Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 7

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 7 had some epic clashes at the top of the table that produced some horrid results for me.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 7

Results:

35 points with 1 hit. With a Gameweek rank of 2.8m, I plunged to the depths of 3m OR where only dead teams existed.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Myhill	90	90	Sv, Chance of CS	Concede 3	Saves	4SOTC, 3Goals	Outplayed
Sagna	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C, KP	2C, 2KP	Unlucky
Evans	90	90	Chance of CS	Outplayed	Def Stats	Avg. CBI	Outplayed
Francis	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C, KP	4C, 1KP	Expected
Sanchez	90	90	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	7/3S, 3KP	Deliver
Sterling	90	90	Attk	Active	S, KP	3/2S, 4KP	Unlucky
Ayew	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	S, KP	2/1S, 1KP	Flop
Mahrez	90	90	Attk	Outshone	S, KP	4/1S, 3KP	Unlucky
Aguero	90	85	Attk	Outplayed	S	5/1S	Unlucky
Gomis	90	45	Chance of Attk	Quiet	S	0 all stats	Flop
Wilson	90	16	Attk	Injured	S	injured	Injured
McCarthy	90	0	saves	Benched	Saves	Benched	Flop
Westwood	90	90	Chance of Attk	Quiet	C, KP	1KP, 1C	Flop
Lovren	0	0	Bench	Benched	Bench	Benched	Flop
S. Taylor	0	0	Bench	Benched	Bench	Benched	Flop

Verdict

Delivers: Sanchez

Unlucky: Sagna, Sterling, Mahrez, Aguero

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Myhill, Evans, Francis

Flops: Ayew, Gomis, Westwood

Not Playing/Injured: Wilson, Lovren, S. Taylor, McCarthy

Gem: Sagna

1 Line reviews of players:

• SOU 3-1 SWA: Gomis and Ayew OoP, but quiet away from home
• LEI 2-5 ARS: Mahrez quiet, Sanchez huge
• TOT 4-1 MCI: Aguero and Sterling outplayed by Spurs deep block, Sagna quiet
• WBA 2-3 EVE: WBA pushed for the win, got punished
• STK 2-1 BOU: Wilson twisted his knee, wingers more involved than Francis

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:

• So I went with the "no brain" cap of Aguero this week and there weren't many options based on research, in all honesty:
• Capping against "worst defenses" brought up Sunderland, Chelsea and Norwich (top 3)
• Without a Man United, Newcastle or West Ham player, I couldn't use this method.
• Best of the rest: Leicester, Bournemouth, Villa, Stoke & Newcastle were tied on 9 goals conceded each. 
• With Stoke playing Bournemouth and not owning a LIV or CHE player, only ARS's Sanchez remained as the "defense whipping" captain.
• Going with form, the top 3 scoring sides (MCI, WHM, MCI) only coughed up Sterling or Aguero as a captain candidate. 
• Hence, the decision was 50/50 between Aguero and Sanchez - Sanchez should definitely have been picked here, whichever way you look at things.
• Other considerations: 
• For another hit last week, I could've grabbed Mata or Payet (for Sterling/Ayew) to cap against Sunderland or Norwich could have been the play here. I should consider hitting for a captain candidate if I didn't have a clear cut one in the immediate future.

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Jamie Vardy's brace against Arsenal was considered an easy option to replace Wilson with, considering the long term injury. With Martial picking up an assist, form was recognised but poor fixtures were a massive deterrent. Likewise for Pelle.
• Mane scored while Payet picked up another assist and two bonus points. At this point, both midfielders were considered, but replacing Wilson was top priority - the cap Payet vs. Sunderland option wasn't considered because of MCI's home game against Newcastle up next.
• Lukaku was seriously considered. He was meant to be brought in after the international break, but the performance against West Brom made it very tempting to replace Gomis with the Belgian for a hit.

This Gameweek, besides the Captain's call, I also learnt that when you've made research with your picks, it's just best to hold them for 6 weeks unless they're injured, or you're buying the tactical lynchpin of their respective sides.

• Case in point: Over 7 Gameweeks, I owned 6 different forwards. Pelle, Sakho, Wilson started the season.
• Pelle
• Pelle was brought in to take advantage of their 6-8 week fantastic run of fixtures. Being a victim of the Aguero transfer in, he scored 3 Goals and 3 Assists in the next 5 compared to Aguero's 1 Assist. 
• Was I sore about the Aguero decision at this point? Aguero had every chance to score against Everton, Watford, Crystal Palace and West Ham. 
• Sakho 
• Sacrificed during the Wildcard to chase an in-form Diouf and then Gomis later on. 
• After Sakho was sold in GW3 with 1 assist to his name, he sored 3 goals and 2 assists in the next 4 games
• Diouf lost his spot against Leicester and scored against Bournemouth as a sub, which was OK. 
• Gomis, however, blanked completely
• The real lesson here is that I have to evaluate my decision on letting go of a particular attacker before deciding to "chase form". 
• While I had reason to chase Gomis and Diouf, I had no reason to ditch Sakho - West Ham were attacking well with Sakho registering a few Unlucky marks in reviews.
• Wilson
• The only forward to live through it all, he came good but I benched him for his monster haul over 1 fundamental mistake. 
• Lesson here? Stick with a good thing, despite the cliche of "the grass is greener on the other side".
• Second case - the midfielders. Silva morphed into Sterling during GW4, Ozil was sacrified for Pedro/Ayew, BJ/Shelvey turned into Mahrez and Hazard turned into Sanchez.
• Silva -> Sterling
• I feel that this transfer was "forced" into a Man City midfielder because of how many goals City had scored. Sterling was the next best thing (showing form too) while none of the other elite midfielders showed enough promise besides Mata.
• Lesson here? Eat the humble pie, especially if you're considering capping them. While City played Everton or Spurs, I could've used a Mata or Payet cap.
• Ozil -> Pedro/Ayew
• I chased form with this one yet again. There was reason to let Ozil go as he applied for compassionate leave, I believe; without a real Arsenal candidate stepping up, chasing a Chelsea revival was reasonable at first.
• Chasing Ayew, however, was a massive oversight. This could've been Mata/Payet too - this was certainly me being too clever, ignoring my own Mata advice and instead pursuing Ayew for the "out of position" potential.
• Lesson here: For the differential 3rd midfielder pick, trust your homework.
• BJ/Shelvey -> Mahrez
• The form Mahrez showed here was certainly similar to Ayew's - perhaps this was the reason I decided to pick both up in the same week. 
• This was my second week holding him after all; I don't believe any other midfielder had similar consistency to rival Ayew at that price bracket, so I don't regret this decision, in all honesty.
• Hazard -> Sanchez
• It took him 5 games to repay my faith; after the hattrick, his average shot up from 3 points per game (11 in 4) to 6 points per game (31 in 5), which perhaps was closer to his actual expected points.
• Considering the lack of alternatives, I do not regret selling Hazard 100%, despite the Belgian racking up a goal and 2 assists (which equates to 24 points in 5 games).

On the previous week's picks:

• Banking on two West Brom defenders:
• At home against Everton who was hot and cold, it was always a gamble. Considering the goalkeeping and defender situation I had, both transfers were still necessary after viewing everything in hindsight. 
• With only 2CS in GW7, there was no "obvious" keeper or defender to pick out for that week itself.
• I've preached enough about ignoring Mane, Mata and Payet. Perhaps I should've been braver with ONE of the 50/50 calls, acknowledging that Sterling was a failed punt. 

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• Wilson's injury was top priority. In terms of flops, I was also worried about Gomis not completing the game; I also still had 2 defenders floundering on the bench to deal with. I replaced all of them.
• Wilson to Vardy was the most straightforward of swaps.
• Gomis had a few candidates. I didn't want to crawl back to Sakho or Diouf; instead, I shot for the stars and bought Sturridge instead. 
• I funded the Sturridge move by replacing Lovren with Richards. This was certainly another one of those "cheap punts" you'd field in emergencies only as I already had Evans, Francis and Sagna in tow.

Chasing form:

• From the attackers, Mane, Mata and Payet were labelled "the ship has sailed" for me. Evertonian players were the next on the attacking list, to be picked up after the international break.

The final lineup for GW8 looked like this (with 2 hits)

Myhill (cry)

Sagna (NEW) / Evans(cry) / Francis (WAT)

Sanchez(MUN) / Sterling(NEW) / Mahrez(nor) / Ayew(TOT) 

Aguero(NEW) / Sturridge(eve) / Vardy (nor)

Bench: McCarthy / Westwood / Richards / S. Taylor