Tuesday 31 May 2016

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 14

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 14 saw me turn on my mistakes, buying Lukaku, Ozil and makeweight Stanislas decisively.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score
Actual Score
FPL KPI
Verdict
Good
Good
Good
Deliver
Good
Bad
Decent/Good
Unlucky
Good
Good
Bad
Lucky
Good
Bad
Bad
Flop
Bad
Good
Good
Gem
Bad
Bad
Good
Unlucky
Bad
Good
Bad
Lucky
Bad
Bad
Bad
Expected

Gameweek 13

Results:




62 points with 2 hits. The 900k Gameweek rank raised me plummet to 2.2m overall.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.


Player
Minutes
Influence
Numbers
Verdict
Exp
Act
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual

De Gea
90902 pointsOutplayed2 Points3SOTCExpected
Bellerin
90
90Chance of Attk, CSPoor perfC, KP4C, 0KPExpected
Sagna
90
90Chance of Attk, CSUnluckyC, KP3C, 1KPExpected
Evans
90
90Chance of CSOutplayedDef Stats6SOTCExpected
Ozil
90
90
AttkSolid perfS, KP5/2S 2KPDeliver
KDB
90
90AttkSolid perfS, KP1/1S, 5KPDeliver
Delofeu
90
85AttkOutshoneS, KP3KPExpected
Mahrez
90
90
AttkSolid perfS, KP1/1S, 1KPExpected
Aguero
90
63
AttkOutshoneS, KP2/1SFlop
Lukaku
90
90AttkOutshoneS, KP4/2SDeliver
Vardy
90
90AttkSolid perfS, KP1/1SLucky
McCarthy
0
0
BenchedBenchedBenchedBenchedBenched
Stanislas
90
90AttkLuckyS, KP4/2S, 2KPGem
Francis
90
902 PointsOutshoneC, KP4C, 0KPExpected
Bertrand
90
90
2 PointsOutplayedC, KP1C, 1KPExpected

Verdict

Delivers: Ozil, KDB, Lukaku

Unlucky: None

Lucky: Vardy

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: De Gea, Bellerin, Sagna, Deulofeu, Mahrez, Francis, Bertrand, Expected

Flops: Aguero,

Not Playing/Injured: McCarthy, 

Gem: Stanislas

1 Line reviews of players:

  • LEI 1-1 MUN: Leicester typically counterattacking, Man United beaten by Vardy
  • BOU 3-3 EVE: Francis & co. adventurous, Deulofeu & Lukaku outshone by Barkley. Stanislas lucky
  • NOR 1-1 ARS: Ozil starred, Bellerin poor
  • WHU 1-1 WBA: Evans outplayed
  • MCI 3-1 SOU: KDB shone alongside Sterling, Aguero quiet. Sagna conceded from 1 error, Bertrand outplayed

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:
  • Running through the same process:
    • Capping against "worst defenses" brought up SUN, BOU, NEW
      • Now owning a Stoke or a CRY player, I could've capped Lukaku which was a reasonable choice. Definitely 4 points lost there.
    • Best of the rest: AVL, LEI, WHU, NOR, CHE
      • Without WAT, MUN, WBA, or TOT attackers, Ozil was the other potential captain's choice. Definitely a biased decision capping Aguero here..
    • Other considerations: 
      • Think a Lukaku or an Ozil cap would've been the best choice here. Both had form and best fixtures of the week and capping Aguero was certainly a home-game and prestige-biased mistake.

Among the kneejerk picks:
  • Bolasie, Barkley and Spurs' defense were considered this week as they delivered pretty convincingly on a pure FPL basis.
    • Barkley was hard to move in because of his price difference with Deulofeu but Bolasie was seriously considered for his fixtures. However, with Stanislas' emergence and having Lukaku as Everton coverage, I was pretty confident that KDB would outscore him in the long run.
  • Spurs' defense was considered after yet another blank from Bellerin. At the time of writing, both centerbacks were only 5.5 or less and they had a beautiful run of fixtures coming up.
Lessons I learnt from this Gameweek included:
  • Around this time of the year, goals scored is also an OK indicator for captain's choice. I just have to factor form into the picture and I should get a consistent points return over the long run.

On the previous week's picks:
  • Lukaku, Stanislas and Ozil all delivered. I think playing the All out attack chip here would've made sense, now that I think about it.... This certainly cannot be planned for, so I'm thinking that AOA should be used as an emergency rather than something to plan for.

Action Taken

Replacing players: 
  • Aguero's injury made things incredibly simple - Kane was an easy pickup, but could I become greedier? Apparently I sold Mahrez....
    • Even more surprisingly, I didn't buy Bolasie. Instead, I picked up David Silva as coverage for Man City to take advantage of their decent fixtures.

The final lineup for GW13 looked like this (1 hit)

DDG (WHM)
Sagna (stk) / Bellerin (SUN) / Bertrand (AVL)
Ozil (SUN) / KDB (stk) / Silva (stk) / Deulofeu (CRY) 
Kane (wba) / Lukaku (CRY) / Vardy (swa)
Bench: McCarthy / Stanislas / Francis / Evans

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