Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 12

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 12, just before yet another international break, saw an extremely low scoring gameweek which made the actual goalscorers have a HUGE influence on proceedings... 
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 12

Results:

53 Points. the 2.1m Gameweek rank took me didn't move me places, but I potentially lost out on a huge leap.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
De Gea	90	90	CS	Solid perf	CS	0 SOTC	Deliver
Sagna	90	90	CS, Chance of Attk	Untroubled	CS	0 SOTC, 3C	Deliver
Bertrand	90	90	CS, Chance of Attk	Solid perf	CS	3C	Deliver
Francis	90	90	Chance of Attk	Quiet	C, KP	0 KP	Flop
Sanchez	90	90	Attk	Affted by Strat	KP, S	1/1S, 1KP	Flop
KDB	90	90	Attk	Active	KP, S	0/0S, 3KP	Flop
Ayew	90	90	Chance of Attk	Quiet	KP, S	0/0S	Flop
Mahrez	90	83	Attk	Solid perf	KP, S	2/1S, 1KP	Outshone
Bony	90	24	Attk	Active	S	Injured	Injured
Pelle	90	90	Attk	Outplayed	S	1/0S	Outplayed
Vardy	90	90	Attk	Solid perf	S	3/2S	Deliver
McCarthy	0	0	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched
Sissoko	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outshone	KP, S	0/0S, 0 KP	Flop
Bellerin	90	0	Chance of Attk	Benched	C, KP	Benched	Benched
Evans	90	90	Outplayed	Outplayed	2 Points	3 SOTC	Expected

Verdict

Delivers: De Gea, Sagna, Bertrand, Vardy

Unlucky: None

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Mahrez, Pelle, Evans

Flops: Sanchez, KDB, Francis, Ayew

Not Playing/Injured: McCarthy, Bellerin, Bony

Gem: None

1 Line reviews of players:

• BOU 0-1 NEW: Francis at CB
• SUN 0-1 SOU: Pelle outplayed, Bertrand not tested
• NOR 1-0 SWA: Whole team outplayed
• LEI 2-1 WAT: Vardy and Mahrez influential once again
• MUN 2-0 WBA: DDG limited WBA chances well
• ARS 1-1 TOT: Had to win ugly
• AVL 0-0 MCI: MCI lack of urgeny, too safe, Sagna never troubled

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:

• Running through the same process after 8 games:
• Capping against "worst defenses" brought up SUN, BOU, NOR, CHE, NEW
• BOU vs. NEW eliminated them both
• SWA and NEW's form kept me away from capping Ayew, despite Ayew getting 2 in 2
• Didn't own STK
• This left SUN, which I duly took advantage of by capping Pelle. 
• Best of the rest: AVL, LEI
• Capping Bony the first time was a nightmare; I didn't dare cap KDB either for some strange reason.
• Other considerations: 
• Vardy the form cap probably should've taken up more of my attention, given his track record. It just goes to show that unless you own Aguero, Mr. Consistent should really be capped week in week out, regardless of opposition.

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Kane and Lukaku again. Sigh. At least the Bony move was made easy.
• Butland quietly wrapped up 4 CS in 5. There was no way I would've picked him up against Chelsea though.
• Ozil's phenomenal return of 5 in 5 probably hurt me the most. a good 500k managers brought him in while Sanchez continued to flounder and it goes to show that sensitivity to elite attacking focus is very important.

Lessons I learnt from this Gameweek included:

• Admit mistakes early and rectify them. My decision in not replacing Bony straight away (with Lukaku or Ighalo) dearly cost me. 
• Be decisive. I was very decisive about the Bertrand and De Gea pickups. Things actually made sense and I didn't feel that either pick was a risk; firm transfers like these are what I need to make more next season.
• Ayew's time to shine was now and they duly fell flat. Was I ignoring a crucial indicator? Maybe I didn't account for the fact that Swansea couldn't win away from home (1/2/2 record); maybe I gave Ayew the benefit of the doubt TOO MUCH after getting off the hook for two weeks out of 3.
• The Sanchez to Ozil transfer, dubbed as "sideways" by myself despite multiple turgid reviews should've been done decisively. Performance that were ACTUALLY poor is certainly a good reason to drop Sanchez, and I should've done it quickly and swiftly.

On the previous week's picks:

• Bertrand & De Gea:
• I felt that "the timing was right" was the feeling I got when bringing these two players in. 
• Not replacing Sanchez, Sissoko or Ayew:
• Could I have foreseen a return for their replacements? I could've done Sanchez to Ozil, but it was a home game against Spurs...
• Could I have replaced Ayew? Jumping on the Everton bandwagon early wouldn't have earnt me much; Coutinho was under consideration but the MCI fixture straight after woul've definitely warded me away.

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• Bony and Sanchez had to go. So did Ayew. Aguero's timely return was good news though - how was I to fit Aguero back into the picture?
• Bony with Aguero aside,
• Ayew was dropped to bring Delofeu in, who also delivered in 2 of Everton's 2 good fixtures so far. 
• Pelle was also downgraded to Ayoze. Risky punt, this.

The final lineup for GW13 looked like this (2 hits)

DDG (wat)

Francis (swa) / Bellerin (wba) Bertrand (STK)

Sanchez(wba) / KDB (LIV) / Mahrez (new) / Deulofeu (AVL) 

Aguero (LIV) / Ayoze (LEI) / Vardy (new)

Bench: McCarthy / Sissoko / Sagna / Evans