Thursday 5 October 2017

Everton vs. Burnley, 2017/18 - Systems vs. Players

Everton vs. Burnley was fantastic case study of the differences between assembling a quality squad with significant overlay compared to maintaining a tried and tested method, where nuances in formation only will affect playstyle. Ignoring the final 0-1 scoreline, this blog post will serve as a tactical breakdown (after watching the full match) of both teams' approaches, leading to FPL implications made in the author's opinion.




Agenda (Ctrl-F the following terms to skip to section)

  1. The Backdrop - some background information for those who haven't followed either team all season
  2. Systems Dynamics- a detailed look into how both sides were setup in terms of the roles of the key players
  3. Match Flow - How the match flowed up until significant substitutions were made
  4. FPL Implications

1. The Backdrop


Everton


Transfers

Everton's 2017/18 summer was filled with activity, grabbing many headlines by bringing in a mixed bag of players - proven quality in the Premier League and players who are promising talents in foreign leagues were bought, ending the era of the "workhorse" that shadowed Everton since the PL's inception.

Without Gareth Barry, James McCarthy and Ross Barkley, the starting XI that took the field under Ronald Koeman only had 1 survivor from their 2013/14 squad that finished 5th: left-back Leighton Baines.

Lineup

Everton's 4-2-3-1 had PL experience at the back, abundant energy in midfield and an unpredictable amount of technical ability up front:

  • Keane and Williams weren't strangers to the English top flight while Cuco Martina had spells playing for Southampton at right back; 
  • Morgan Schneiderlin and Idrissa Gueye were tasked to patrol central midfield after making their names in those positions at Southampton and Aston Villa respectively; 
  • Up front, despite discouraging results, the gaffer prioritised energy and urgency up front with form striker Niasse leading the line, supplied by Sigurdsson, Calvert-Lewin and x-factor Nikola Vlasic.


Burnley


Transfers

Burnley's equivalent summer was the polar opposite in terms of activity, with like-for-like replacements coming in for the players that departed.

However, by investing in relatively unknown quantities, you would've been forgiven for thinking that Burnley splurged a little too much - 15 million pounds for Chris Wood and 10 million pounds for Jack Cork are eye-bulging sums for a club of their position.

Lineup

Burnley's 4-3-2-1 was a pale shadow of the 4-4-2 that served as their bread and butter last season.

  • Keane's understudy, Tarkowski, stepped up at center-back; 
  • Cork, taking the place of the aging Dean Marney, added passing quality to the calm distribution of Steven Defour and the tactical flexibility of Jeff Hendrick. 
  • While the Clarets survived on the Gray-Vokes partnership, Gray's replacement, Chris Wood led the line alone with creating coming from midfield in the shape of Robbie Brady and Scott Arfield sticking close to him up front.


2. System Dynamics

Introduction

Readers who are familiar with my articles should be well aware that I do not write "concise" or marketable. It is important to remember that systems are more than exploiting numerical advantages when formations collide; individual battles, the tempo set by the gaffer by both sides and how player behaviour integrates with team dynamics all play a part in "match flow" which will be highlighted here.

First, I will raise the roles of each team that was fixed or flexible; then, I'll go into Match Flow, i.e. how both teams squared up against each other. I will not go into the dynamics of counterattacking play; I'll only mention it if it concerned any chances during the game, or if it has direct FPL implications.

Team Dynamics


Everton - The Static Roles

Everton's 4-2-3-1 set extremely strict roles for most of the starting XI, albeit attuning to their preferred playstyle.
  • Both fullbacks stayed close to their touchline, with their furthest ventures as far as the opposite touchline; Baines attempted the early short pass into one of the playmakers where possible while Martina's preference was either cross early or drive to the byline for a cutback.
  • Sigurdsson attempted to stay within "1-2 passing" range of Niasse;
  • Gueye and Schneiderlin had roles as central midfielders, only to advance when the ball entered their area of control.

Everton - The Flexible Forwards

  • Up front, Nikola Vlasic was a forward who started "between the lines", but attempted to link up with his teammates wherever he chose. 
  • As a result of this movement, Calvert-Lewin (C.L. for now) alternated between a striker in line with the second centerback and a short passing option for Sigurdsson. 
  • Lastly, Oumar Niasse, constantly playing on the shoulder of a centerback of his choice, occasionally drifted out to the left flank in order to combine with Baines, Vlasic or Sigurdsson.

Burnley - The Static Roles

Burnley's 4-3-2-1 was only strict in a positional sense; having so little of the ball meant that their best passages of play throughout the game were initiated in Everton's half, usually off a long clearance due to the pressure by Everton's energetic forwards.


Burnley - The Flexible

It is notable that Burnley's clearances this game mainly were aimed towards the left-half of the pitch; this is perhaps a tactical instruction from the gaffer, targeting the most winnable aerial matchup possible - Chris Wood vs. Morgan Schneiderlin.
  • If Burnley retained possession, Jack Cork and Jeff Hendrick were seen making multiple lung-bursting runs from midfield, usually halting at the edge of the box for a long shot
  • Playmaker Scott Arfield could choose between Wood, the aforementioned Cork or width support in the form of left-back Stephen Ward. 
  • Arfield was also spotted taking up central positions when Chris Wood drifted wide.


3. Match Flow


Match Tempo

A large part of the opening hour was dominated by 2 themes: Everton failing to construct meaningful attacks and Burnley's resultant goalkicks hastening the tempo, creating a majority of the chances.

Burnley's goal was completely against the match flow stated above. However, Everton's systemic weaknesses were gloriously exposed here and the "attack vs. defense" breakdowns should shed some light in this approach.

Tactical Breakdown Approach

The game is broken down into a simpler version of Mourinho's "periodisation" concept because as stated earlier, there's no real point elaborating on transitions. Hence, both teams will have a "buildup phase", starting from the goalkeeper, then a "Creativity Phase" where the FPL-relevant points will come in.

Lastly, I'll comment on how each side's defense dealt with these threats from a "team setup" perspective.

Eve attack vs. Bur Def - Buildup Phase


Gueye & Schneiderlin's static positioning causing problems


In possession, most managers in the league have a "no. 6" midfielder that initiates attacks from as deep as inline with the centerbacks. Most of them in the PL either drop between centerbacks, receive a short pass and play an incisive one into midfield, or they move laterally across the pitch instead, offering a short, diagonal pass option for the centerbacks to make. 

For Everton's case, Schneiderlin and Gueye did neither to move away from their markers, who were Hendrick and Arfield/Brady. This put the onus on the back four to find the front four; unfortunately, under the pressure of Chris Wood, the Toffees completely botched their passes until the second half. 

This deficiency in possession led to Everton unable to sustain long periods of owning the ball; while they ran into dead ends half the time, conceding possession through hoofed clearances, there were movements off the left flank and the final third that did encourage some link-up play.

The left flank: Baines had Schneiderlin


Baines' give-and-go ability was clearly studied by Burnley as the left-back had the ball in the opposition half plenty; however, Burnley marked out all of Baines' passing options, ensuring the ball never returned to Baines, putting severe pressure on Schneiderlin, Sigurdsson and Niasse in order to force the ball backwards to Gueye.

Everton's decision making upon being forced back was also extremely rushed; Gueye shooting from distance is always an option that should be tried to catch teams out, but in a game where Everton struggled to maintain momentum in possession, a shot from distance that doesn't result in a goal will result in a long wait before possession is won back, hurting Everton's control over the game in the long term.

Eve attack vs. Bur Def  - Creativity Phase


Combinations in final third are existent but rushed. 

Koeman's selection in the advanced third of the pitch had opportunities to show their class and they manifested in the form of "playmaking". Usually, a playmaker would initiate a play by executing a "creative" action, either through beating a man or receiving the ball in a position out of his default one.

The Playmakers


  • Volatile playmaker - Vlasic 
Vlasic's unpredictability lies in the all-rounded skillset he possesses. His dribbling ability was revealed on his debut in the Europa League; here he ran into a few cul-de-sacs on the right flank, at times taking on two Burnley players at once. 

Secondly, his ability to create chances as a no. 10 depended on his off-the-ball runs to receive possession in unusual spaces rather than his passing quality. In this game, Vlasic had the knack to sprint into the "space between the lines" when he sensed that an Everton attack was about to transition into the final third - Everton's earliest chance actually came from Vlasic flick over the Burnley backline for Niasse, which was the result of this very movement.

  • Pivot playmaker - Siggy 
Famed for his 1-touch play with Bony at Swansea, Niasse & Gueye did attempt combinations here but the chemistry wasn't present - in their most successful passages of play, their passes made it but Siggy's body shape was often not ready to shoot, requiring extra touches. 

As a result, these chances were snuffed out by Burnley, with the most clear-cut example being the pass he received just outside the 6-yard box 15 minutes in.

  • Secondary pivot playmaker - Niasse 
Niasse dropped off a lot to receive from the central midfielders/Baines but Niasse's one-touch play was extremely poor, despite his positive intentions. The issue with Niasse is that his first priority in possession is obvious -  Burnley allowed Niasse to receive the ball on the turn, choosing to intercept his one-touch play instead.

Niasse's dribbling style more reactionary than space creating; he tended to sidestep tackles instead of attempting to beat his man to create space, often falling foul to the "second tackle". It was no surprise that Niasse was dispossessed of the ball 8 times throughout the match, mostly in the area just outside the box, where he attempted to play one-twos with the other 3 forwards.

Burnley's zonal patrolling executed well, but holes were present


While Burnley's approach of dealing with Everton's creative threats appeared systematic and organised, the truth is that they exposed Everton's incoherent attack and it was clear to see that prior to the opening goal, moments of quality would certainly open Burnley up.

What occurred on the pitch is that Burnley had specific instructions to compress on certain zones while "pushing out" when Everton moved the ball away from certain players. This season, the "two banks of four" convention that Burnley are renowned for is modified slightly as they defend as a 4-5-1; 2017/18's defensive scheme has specific instruction to instruct the midfield line to pressurise opposition midfielders that are weakest on the ball in sync, shutting off his time on the ball as well as his immediate passing options.

The systematic press worked wonderfully when applied on players who didn't have the ability to bypass his man, such as Niasse, Schneiderlin and Gueye; Burnley's holes were the most obvious when Everton played first-time passes to the front four, particularly when C.L. received the ball first time from a Sigurdsson flick.

Bur attack vs. Eve def - Buildup Phase


The direct balls into the final 3rd. 

Burnley's decision to initiate play in Everton's half had significant ramifications because of the scheme they attempted to win the second ball - the outcomes of the initial long ball throughout the first half determined who had the next chance of the game.

The pros of Dyche's strategy was that using a direct ball forward enabled all of Burnley's "flexible" roles instantly, instantly shifting into the creative phase. The cons: Burnley committed a surprising amount of men forward to win the second ball. When Everton intercepted immediately and played the ball forward immediately, they shifted into their most dangerous counterattacks.

Fortunately, a large portion of the long balls took time for Everton take to resolve (usually after some head tennis). This led to either set-piece stoppages or allowed Burnley to reset their shape.

Bur attack vs. Eve def - Creativity Phase


Burnley's successful long balls win pull Everton's crucial players out of position. 

Predominantly on the left-flank, Chris Wood usually won the ball against one of the central midfielders, freeing up attacking midfielder Scott Arfield or Robbie Brady. From there, various options opened up for the Clarets as somebody from beyond Schneiderlin's zone had to cover for him.

The time and space afforded to Arfield also owed largely to the relatively conservative positioning of Everton's right-back, Cuco Martina. Martina stayed in line with his centerbacks in the first half, which meant Arfield usually received the ball outside Martina's zone and then running at the Everton backline. 

This pattern of play also occurred on the right flank with Robbie Brady benefiting off Wood's knockdowns once in a while. However, Baines stuck tighter to Brady and as a result, Brady's influence was negated sufficiently.

  • Option 1: The wide options
Left-sided midfielder Scott Arfield usually picked up the pieces whenever Wood won the initial aerial duel on his side. His presence was particularly noticeable when Burnley clear their lines from deep; tasked with protecting the left-touchline alongside Ward, Arfield would usually be the first runner to sprint out of defense to be in passing proximity of Wood.

Ward's supporting runs were tracked by Vlasic, but Ward's initiative constantly ensured that he was ahead of Vlasic to receive a pass close to the byline. Burnley's most threatening cross came via that passage of play in the first half and there's no need for elaboration on Ward's role in the goal.

  • Option 2: Hendrick & Cork
Although unused in the first half, Hendrick and Cork's supporting runs were observed to be consistently present when Burnley won the ball. Cork's positions primarily set himself up as a shooting option from outside the box; Hendrick prioritised being the short-pass option to be an additional playmaker.

Because they were unused, their runs only became useful after Arfield's initial runs broke down. Hendrick wasn't afraid to attempt switching play to Brady's right flank, while Cork also managed an attempt from the edge of the box himself.

Everton's proactive press and its pros/cons


Koeman played to the law of numbers by banking on Burnley's being uncomfortable when pressured with the ball on the turn; his press wasn't exactly "high", but Burnley's attackers were specifically tracked until they passed the ball off. Wood and Brady in particular were hounded in the first half, sometimes to the extent of Michael Keane moving into midfield as a result of this press.
This type of press can be considered "individualistic" as each man had a specific man or zone to press - there was no coordination or handoff set in place between the players. Without prioritising a shape, Schneiderlin and Gueye were tasked with the most ground to cover; one Burnley cross-field switch basically had Gueye and Schneiderlin rushing over, resulting in Hendrick's goal.

4. FPL Implications


Author's Opinion


Everton

As the post title suggests, the Toffees' performance here suggests that Koeman is figuring his best attacking system out through trial and error. Without looking at their previous games, in my mind there is no doubt that Koeman will shuffle his forwards around next game. The positives for me are that:
  • Sigurdsson has proved to adapt well enough in his role as a no.10, no matter who plays around him
  • Calvert-Lewin has various underrated qualities that Everton have yet to exploit. Besides his pace, he has the knack of robbing players of the ball from their blind side as well as the ability to position himself fantastically as the out-ball for counterattacks.
However, among the things he has to work on are:
  • A system to beat pressure put on by forwards, particularly if they're high up the pitch. If Everton cannot work out a way to maintain possession at the back, they cannot assert dominance against weaker sides.
  • The familiarity of reverting to a 4-man defense as they played with 5 defenders at the start of the season. The existing space that Schneiderlin and Gueye have to cover was previously insured by the luxury of an extra center-back able to step up into midfield; Koeman has to either introduce Tom Davies alongside the pair or revert to 3 at the back.
  • A playstyle that suits the talents of his forwards. The current front four are capable but extremely reliant on Niasse as he's the only forward that's willing to leave his default position to receive the ball; either pair him with a forward that can rotate fluidly into his position (like Sandro) or field someone that will do that for him (like Rooney).

Without the above problems solved, it's hard to see Everton providing a consistent threat; they simply don't look like they'll dominate weaker sides to have their forwards firing on all cylinders just yet.

Burnley

The system that Sean Dyche has in place is arguably primitive, but he has committed his players to live and die by this strategy. Personally, Burnley's strategy suits the nature of being an underdog: throw the game into chaos (via the longball) and take the share of chances you get. 

Burnley exploited this strategy fantastically through the talent of Ings (2014/15), Gray and Vokes(2016/17), but this season they've added a feather to their cap:
  • A revamped central midfield patrolled by Defour and Jack Cork has allowed the ball to reach Wood through multiple avenues. 
  • Burnley were capable of feeding passes to Wood's feet with passes along the deck; this was a vast contrast to their previous seasons, encompassed by their opener against Chelsea on opening day.
At the end of the day, the burning question about Burnley is: "Are Burnley a different side compared to the direct & organised side from 2016/17?" and the answer is yes. 

The side remains the same, but in terms of goal threats they have adapted well to the new set of players at their disposal: 
  • The fullbacks are more involved in attacks, now that the wingers are the playmakers instead of the front 2
  • Burnley now possess a "roaming" player in the form of Jeff Hendrick, who has Cork and Defour behind him. 
  • Scott Arfield and Robbie Brady are now sharing equal creative threat, although Brady arguably has the more prominent role with set piece duty and fantastic crossing ability
Most crucially, what we should look out for is how Dyche utilises his 4 forwards from here on in. Against Everton, they targeted the half-space between Keane and Martina; there's a good chance that Burnley will target a different zone depending on their opposition.

Methodology in FPL Recommendation

The recommendations I'll make here will depend on a combination of factors:
  1. The Players' Roles in attack
  2. The Repeat-ability of the said Roles
  3. Their Matchups against their upcoming opponents
Stylistically, I'll categorise them as such: 
  1. Reliables - Players that should deliver based on excelling in 2 of the 3 factors mentioned in the previous section
  2. Mavericks - Players with inherent ability to justify being bought in FPL, but in this case they'll have a reason to see the stars align for them
  3. False Dawns - Players that everyone should avoid despite what the media narrative is

Reliables


Everton

Sigurdsson (8.2m, MID)
  • Pro: Has shown ability to link-up with players no matter who he's played alongside
  • Pro: Either creates chances or receives passes inside the penalty area to shoot/create shots for
  • Con: Next 2 favourable games are away from home, which might prompt a change in system

Burnley

Brady (5.5m, MID)
  • Pro: Remains one of the top creators for Burnley
  • Pro: Will be fielded against West Ham's weak-link Noble, followed by a Newcastle side that is relatively poor away from home
  • Con: Relies on aerials from Wood, but West Ham and Newcastle's aerial prowess are stronger than Everton's

Mavericks

Everton

Calvert-Lewin (5.0m, MID)
  • Pro: Has shown pace, the selflessness to assist and an eye for a pass. 
  • Con: Has the tendency to concede unnecessary fouls, while he's not the first option to be passed to in open play.
  • X-Factor: Based on team state at the moment, has the likeliest of being involved in goals since they're more dangerous on the counterattacks and he's the furthest forward. Their upcoming opponents (Brighton, Watford) are sides that chase a result when trailing, meaning counterattacks are more likely to occur should Everton lead.

    Burnley

    Hendrick (5.4m, MID)
    • Pro: Has a free role that will likely trouble the likes of Noble and Shelvey
    • Con: Has a tendency to play the "assist the assister" role. Also, he's reliant on service from the flanks, where West Ham and Newcastle have locked and double-bolted in recent games
    • X-Factor: Similar to Brady, Hendrick has the choice of attacking their opponents' weak spots. Any chances that Brady won't take are likely to fall to him.

    False Dawns

    Everton

    Niasse (5.0m, FWD)
    • Pro: Has advanced positioning and the willingness to linkup with the other forwards
    • Dealbreaker: Lacks ability to execute. Rustiness is evident. Under pressure, he's likely to lose possession, which has cost Everton thus far.
    • Buy him if: You believe he'll improve vastly, perhaps with more training/games under his belt.

      Burnley

      Wood (6.6m, FWD)
      • Pro: He is undoubtedly the most threatening player on set pieces, while he also has some assist potential in open play.
      • Dealbreaker: Used as a tactical tool rather than a direct goal threat. Home/Away tactics do not seem to alter this observation, so he's likely to score from set piece opportunities only.
      • Buy him if: You sense a weakness in West Ham or Newcastle's aerial game. Wood's headers at goal are very good; his standing jump, in particular is a very potent weapon.

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