Monday 16 May 2016

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 0

With the season at a close, it is time to do a post-mortem of the season so that has been absolutely disastrous. Lessons have to be learnt so it is time to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 0 talks about the final team leading up to GW1 of 2015/16 and any expectations of the season.
From GW1 onwards, assessment of the gameweeks of the season will go in this format:

Expectations: Based on fixtures, some thoughts on strategy will be given. Transfer action is also taken into account.

Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score
Actual Score
Stats
Verdict
Good
Good
Good
Deliver
Good
Bad
Good
Unlucky
Good
Good
Bad
Lucky
Good
Bad
Bad
Flop
Bad
Good
Good
Gem
Bad
Bad
Good
Unlucky
Bad
Good
Bad
Lucky
Bad
Bad
Bad
Expected

Actions Taken: The action taken would be taken into analysis.

Gameweek 0: Expectations:


As usual, I open seasons with having a "no transfer policy" used between Gameweeks 1 and 2 in mind. Strategy goes as the following:
  • Home Game analysis: In terms of Big vs. Small home game advantage, only CHE v SWA was the easy "captain banker". ARS/WHU, EVE/WAT and NEW/SOU were other considerations, but CHE/SWA was the standout fixture.
  • Gk: Pantilimon was another standout GK with great save potential and decent fixtures to gain points from. CS was never really expected but a bonus considering their fixtures against relatively wasteful sides in 2014/15 (NOR, SWA, TOT, WHU)
  • Defs: Mings was supposed to be rotated with Wollscheid I believe, while Ivanovic and Cedric were permanent fixtures due to Southampton's easy run (none of the big teams until GW6). Fully expected Jenkinson to have some "value" games due to the right-back spot for West Ham being a toss-up and that West Ham's home fixtures were lovely (LEI, BOU, NEW, NOR).
  • Mid:As a projection, Chelsea's schedule of SWA, mci, wba, CRY should at least yield SOME results before the Transfer window closes. This was the reason of having Fabregas & Hazard in the team so that the less-in-form midfielder could be downgraded to upgrade the cheap forwards.
  • Mid: Man City, as expected to be Chelsea's nearest title challengers, also had a decent fixture list bar Chelsea at home in Gameweek 2. David Silva was a "Man City long term" pick, at least until Aguero recovered from injury.
  • Mid: Ozil was preferred over Sanchez as the Chilean wasn't fit, IIRC. Arsenal were also another side who had decent fixtures, but not having prices as Value for Money as SOU or WHU, so they were passed over for now. 
  • Mid: Bradley Johnson was another tactical lynchpin of Norwich's that helped them go up. At 5.5m he was perceived as VFM compared to any of the other promoted sides bar Ritchie who was 6.0m.
  • Fwd: Callum Wilson was the other promoted attacker banked on. Pelle's choice reasoning was the same as Cedric's while Sakho was a "differential attacker" to be played from GW2 onwards.
Projection:

Chelsea, Everton and Arsenal to win comfortably, with Chelsea and City running riot. Bournemouth & Norwich were expected to score & concede as home bankers, while Southampton & Liverpool were also BTTS games. LEI/SUN and MUN/TOT unpredictable. 




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