Valencia right-sided behind RVP. Young and GIggs in for Valencia and Welbeck were like for like swaps.

Top FPL Performers:

Both defenses except Ivanovic and Jones

Top FPL Underperformers:

Both sets of attackers

Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared

Chelsea last week were concluded to be the kind that sat on a lead, and while Chelsea never took one here, Chelsea rarely chased one anyway with the double pivot of Lampard and Ramires very rarely venturing forward when the front 4 have the ball. United's "central midfield + wingplay" strategy was still evident, but in this game out of the 25 crosses put in, only 1 turned into an attempt, where RVP got his header wrong. 

The Stars: Both defenses

Similar to the Everton-WBA game, this 0-0 only required "8s and 9s" for bonuses, so aided by the clean sheet, defenders only required 2 or 3 BPS which were very attainable (defenders easily got 1 for CBI and 2/3 for pass%).

The real point to take home here folks, is that when choosing between defenders who are likely to get you CS, pick defenders that rarely get negative bonuses - Players that will get 5-6 BPS regularly with a good chance of CS based on fixtures. 

The Big Decision: Both sets of attackers

Based on offensive threat, Rooney's 3 shots on target from just outside the box do make him look good compared to everyone else. In terms of FPL, hold on to your offensive assets from both sides (and drop any Chelsea attackers if you must for the blank, they don't get any more nailed with the new signings and Champions League football coming up). 

The Potential Differentials: United's Defense

Vidic's 13 BPS this game was the only standout here, and while you wouldn't expect returns if United win 3-1 or something, his consistent BPs (5 in the first game without a CS) might make him a real FPL force this season if United go on a CS run. Keep him on the watchlists for the next game, and have some cash ready for GW5, post Man City.