In the mean time, enjoy my take on GW3's games. I've got pictures this time.
Man City 2 Hull 0
Tactical Setup
Man City lined up a 4-2-2-2 with the usual suspects in their orthodox roles, Nastasic partnering Lescott at the back instead of Garcia.
The ineffective Dzeko was subbed at half time for Negredo (who scored) and just after the goal Silva and then Aguero were replaced by Nasri and Milner respectively, shifting City's play completely towards the left as they closed out the game.
As for Hull, without the suspended Sagbo, the Tigers had Graham come in to partner Aluko up front. Quinn for Graham was a straight swap while Boyd largely operated in the same region as who he replaced, Koren.
Top FPL Performers:
Yaya Toure, Negredo, Zabaleta and the entire City defense
Top FPL Underperformers:
Dzeko, Silva, Aguero
Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week
Negredo's shooting stats picked up last week for the limited time he got, and was rewarded this week with his goal. SIlva's constant offensive threat last week has waned. Perhaps things might have ended differently if City trailed from that Aluko 1v1 earlier on, but for the price you pay for City attackers you do not want to rely on City to trail before hoping for FPL returns.
The Stars: Toure, Negredo, MCI Defense
Looking at shooting stats, although City's production did improve at half time (8 shots to 4), none of City's attackers looked head and shoulders above the rest. Negredo led with 3 pops at goal with only 45 minutes, and I wouldn't be surprised if Negredo started the next game as a result. Yaya's goal was well taken, but be wary that for 8.5, the majority of Yaya's offensive threat will be from set pieces as he does little in open play at the moment.
Also be warned that Hull matched City toe-to-toe and could have easily conceded prior to half time. "Invest at your own risk" at the moment.
The Big Decision: The rest of City's attackers.
Over 90 minutes, Silva, Dzeko and Aguero combined had less attempts at goal than Negredo in 45 minutes. Whatever the reason, you'd probably give any City attackers 1 more week to change the situation and sell if things don't.
The potential Differentials: Hull Attack
Full credit to Hull for at least giving City a couple of scares, but FPL wise it's hard to find a consistent goal threat from this side despite the conclusions made so far. Their hot issue, Robert Brady, had 0 attempts and 0 Key Passes, which makes the entire side an enigma until Hull score a goal that isn't a penalty.
Norwich 1 Southampton 0
Tactical Setup
Norwich's 4-4-1-1 remained, but Fer didn't start in the advanced role, sitting in midfield alongside Johnson while Elmander started alongside van Wolfswinkel (RVW) up front. Snodgrass also started instead of Howson last week. Howson later came in to replace Elmander, which bolstered the midfield while protecting the lead.
For Southampton, Rodriguez from last week was sacrificed for Osvaldo as Saints started with a 4-5-1 but with Ward-Prowse (JWP) supposed in right midfield, Lallana left. Chambers started at right back ahead of Clyne and Shaw, both on the bench. While Ramirez' introduction for Lallana didn't improve things, whiel Southampton trailed Davis was brought on for more offensive threat (2 shots at goal) while the faded Osvaldo was replaced by Rodriguez in the last 10.
Top FPL Performers:
Scorer + Assister (Redmond + Fer), Bassong and the defense
Top FPL Underperformers:
Southampton in general and RVW
Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared
RVW concluded as "better at home". 0 attempts at goal. For 7.0 you might keep a little longer. Redmond shoots a lot. 1 goal out of 4 attempts from similar positions. Snodgrass is an goal + assist threat when he's on fire. 13 attempted crosses, 2 Key Passes and 2 pops at goal. He's getting there.
The Stars: Fer and Redmond
The stats don't lie. Both sides were pretty even from start to finish, and frankly Norwich took their chances better. Could easily have ended 2-2. For the star performers here, their points were really, really deserved as Fer did have shooting and creation stats throughout the 90 minutes. For Fer, beyond the assist and 90 minutes he also had 3 BPs, which probably was carried by his 94% pass rate.
The Big Decision: Anyone from Southampton
Ward-Prowse had 7 crosses, 1 shot and 1 key pass. With a 94% pass rate he had the most BPS out of the Southampton team, so you don't HAVE to drop him, but you don't have to get him at a whim either. The rest of Southampton, however, displayed worrying shooting stats as no one attempted more than twice on goal. Home game against West Ham is the deal-breaker.
The potential Differentials: Bassong
Bassong's 8 BPS were enough for 2 BPs to tie with Redmond. Take away the CS and the 90 minutes, Bassong only got 2 BPS through CBI alone, so while he's the best of the Norwich defenders BP-wise, for the EXTRA price you pay I'd rather have Turner, who wasn't too far off the BPs himself.
Cardiff 0 Everton 0
Tactical Setup
Unchanged starting lineup from Cardiff. Bellamy for Cowie, Kim for Maynard and Mutch's introduction were all like for like.
Everton's 4-2-3-1 was also unchanged from last week. Jelavic for Kone was like for like, while Mirallas off for Delofeu didn't have a big enough impact.
Top FPL Performers:
Everton's defense
Top FPL Underperformers:
All the attackers on the pitch (although some had good enough offensive stats to warrant a HOLD)
Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared
Everton's left the crux of their attacks. Jelavic and MIrallas the chief shooters in the box while Barkley shoots from outside. Mirallas 3 pops. Jelavic 2 pops. Barkley 4 blocked shots from outside. Somehow they didn't score. At least they're trying. Baines the chief creator with 13 crosses, 2 key passes. Pienaar, Barkley and Coleman created just as much.
The Stars: Everton's defense
10, 9, and 8 BPs were enough to warrant BPs this game. After 2 weeks of Sample data, you can make a reasonable decision when picking defenders from Everton:
- CBs HUGELY rely on pass % and CBI. Centerbacks that get BPs usually have 2-3 from Pass % and 2 from CBI alone. A centerback that doesn't foul often helps too.
- Fullbacks rely more on crosses, ESPECIALLY BAINES. Despite getting 0 from CBI he put in a lot of crosses, which probably contributed to the BPS to be on par with the centerbacks.
The Big Decision: Everton attackers and Cardiff in general
Everton created enough for an away game. When Everton score the points will flow, so unless Everton get outplayed somehow, you'd be pretty safe with holding Everton attacking players.
Over 90 minutes Cardiff AT HOME had 4 attempts at goal, all outside the box. You'd have Cardiff for the odd playable home game, but for those looking for a cheap striker you're better off looking at Crystal Palace or the improving Hull.
The potential Differentials: Not much
Pienaar was disappointing. Jelavic needs to start scoring to gain attention. Otherwise, stick to the safe options for now.
Newcastle 1 Fulham 0
Tactical Setup
Newcastle were unchanged from last week, but it was the substitutes that made the real difference: Cabaye, Gouffran and Remy turned Newcastle literally into a 4-2-4 with Ben Arfa on the right wing and Remy on the left wing super advanced.
Fulham tried to build on the goal against Arsenal last week by starting with 2 forwards at the expense of Kasami. Ruiz was also granted a start at the expense of Taarabt, which basically wards off any potential interest in Fulham attack until further notice. Briggs on for Riether was like for like, while Taarabt on for Berbatov had Taarabt really advanced for a moment and Rodallega on for SIdwell in the last few minutes had negligible impact.
Top FPL Performers:
Ben Arfa (HBA), Newcastle Defense
Top FPL Underperformers:
Fulham attack
Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared
Fulham go down the right when chasing the game. Different personnel, and hence different strategy. Didn't work out. Newcastle improved from last week and had 25 shots, including 7 shots in the last 10 minutes. Scary.
The Stars: Newcastle's attack
Last week Newcastle recorded a similar volume of shots but didn't have a single one on target. It's good to see that when allowed, Newcastle actally were pretty capable of throwing the sink at opposition defences, so while Newcastle's opponents in the next few weeks are a mixed bag, perhaps those employing a 4-3-3 strategy could have HBA in reserve, playing 2 big mids while rotating HBA as 1 of the other 3.
In defence, Coloccini's and Mbiwa scored the trifecta of D-points here: CS (4), Pass % (3) and CBI (2) added to 2 points for 90 minutes easily accounted for the 10/11 point BPS haul. Without the CS only Stockdale (Fulham's GK) could rival their BPS there, so I wouldn't exactly be laughing at any Mbiwa owners for 4.5.
The Big Decision: Having more than 1 Newcastle player
Keep in mind that (A) in offense, Newcastle's effort are relatively concentrated on HBA, so that's as far as I'd go. In defense, there might be better alternatives (and rotation partners) for the price you pay, as we know that Newcastle still allow quite a lot against decent attacking sides.
GW12 onwards they look way, way better.
The Potential Differentials: Debuchy
This game he put in 4 shots, 2 on target and attempted 4 crosses, with 1 key pass. Not the best, but in case you miss the Mbiwa train (if it ever takes off) Debuchy is a bad option. Foul prone though, he's a differential for a reason. Santon was unspectacular.
West Ham 0 Stoke 1
Tactical Setup
West Ham unsurprising XI, same as last week. Morrison for Downing I will touch on later, while Collison for Noble and Elliot Lee late on for Diame did little.
Stoke also named an expected XI with the expected 4-5-1, but Jones started ahead of Crouch up top. Whelan came in later for Adam while Pennant was in a straight swap for Etherington.
Top FPL Performers:
Stoke Defence
Top FPL Underperformers:
West Ham in General
Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared
Stoke to deliver from set pieces. What a free kick from Pennant. West Ham more dangerous with Downing + Nolan combo. West Ham did not deliver offensively. Probably avoid them until Carroll gets back. What a difference a ponytail makes.
The Stars: Stoke's defense
Personally I'd rather discredit West Ham here rather than credit Stoke, their most offensive threat that game was Winston Reid. Strangely for Stoke's height, none of Stoke's chances (at least from MOTD highlights) were through crosses this game. I'd also like to give Marc Wilson a word or two as he's the first "unique" genuine OoP defender so far in FPL. I'll have to shoot down any hopes of a bonus darling for this type of player (he only got 9BPS) before any hype surrounds him.
The Big Decision: Nolan, Collins
Sell. Next few home games aren't kind. Keep Collins though, away from home they're not bad defensively at least.
The potential Differentials: Anyone that isn't Nolan
Frankly, NO ONE was good offensively in this game. Defensively if 9 BPS is required for maximum bonus, you wouldn't find gems from both these sides either. I did mention Huth as a Bonus magnet potentially once and I'd save him for the home games, where the "good' run starts GW6. Keep tabs and wait it out, no rush for either set of players now.
Arsenal 1 Spurs 0
Tactical Setup
The usual suspects started in their default positions for Arsenal bar Jenkinson for the unwell Sagna and Cazorla starting left side in place of the injured Podolski, Rosicky filling Cazorla's old spot. As Arsenal led at half time Flamini was brought on for similarly positioned Wilshere while Rosicky out for Monreal pushed Cazorla central late in the game.
The same XI last week took the field against Arsenal, although you could argue that Spurs are now a 4-5-1 variant with Dembele, Capoue and Paulinho central. Defoe's introduction briefly turned Spurs into a 4-4-2 while Lamela and Sandro's introduction were like for like.
Top FPL Performers:
Walcott + Giroud (Goal scorer + assister), Arsenal's defense
Top FPL Underperformers:
Spurs attack
Lessons Learnt from Last Week and how they fared this week
Giroud and Walcott make most of Arsenal's offensive output, and both combined to score today. Podolski, who I labelled as a flat track bully last week is injured so he's on Keep in view (KIV) status for now. Spurs were identified to have 3 sources of attack:
- Soldado, who had 2 attempts this game,
- The midfield's direct dribbling, which wasnt' apparent as last week, so for now the conclusion is that the midfielders flourish against lower sides
- Fullback crosses, where Rose had 5 crosses (mostly first half) and Walker had 8 (mostly 2nd half). None turned out to be key passes though, so it's an avenue of attack but a bloody ineffective one. Chadli was also quite prominent in this strategy.
The Stars: Giroud and Walcott, and Arsenal's defense
Walcott's output continues to be consistent. Shot quality, volume and key passes all have been similar to last week, so do keep him if you can, even if he missed out on the bonuses this week. Giroud's output was also encouraging, so he's a keep/buy for the upcoming fixtures. Beyond the clean sheets, what separated Mert over everyone else was his pass rate. He barely made it over the 30 pass mark this week, so if you're choosing between Arsenal defenders I'd rather have one of the fullbacks.
The Big Decision: Soldado
Soldado's output finally was vindicated with a solid 2 in FPL. As the supposed finisher of Spurs' chances not much was created for him until the substitutions came in, so if you're keen on Spurs' new signings (and don't have a wildcard) then keep Soldado if you can and monitor his output over the next few games.
The potential Differentials: Lamela, Paulinho and Chadli
Lamela was not bad for his limited minutes. Passes and shots were similar to Walcott so if he shows these stats against Norwich he'll be a good differential. Paulinho and Dembele were muted against Arsenal and might fare better against deeper defenses (as shown with Swansea last week) and Cardiff is actually a good start.
West Brom 0 Swansea 2
Tactical Setup
West Brom started Sinclair on the left wing instead of Dorrans. He came on for Morrison at half time, while Berahino and Rosenburg's introduction (at Sinclair and Yacob's expense) turned West Brom into a 4-2-4, Long deepest among the 4 up front.
Swansea have finally started with Bony up front in a 4-2-3-1, this time Routledge and Hernandez flanking the front pair. 2 weeks in a row now those two. Canas and Shelvey started in midfield again. Pozuelo and de Guzman's introduction pushed Michu up front, turning into a 4-5-1 with Pozuelo the most advanced of the central midfielders.
Top FPL Performers:
Both goalscorers (Hernandez and Davies) and CS defender Chico
Top FPL Underperformers:
Bony probably, given that he started the game but I'm being harsh here
Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared
West Brom are still one of the teams to avoid early season. Besides being pretty welcoming at home, Swansea's fixtures haven't given many clues about them, so I'll adequately assess Swansea's playstyle here.
The Stars: Hernandez, Ben Davies, and the supporting cast (Michu)
The game had its spells. When level both sides went for it, and understandably Swansea slowed down after that an got their second from a counter. 2 points to take from this game:
- When Swansea decide to play ball, their midfielders take shots from outside the box while the striker (just Bony really) and fullbacks generally poach inside the box from open play.
- Routledge shoots, while Hernandez is more of a crosser. His goal was off the counter attack, while his 4 attempts throughout the match were during this period where Swansea were allowing WBA to attack and hit them back on the counter.
In conclusion, Hernandez is a goal threat but only on the counter. Better at away games, strange as it sounds.
The Big Decision: Michu
There was some that had him specifically for this match, and they were somewhat rewarded with his assist. Over 90 minutes though he didn't shoot much (but created 6 chances), so for the price you pay you're better off investing it in defense (based on current trends anyway) and if you want Swansea cover go Bony when he starts his goalscoring run or Hernandez for the time being.
The potential Differentials: Bony, Swansea's defs and anyone from West Brom
Over 66 minutes Bony also did very little, Chico noticably got 10 BPS, which means that without a CS he usually would be in contention anyway. The pass% (3) got him the bulk of it probably, and while I expect this kind of stat from Chico almost every game, the CS is still needed for the BPs, so wait for favourable fixtures to fall and Chico would be a decent option.
As for West Brom, they are showing signs of life, but only when they have the motivation. You'd only start looking at them when/if they go on a winning run. Until then, wait for them to actually score. Currently Morrison is still the brightest spark.
Liverpool 1 Man United 0
Tactical Setup
Liverpool fielded a similar XI with Skrtel coming in for the injured Kolo Toure. Aspas out for Sterling pushed Coutinho centrally and Johnson off for Wisdom was like for like (due to injury) while Alberto's introduction had minimal impact.
United's 4-5-1 remained, although Giggs and Young started ahead of Valencia and Rooney from last week. With Welbeck central the formation might suggest a 4-4-2 I know, but heat maps and pass patterns show that Welbeck was centrally right behind RVP. Valencia on for Jones was due to injury while Nani on for Young was like for like. Late in the game Hernandez' introduction turned United into a 4-4-2 with Welbeck mostly left and Nani right.
Top FPL Performers:
Sturridge and Pool's defense
Top FPL Underperformers:
All attackers bar Sturridge
Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared
United's wingplay faultered again, with just the 1 cross from 32 creating a chance. United's chief playmaker, Carrick, was efficiently pressed down and the strategy worked: The difference in his pass% in the first half (69) and the second (88) showed how Liverpool successfully harried Carrick off the ball. Liverpool were concluded to have 2 modes of attack: Their front 4 (centered around Sturridge) and their fullbacks. This game the fullbacks were kept disciplined, while up top Coutinho, Sturridge and Gerrard were the most effective.
The Stars: Liverpool in General
Liverpool hit United where it hurt the most and frankly, United saw it coming and attempted to play to the odds too, attempting to minimise the damage in the first half and coming back stronger in the second. Despite Liverpool outplaying Man United 1st half their best chances were all outside the box, while in the box beyond the goal (from deflected shot off a corner) everything was blocked. United's attempt to come back stronger after the break showed (20 crosses to 8 in the first) but they couldn't fashion a clear-cut enough chance in the end.
The Big Decision: Robin Reliant, Coutinho
Both players did in this match what they did best, but both players' FPL output were a victim of different things: RVP's service let him down, while Coutinho was halted by de Gea in the first half while centrally he was ineffective. RVP's service will improve as the fixtures ease up, so keep him but don't buy him in a hurry if you don't have him. Your decision on Coutinho relies on whether you think he'll try something different centrally or out wide.
The potential Differentials: Liverpool's defense
The "CS = BP for defenders" argument has been running around quite a lot now, and usually what puts a defender over the other seems to be pass% and minimal fouls. Agger got the max bonus aided by his assist which is nice for 1 game, so it's not UNREASONABLE to get him but Enrique is more consistent offense-wise.
Palace 3 Sunderland 1
Tactical Setup
Palace lined up a more offensive 4-4-2 this week with Gayle alongside Chamakh up front instead of being on the wings. As a result Campana took up a more left sided role, which wasn't very much in the end. Williams who came on for him in the 2nd half became a more direct threat, while O'Keefe was brought on to bolster the midfield late on.
Sunderland's starting formation was similar to the end of last week's game, but with Gardner injured Celustka moved from left to right-back, Colback replacing his spot while Vaughan replaced Colback in midfield. Ji off for Fletcher and Mavrias on for Giaccherini were like for like.
Top FPL Performers:
Goal scorers Gayle, Gabbidon and Fletcher
Top FPL Underperformers:
Giaccherini? Would anyone have attacking players from either side here?
Lessons Learnt from Last Week & How they Fared
Highlight last week for Palace was their sole goal from the long ball, but for majority of the game their best chances were off the counter attack. Palace's chances showcased Sunderland's poor defending more than anything, so do look out for teams that play Sunderland unless Di Canio makes wholesale changes at the back.
Last week Sunderland didn't show anything positive consistently and this week confirmed that they were only consistently BAD at everything from shots taken to shots conceded. Man United, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool and Swansea players have cause for optimism.
The Stars: Palace Attack and Fletcher
Unfortunately I'm gonna have to douse any fires here as I don't expect many more defenses to really be caught out by Palace's counterattacks, Even in open play Palace chose to take shots outside the box, so for the price you pay you expect that sort of shot quality from your strikers. Any Palace player holders should be aware that they shouldn't expect much by starting Palace players next game.
The Big Decision & Potential Differentials: Anyone from either side
Sunderland is a big no-no now. Palace offensively are one-dimensional at the moment and their chances are pretty spread out between their attackers, so I'd hold off them for now. Their defence though have kept Spurs and Sunderland to a minimum now, so you at least have some reason to feel safe playing Palace defenders at home. Swansea, Fulham, Arsenal, Everton and West Ham areyour next home games.
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