Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 5

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 5 was the first gameweek after the international break as well as the close of the summer transfer window.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 5

Results:

27 Points. 3million rank, dropped to 2.9m OR. Silva was sold for Sterling who was also injured; Westwood came off the bench as a result.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Romero	90	0	Save Points	Benched	>3 Saves	Benched	Flop
Sagna	90	90	Chance of CS	Active	Def Stats	2 SOTC	Deliver
Azpilicueta	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C, KP	1C, 0 KP	Flop
Olsson	90	5	Chance of CS	Benched	Def Stats	Benched	Benched
Sanchez	90	83	Attk	Outplayed	KP, S	1KP, 2/8S	Unlucky
Sterling	90	0	Chance of Attk	Injured	KP, S	Injured	Injured
Pedro	90	69	Attk	Outplayed	KP, S	2/0S, 0KP	Flop
Shelvey	90	90	Chance of Attk	One off poor perf	KP, C	3/1S	Unlucky
Aguero	90	24	Attk	Injured	S	Injured	injured
Gomis	90	90	Attk	One off poor perf	S	2/2S	Unlucky
Wilson	90	90	Attk	poor perf	S	2/1S	Expected
McCarthy	90	90	>3 Saves	Solid Perf	Saves	6 Saves	Gem
Westwood	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outshone	KP, C	2KP	Expected
Lovren	90	90	Def Stats	Outplayed	Def Stats	3SOTC	Expected
S. Taylor	90	0	Bench	Benched	Def Stats	Benched	Flop

Verdict

Delivers: Sagna

Unlucky: Sanchez, Shelvey, Gomis

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Pedro, Westwood, Lovren

Flops: Azpi, Pedro

Not Playing/Injured: Aguero, Romero, Aguero, Sterling, S. Taylor

Gem: McCarthy

1 Line reviews of players:

• EVE/CHE: Azpi exposed by Chelsea high press
• ARS/STK: Sanchez denied by Butland
• WAT/SWA: Watford perform extremely well to contain Swansea
• CRY/MCI: Palace def undone by brilliance, Aguero injured early, Sagna active
• WBA/SOU: Olsson replaced by Evans' debut
• AVL/LEI: Westwood outshone
• NOR/BOU: Wilson poor without Gradel
• MUN/LIV: Outplayed

Afterthoughts

Captaincy: Aguero vs. Crystal Palace I felt could only be matched by an Arsenal cap or perhaps an outlandish Mahrez/Vardy cap, who had more stable scores over 4 weeks. In the end, no mainstream cap really delivered so the damage this week didn't come from captaincy.

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Barkley's 2 assists were noted for GW8's beautiful fixture run. 
• Martial's sensational game killing goal against Liverpool was food for thought, but there was no way he could justify being a starter at that point.
• Mahrez was also noted, but anti-kneejerk bias prevented me from considering him and instead I looked at Jamie Vardy's stats in more detail.
• Payet's influence was also an oversight, as I didn't think he could step up from Ligue 1 knowing about his background from Lille before moving to Marseille.

This Gameweek was certainly a lesson to tell me that Wildcarding works best AFTER an international break, not during or before. 

• Two weeks of risks completely wrecked my squad, labelling Olsson, Azpi, Sterling and Pedro as massive underperformers despite getting some short term gains. 
• Truly, post-Gameweek 5 is one of the best periods to evaluate "settled squads" after a transfer window. Lesson learnt.

On the Wildcard picks:

•  I felt that my Shelvey, Pedro and Gomis picks from the Wildcard onwards were pretty justified. Attacking form I feel only truly becomes consistent for the "magical" players and I shouldn't bank on hitting them immediately; in that sense, I should be investing Free Transfers on them until I nail the "magic" player, then focus on other aspects.
• Completely ignoring Romero, Lovren and Chelsea's form in general should have met more decisive action. Of course, holding onto Jenkinson and Mings pre-Wildcard was equally suicidal; if I were to save the Wildcard, however, I think that addressing the injuries and suspensions would've led be to picking up a WBA player either way, while I could've given Sakho benefit of the doubt as well.

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• With Aguero and Sterling's injuries fortunately being short term, I decided to address three flops immediately - Azpi, Shelvey (who was starting to frustrate me despite being unlucky) and Pedro. Olsson and Taylor could at least be benched, while McCarthy I decided to bank on while sourcing a Romero replacement.
• Pedro was switched to Swansea's Ayew instead of another popular pick, Payet. Mainly to free up funds for the Romero/Olsson/S. Taylor upgrade, I felt that Swansea were likely to continue their scoring run despite blanking against Watford. 
• Azpi to Francis was a curious one. Perhaps influenced by my own BPS article at the time, Francis had SUN, stk, WAT as his schedule which attracted my attention; his assist against Norwich probably was the indicator that pushed me over the edge.

Chasing form:

• Shelvey was switched to Mahrez. I think the "Ramsey/Michu" memory kicked in here and I decided to eat humble pie against my own decision, despite preferring Vardy at that stage of the competition.

The final lineup looked like this (with 2 hits)

McCarthy

Sagna / Lovren / Francis

Sanchez / Sterling / Mahrez / Ayew 

Aguero / Gomis / Wilson

Bench: Romero / Westwood / Olsson / S. Taylor