Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 11

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 11 served as the "biggest mistake of my life" where I took the Sunderland win over Newcastle too literally, deterring me from picking Lukaku up.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 11

Results:

53 Points. the 2.1m Gameweek rank took me didn't move me places, but I potentially lost out on a huge leap.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Myhill	90	90	Chance of CS	Outplayed	>3 Saves	5 SOTC	Expected
Sagna	90	90	Chance of CS, Attk	Hart error	CS, C	3 SOTC	Unlucky
Evans	90	90	Chance of CS	Outplayed	Def Stats	5 SOTC	Expected
Bellerin	90	90	Chance of CS	Solid perf	Chance of CS, Attk	3C, 0KP	Expected
Sanchez	90	90	Attk	Jaded	S, KP	4/0S, 3KP	Flop
KDB	90	72	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	1/0S, 4KP	Expected
Sissoko	90	90	Chance of Attk	Active	S, KP	2/2S, 1KP	Expected
Mahrez	90	90	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	4/2S, 1KP	Deliver
Bony	90	90	Attk	Active but poor	S	9/1S, 1KP	Unlucky
Pelle	90	90	Attk	Solid perf	S	3/1S	Deliver
Vardy	90	90	Attk	Solid perf	S	4/2 S	Deliver
McCarthy	0	0	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched
Ayew	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	S, KP	0/0S 0 KP	Expected
Richards	90	0	Chance of CS	Outplayed	Def Stats	Benched	Benched
Francis	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C	2 SOTC	Expected

Verdict

Delivers: Mahrez, Pelle, Vardy

Unlucky: Bony, Sagna

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Myhill, Evans, Bellerin, KDB, Sissoko, Ayew, Francis

Flops: Sanchez

Not Playing/Injured: Richards, McCarthy

Gem: None

1 Line reviews of players:

• SWA 0-3 ARS: Ayew quiet, Sanchez too. Bellerin outshone
• NEW 0-0 STK: NEW do well but cannot convert chances
• WBA 2-3 LEI: WBA threatened by LEI throughout.
• MCI 2-1 NOR: Hart gifted CS away, Bony active but poor. KDB's set piece delivers
• SOU 2-0 BOU: Soton wingplay delivers. BOU shifted defense around and Francis suffered

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:

• Running through the same process after 8 games:
• Capping against "worst defenses" brought up Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich
• Capping Stoke was out of the question.
• 50/50 between a stuttering MCI and an ultra safe SOU was a tough choice. KDB, Bony and Pelle were all decent candidates indeed. Still, the fact that I had all 3 at least bode good things.
• Best of the rest: SUN, CHE, AVL, LEI. 
• Didn't own a LIV, EVE, TOT or WBA attacker.
• Other considerations: 
• Vardy's "Form cap" option was initially the choice and the puzzle was basically who I wanted to beat him with. Too many options basically turned my head towards the "safer" anti-Norwich cap.

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Kane! Lukaku! Ighalo! What a bad week. Bony's 9 shots made it even more depressing.
• Coutinho's presence was interesting, but once again I had no one to drop. Perhaps Sanchez's poor form was the only excuse I had. 
• 3CS in a row for DDG made it very tempting to switch Myhill out. Fixtures flipped incredibly well here and I was very very worried indeed.

Lessons I thought about this Gameweek included:

• Never chasing unknown potential, especially when the quality is a downgrade from AGUERO. Bony shouldn't have been thought about - no question.
• STICK TO THE PLAN. I planned for Lukaku in and I didn't follow through. 
• The Sissoko transfer all those weeks back doesn't seem like it's paid off at all. Perhaps instead of going for the "clever" move, I should've just sent Ayew out instead of trying to bench him.

On the previous week's picks:

• Bony:
• He was brought in for a Norwich anti-cap, so the greedy plan failed. Onwards to next week.

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• Sanchez being the only flop made me worry. There were A LOT of firing strikers out there that were outscoring mine. Sissoko and Ayew's future outlook didn't look too good either while I needed to do something about the double WBA def, as well as Richards' no show.
• First things' first. Myhill to De Gea. Straightforward decision.
• Once again, my "benefit of the doubt" nature gave Bony, Ayew and Sissoko second chances. I decided to gauge their output for one more week, since the Int break was rolling around.
• Richards to Bertrand was made in anticipation of the Sunderland game, as well as a 6 week plan involving benching Evans until fixtures cleared up. A move suited for the long term without sacrificing Evans.

The final lineup for GW11 looked like this (1 hit)

DDG (WBA)

Sagna (avl) / Bertrand (sun) / Francis (NEW)

Sanchez(TOT) / KDB (avl) / Ayew (nor) / Mahrez (WAT)

Pelle (sun) / Bony (avl) / Vardy (WAT)

Bench: McCarthy / Sissoko / Evans / Bellerin