Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 3

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 2 is a post-mortem of the results in order to utilise the 2FT available pre-GW3.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 3

Results:

30 Points. 3.0m rank, down to 2.9m OR. I kept Wilson on the bench for his 17 pointer.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Pantilimon	90	90	Chance of CS + Saves	Solid Perf	>3 Saves	8	Deliver
Ivanovic	90	90	CS, Attk	Poor perf	CS at least	6 SOTC	Flop
Jenkinson	90	78	Attk	Poor perf	C	RED CARD	Flop
Cedric	90	90	Chance of CS	Solid perf	Def Stats	Decent CBI, 3KP	Deliver
Sanchez	90	90	Attk	Unlucky	S	3/0S	Unlucky
Westwood	90	90	Chance of Attk	Wasn't the Star	C, KP	6C, 5KP	Unlucky
Ozil	90	82	Attk	Outplayed	KP	3KP	Expected
Silva	90	89	Attk	Wasn't the Star	KP	3/1S,3KP	Unlucky
B. Johnson	90	14	Chance of Attk	Negligible	S	1/0S, 1KP	Flop
Aguero	80	90	Attk	Wasn't the Star	S	2/2S	Unlucky
Sakho	90	72	Attk	Unlucky	S	2/1S	Expected
Hennessey	0	0	Bench	Benched	Benched	Benched	Flop
Wilson	90	90	Chance of Attk	3 goals	S		Gem
Mings	0	0	Bench	Benched	Benched	Benched	Flop
Wollscheid	0	0	Bench	Benched	Benched	Benched	Flop

Verdict

Delivers: Cedric, Pantilimon

Unlucky: Sanchez, Westwood, Silva, Aguero

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed: Ozil, Sakho,

Flops: Ivanovic, B. Johnson, Jenkinson

Not Playing/Injured: Hennessey, Mings, Wollscheid

Gem: Wilson

1 Line reviews of players:

• CRY/AVL: Agbonlahor's wastefulness cost Westwood points
• WBA/CHE: Poor perf from Ivan, Fab-Matic exposing Chelsea defensively
• WHU/BOU: Sakho Unlucky, Jenkinson horrendous and Wilson clinical
• EVE/MCI: Silva shines again, but not in the points. Aguero not the star.
• ARS/LIV: Disallowed goal could've changed the game. Unlucky from both players.
• WAT/SOU: Southampton adjust and Cedric's CS is deserved.
• SUN/SWA: Superstar performance from Pantilimon

Afterthoughts

With 3 games in, lots of options were eliminated, leaving only a handful of players in the potential "flop replacement" pool:

• Redmond (2G, 1A in 3)
• Yaya (2G, 2A in 3)
• Mahrez (4G in 3)

3 midfielders on the goalscorers' list at least gave me plenty of options to replace the ailing B.Johnson, but I had more pressing issues - Ivanovic and Jenkinson were much bigger flops as I could at the very least bench BJ.

In the defender department, 2 things stood out:

• Man United, Liverpool and Man City all kept 3 Clean Sheets in 3. 
• No defender displayed a consistent attacking prowess over the first 3 games bar the goalscoring defenders (Martin, Kompany).

With 3 flops and 3 injuries, perhaps 2 transfers weren't enough to save the squad for next week as Mings and Wollscheid's values continued to drop. The Wildcard was pulled out.

Action Taken

Replaced flops: 

• Cheap Defenders Mings & Wollscheid were replaced by S. Taylor (NEW) and Olsson (WBA). S.Taylor I presume was a placeholder for a "3 big def" strategy while I bought Olsson to account for injuries to the lineup. He also had a stellar run from GW4 onwards.
• BJ was replaced with Jonjo Shelvey instead of Mahrez or Redmond. 
• I should curb this bad habit next season of having a "risque" 4th midfielder when running a cheap-5th strategy; the risky punt for next season should definitely be on either defense (with attacking potential) or a cheap attacker. 
• Shelvey's stats for Swansea were basically showing the same behaviour as Westwood's - lots of Key Passes (and the occasional shot), but no FPL points yet. Preferred that over the goalscoring exploits of Mahrez.
• The frequently outplayed defense: As for Pantilimon, Cedric, Ivanovic and Jenkinson, I attempted to go the "cheap elite" route by drafting in Azpi, Sagna and Lovren for their "cheapest price" status. 
• Azpi I expected would be at least value for money with the prediction of Chelsea to improve in mind, while Sagna's spot was secured with a starting spot (and 3 CS) for the first 3 games. 
• I also banked on Lovren's 3CS early season form. This was a significant upgrade from Ivanovic, Jenkinson and Cedric (who I still believe couldn't get starts 100%), so I was convinced this decision would do OK.
• I believed that I was lucky to nab as many points as I did with Pantilimon. I wasn't feeling safe with owning Hart or Mignolet going into GW4 - Romero's 3 CS in 3 therefore offered the best solution considering DDG's contract situation.
• The frequently outplayed attack: With only Sakho to replace, I took a punt in my "third midfield" slot by converting Ozil into Pedro, based off his GW3 form, nabbing a goal and an assist. 
• Pedro's points for me marked the start of Chelsea's recovery at least; with Sanchez as Arsenal cover, I was OK to spread my bets in the "elite midfield" category.
• In attack, I was convinced that I could do better than Sakho. Diouf's 2 goals in 3 games presented himself as the most value for money striker in the 6m bracket; apart from Gomis, there really wasn't many more options.

The final lineup looked like this:

Romero

Sagna / Azpi / Lovren

Sanchez / Silva / Pedro / Shelvey (playing for Swansea still)

Aguero / Diouf / Wilson

Bench: McCarthy / Westwood / Olsson / S. Taylor