4-3-3, the Case for Wingbacks

There comes a time when a shift in strategy looms and it is not due to the game changing drastically alone. With a combination of the introduction of 3-man defenses and FPL Towers only affording us 6 players from a Top-6 team this season, a rather creative approach to the game has surfaced as a contender to the orthodox 3-4-3/3-5-2 that has been the staple of the game for the last decade.

This post serves as a potential "momentous" marker which will hopefully, be the most accurate turning point of history as the Premier League (and all FPL enthusiasts) watch the game introduce the "new" 6.5m midfielder - the Wingback.

Introduction

We're 5 Gameweeks into the 2017/18 Fantasy Premier League game now and there are a couple of narratives that are starting to develop among FPL communities that's frequently brought up:

1. We want Lukaku, Kane and Aguero but Morata, Jesus, Firmino and a few strikers in the 5-6m bracket look like they can explode any time.
2. Eriksen, Mkhitaryan and Salah look essential but a few cheap midfielders have emerged as alternatives too. David Silva is also hugely desirable.
3. Man City and Man United are on fire, while Spurs have good fixtures up ahead. We simply cannot fit them all.

To put these mini-storylines into the big picture of FPL, firstly, I'd go with the concept of doing well in FPL in the first place:

How to Win in FPL (and watch the EPL to win it)

The Fantasy Premier League game has thrived on the concept of "actions registered" so that fans who follow the League will have something to look forward to when watching a game.

Be it goals, assists or simply a performance that can lead to goals and assists being "due", we watch the game for goals and assists because they are how an FPL manager will win the game.

Compound that with how captaincy works and we're basically playing a game that relies largely on attacking returns.

The Optimal Strategy - the Solution that created more Problems

The 3-defender strategy's dominance

What formation in FPL used to rake in the most "actions registered"? Formations with 7 attacking players, of course. In past seasons, the most popular formations hopped between 3-4-3 and 3-5-2; what defined the dominant formation was the emergence of a "cheap" attacker that shaped the side, as well as any injuries that premium players pick up across the season.

This enabler would usually have a purple patch of scoring in nearly consecutive matches over a significant period of the season. Harry Kane(2014/15), Riyad Mahrez & Jamie Vardy(2015/16) and last season's merry-go-round of "cheap" 4th midfielders were avenues of constant goals and assists that allowed FPL managers to have 6 premium attackers and a top-6 defender at the back.

Alternatives and why didn't they work

Faced with the notion of "more actions registered = winning", defenders simply didn't register as many as their comrades in midfield or attack; despite having the incentive of gaining additional points through Clean Sheets, popular defenders only surfaced due to increased goal threat.

FPL legends such as Leighton Baines, Branislav Ivanovic and most recently, Marcus Alonso were valued (and now correctly priced) according to their goal threat.

Furthermore, attackers had the benefits of gaining additional "Bonus" points whenever they fulfilled their duty, i.e. scoring or assisting a goal. Goalscorers were almost guaranteed of scoring Bonus points unless you played for Stoke or you were Diego Costa; therefore, the 4 or 5 points gained from an action registered would fetch far more returns than a defender that kept more Clean Sheets.

For example, it was virtually impossible to find a defender (at 5m) that would match the enabler's consistency. In the most recent reason, Joshua King's final 16 games (GW22-GW37) yielded 13 goals with a cost of 5.5m; omitting him for a defender from a similar team would present an impossible task, even if there were a defender that could keep Clean Sheets at a similar rate.

Thus, the notion of playing a 4-4-2 or a 4-3-3 proved impossible for seasons gone by.

The 2017/18 Tactical Landscape & its Growing Pains

Tactical Observations IRL (In real life)

The emergence of the 3-defender formation, popularised by Antonio Conte through winning the 2016/17 season, caused many managers to follow suit.

While certain managers were already familiar with a 3-man defense (Van Gaal, Mazzarri), Conte wasn't the only manager that attempted having 3 at the back - Pep Guardiola, Ronald Koeman and Marco Silva were also proponents of the system.

The influence of the 3-man defense spread as managers attempted to emulate it, if not match its shape in an attempt to beat it.

Arsene Wenger gained some momentum at the tail end of the season this way, Mauricio Pochettino matched Chelsea's 3-4-3 in order to beat them while managers as smaller clubs such as West Ham, Middlesbrough and Sunderland also emulated the system with mixed results.

The 2017/18 season sees even more managers having a hand at the 3-4-3 as Swansea and Stoke also implemented 3-man defenses; adding to the list of managers earlier puts the total teams that use a 3-man defense at precisely 9 teams out of 20, with Mourinho able to switch between 3-man and 4-man defenses at will.

FPL Shifts

The Good

The emergence of 3-man defenses are rather obvious on paper - firstly, a new breed of defender is born. The genuine wingback, classified as a Defender in FPL, operated on the flanks with the energy of a box-to-box midfielder.

Wingbacks didn't have a winger operating in a zone directly in front of them; thus they had the freedom to wreak havoc where they pleased and the biggest benefactor to this newfound role was Marcus Alonso, a centerback shunted out to fullback who used his aerial prowess to score goals just like a centerback anyway.

The 3-man system also saw several defenders, previously fullbacks, become completely absolved of their defensive responsibilities.

While some of them haven't embraced the role entirely, their attacking threat remained - Hector Bellerin, Leighton Baines, Ryan Bertrand and Ben Davies were among the benefactors of this change and are likely to be threats this way as the 2017/18 season develops.

The Bad

What happens when a team doesn't have fullbacks that are able to reap the rewards in this system? Firstly, their effectiveness becomes hampered by their default positioning.

Attacking fullbacks such as Aaron Cresswell endeavoured to receive the ball in line with their central defender, which was a hindrance to buildup play as they occupied the same space as their outside centerback.

Secondly, fullbacks that aren't used to "owning" the entire flank to themselves become extremely muted in attack because they've lost a partner-in-crime on that flank. Javier Manquillo and Seb Larsson's previous partnership at Sunderland became less fruitful, while Sam Byram didn't combine with Snodgrass on West Ham's right flank as much.

Kieran Trippier arguably didn't improve either, proving that one does not improve in output based on improvement in tactical positioning.

Lastly and most detrimentally, midfielders get converted into wingbacks, looking extremely awkward in defense while lining up as a 5-man barrier alongside their Centerbacks. Guardiola's experiment aside, Chelsea were lucky that Moses wasn't exploited as a first-time wingback as he had Azpilicueta right behind him.

Nordin Amrabat's (likely) final spell in England also ended tragically as a right-wingback even though he signed as a promising attacking midfielder; look out this season for wingers such as Stoke's Diouf taking time to adjust to the role.

The Actual FPL Landscape

2017/18 - On the Pitch

Some of last season's top 6 teams had a wingback deliver attacking returns already. Chelsea's Alonso, Arsenal's Kolasinac, Spurs' Davies & Trippier and Man City's Mendy & Walker have delivered goals or assists.

Furthermore, mid-table teams are likely to step up their game too. West Ham's Cresswell, Everton's Baines (and Martina against United), Stoke's Pieters and Swansea's Olsson/Naughton have shown signs of getting forward often enough to deliver attacking returns.

2017/18 - On Our Screens

With the facts laid out, our problem becomes more focused: Are attacking wingbacks worth investing in while the expensive players are firing?

The problem statement exists because of the 'game of alternatives' nature of FPL. If there is are 2 midfielders competing for a spot and both score consistently, you obviously pick the cheaper one; within that logical process lies the dilemma that surrounds the current FPL plethora of selections.

Here's the landscape at the moment, explicitly laid out:

• There are no cheap strikers that can match the output of the expensive ones. Lukaku, Aguero, Jesus, Morata and Kane (surely) are in a bracket of their own and are likely to hover between 6-8 points per 90 minutes. Firmino and Joselu may deliver these returns over a short spell, but that's yet to be proven.
• There are plenty of cheap midfielders that can serve as alternatives to the popular trio of creators and their compatriots. Eriksen, Mkhitaryan and Salah look essential for their 6-7 points per 90min returns, but midfielders like Gross, Ritchie and Brady have the potential to match that over a run of favourable fixtures. 
• There are no cheap defenders that can currently match the output of the popular wingbacks. After Lascelles (who's on a freakish run of 2 goals in 2 games), it would prove nigh impossible to replicate the 5-7 points per 90m shown by the new set of wingbacks in form such as Kolasinac, Ben Davies and Benjamin Mendy.

Proposals: 4-man defenses

4-3-3: The Lineup

Thought Process

Without taking bias into account, the logical, informed move to make would be:

• Sticking to expensive strikers
• Going for cheap midfielders who have a good run of fixtures
• Stick to the wingbacks 

Strikers

If we stick to the most value-for-money strikers, for simplicity's sake, we roll with:

1. Lukaku
2. Aguero
3. Jesus/Morata

Midfield

Picking the midfield is trickier because of how Mkhitaryan, Salah and Eriksen have goal and assist potential; however, to be efficient, we'll utilise Eriksen's temporary loss in form to differentiate against while keeping the other 2. Thus, our midfield would look like so:

1. Mkhitaryan
2. Salah
3. Ritchie
4. Gross
5. a 4.4m midfielder

Defense

Lastly, our true differentials - the wingbacks. 3 obvious candidates already come to mind in the form of Mendy, Kolasinac and Ben Davies, but Marcos Alonso is also in consideration, of course. For now, this proposal will use the most recently "in-form" wingbacks so Alonso is left out.

The last 2 defenders will also fulfill the wingback role from lesser teams. Swansea's Kyle Naughton has benefited with an assist in GW3 and he rotates perfectly with either Southampton or Newcastle's defense for the next 8 weeks. Thus, the list looks like this:

1. Kolasinac
2. Mendy
3. Ben Davies
4. Naughton
5. Mbemba 

Total Cost & Thoughts

FWDs - Total Cost: 33.5m

MIDs - Total Cost: 33m - 33.5m depending on when you bought them

DEFs - Total Cost: 26.5-27m depending on when you bought them.

All in all, the above lineup costs about 93-94m, which allows you 8m for Goalkeepers if you've been saving up money - perfect for a Elliot + 4.0 setup.

A typical Gameweek would field the most expensive players, benching

1. Ritchie/Gross
2. Mbemba/Naughton
3. the 4.4m midfielder

Can you imagine having that bench depth while fielding 8 players from a Top-6 team?😁

4-3-3: The Leeway

One would look at that lineup and ask "Where's Kane? Where's Eriksen or Alli?" and the truthful answer to that question lies in the region of "they're too expensive at the moment". However, the good news is that Kane is 1.0m away from a Lukaku/Aguero upgrade, while Eriksen as an option will be explored in the following section.

Where do you get this 1.0m, you ask?

Here are your answers:

1. Downgrading one of the premium wingbacks. You don't have to have 4 wingbacks; this is just the extreme end of this approach and the likes of Jones, Monreal and even Leighton Baines (eventually) will surface as alternatives at various points throughout the season.
2. Picking another wingback. I've attempted a 3-premium wingback system with this approach; it is possible to pick up alternative wingbacks such as Cresswell, Pieters or (in my wildest dreams) Daryl Janmaat when they hit a purple patch.
3. Downgrading one of the midfielders. Ritchie and Gross are the hottest cheap midfielders right now, but there's no reason to believe that midfielders such as Brady, Choupo-Moting, Steve Davis, Christian Atsu or Solly March can step up to the plate too. 

4-4-2: The Lineup

The 4-4-2 has a largely similar lineup to the 4-3-3, but with the inclusion of Christian Eriksen in midfield at the expense of a striker. This lineups suits managers who refuse to play musical chairs with the cheap midfielders, banking on 3 premium mids and a cheap one to spend their FT on each week as a differential.

Strikers

This basically ignores the "third striker" conundrum that managers face currently. After Lukaku and Aguero, managers who aim to "cover" against Kane by owning Eriksen will not be considering the option of having Firmino, Morata or Vardy as their third striker. For simplicity's sake, we roll with the cheapie who's played the most so far:

1. Lukaku
2. Aguero
3. Tammy Abraham/Joselu

Midfield

In midfield, there's no argument:

1. Mkhitaryan
2. Salah
3. Eriksen
4. Gross
5. a 4.4m midfielder

Defense

And your defense would follow the same template:

1. Kolasinac
2. Mendy
3. Ben Davies
4. Naughton
5. Mbemba 

Total Cost & Thoughts

FWDs - Total Cost: 28.5-29m depending on when you bought them

MIDs - Total Cost: 36.5-37m depending on when you bought them

DEFs - Total Cost: 26.5-27m depending on when you bought them.

The above lineup costs about 89.5-90.5m, which allows you to field David De Gea and Elliot in goal if you'd please; thus the power of going 4-4-2 is shown explicitly.

A typical Gameweek would field the most expensive players, benching

1. Abraham/Joselu
2. Mbemba/Naughton
3. the 4.4m midfielder

A 4-4-2 basically allows you to field 9 players from a Top-6 Team. Scary stuff. 

4-4-2: The Leeway

The 4-4-2 strategy's weakness is clearly evident within the third-striker slot - the most feasible striker you can upgrade to is Firmino at 8.5m. As an exercise, let's explore the possible moves to achieve this:

1. Downgrading a premium midfielder to a 5.5m-6.0m player. Not impossible, but it is an "out" if a key midfielder for Liverpool, Spurs or Man United becomes unavailable.
2. Downgrading a goalkeeper to a 4.0, while downgrading a wingback as well. Not the most popular move, but it'll certainly allow access to a Top-6 striker. 

Conclusions & Afterthoughts

The madness of the BPL this season has basically led to conventional wisdom being thrown out the window. FPL Towers has introduced the challenge of scarcity and it has led to 2 significant changes among FPL communities:

1. The template is not constantly being moulded based on who's on song the previous 2 weeks. No 2 teams will have the same premium players; even if Mkhitaryan, Eriksen and Salah are hot this week, David Silva's revival and the eventual return of Eden Hazard will make managers rework their squads once again.
2. Every bit of advantage has to be squeezed out in defense and not just attack. In previous seasons, managers survived on 4.5m priced defenders for the first 8 weeks, capitalising on their unpredictability and/or momentum; this season the Top-6 teams have hit the ground running, smashing a few smaller teams in the process.

After experimenting with a few sides, the 4-3-3 is currently what I'll be working towards. My lineup is currently as follows:

FWD: Kane, Aguero, Jesus.

MID: Mkhitaryan, Eriksen, Ritchie, Gross, Carroll

DEF: Ben Davies, Ward, Kiko Femenia, Lowe, Gamez

GKP: Pickford, Elliot

By downgrading Pickford to a 4.0 and by downgrading Kane into Lukaku, the 2.0m saved will allow me to turn Kiko Femenia into Kolasinac and Lowe into a 5.0m defender (hopefully Cresswell). 

4 transfers are all I need and it is evident that two weeks (with carefully timed hits) can swing the disadvantage around pretty quickly - the question is whether I'm willing to let go of Kane & Pickford or not.