Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 9

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 9 just after the international break marked the beginning of the period Aguero-less - what would life turn out to be?
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 9

Results:

68 with 2 hits. Gameweek rank 510k., moving me from 2.2m to 1.9m overall, despite Sturridge's no show, replaced by Westwood.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Myhill	90	90	CS	Solid perf	CS	2SOTC	Deliver
Sagna	90	90	Chance of CS & Attk	Def failed, Sagna quiet	C, KP	1C, 0KP	Expected
Evans	90	90	CS	Solid perf	CS	2SOTC	Deliver
Bellerin	90	90	Chance of CS, Attk	Solid perf	C, KP	6C, 1KP	Deliver
Sanchez	90	79	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	4KP, 4/2S	Deliver
KDB	90	61	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	3/2S, 2KP	Deliver
Ayew	90	79	Chance of Attk	Quiet	S, KP	0/0S, 1KP	Flop
Mahrez	90	45	Attk	Supersub	S, KP	2/0S, 3KP	Gem
Sturridge	90	0	Attk	Injured	S, KP	Injured	Injured
Pelle	90	90	Attk	OK perf	S	4/0S	Unlucky
Vardy	90	90	Attk	Active	S	10/4S	Deliver
McCarthy	0	0	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched
Westwood	90	90	Chance of Attk	Quiet	C, KP	1/0S, 1KP	Expected
Richards	90	90	2 points	Outplayed	2 Points	3SOTC	Expected
Francis	90	90	2 points	Outplayed	2 Points	3C	Expected

Verdict

Delivers: Myhill, Evans, Bellerin, Sanchez, KDB, Vardy

Unlucky: Pelle

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Sagna, Westwood, Richards, Francis

Flops: Ayew

Not Playing/Injured: Sturridge, McCarthy

Gem: Mahrez

1 Line reviews of players:

• SOU 2-2 LEI: Pelle unlucky, Mahrez supersub, Vardy still the tactical focus
• CHE 2-0 AVL: Villa sucked
• WBA 1-0 SUN: Evans & Myhill solid
• WAT 0-3 ARS: Sanchez productive, Bellerin untroubled
• MCI 5-1 BOU: Sagna quiet after being shifted to the left, Francis outplayed, KDB solid
• SWA 0-1 STK: Ayew muted and shut out

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:

• Running through the same process after 8 games:
• Capping against "worst defenses" brought up Sunderland, Newcastle and Chelsea (top 3)
• This method didn't work this week as WBA, NOR and AVL didn't have worthy caps.
• Best of the rest: LEI, NOR, BOU, and AVL were also up there in terms of goals conceded. 
• SOU and MCI were options, while I didn't own CHE or NEW players. Among my options, KDB still stood out more than Pelle as the tactical fulcrum of the side without Aguero.
• Other considerations: 
• Could I have capped Vardy?Perhaps scoring goals 5 games in a row was a signal of him not likely to score in the 6th; foolish thinking indeed and I paid the price for it.

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Wijnaldum's 4 goal salvo was very juicy as it was followed with 4 good fixtures. Sturridge was the focus on concern, however and Ayoze looked equally attractive.
• 2 big scores in a row for Ozil got me figuring out means to engineer a move back in for the German playmaker. Sacrificing Sturridge was an easy way out, but finding a cheap striker to replace him made Ayoze stand out even more.
• Bony was considered as an option to replace Sturridge. I did wonder how long he would last though...

Although the Gameweek turned out really well, I remember being in a state of panic, notably on the Sturridge problem.

• Lukaku wasn't ready as he still had to clear Arsenal
• Mahrez's minutes started to concern me 
• Ayew and Westwood had to be dealt with

I also remember attempting to be "a little bit clever" here by attempting to delay the Sturridge replacement by a week intentionally; this allowed me to replace Ayew or Westwood, as I remember generating some cash with from the Aguero sale.

On the previous week's picks:

• De Bruyne:
• Rewarded me, but in the harshest way. Did I have to sell Sterling to get De Bruyne? Maybe, maybe not. However, Sterling was showing incredibly poor performances... I do wonder if I could've held both KDB and Sterling for the Bournemouth game
• Pelle:
• Was a sensible move, especially since now I have to sell Sturridge to buy Lukaku. 
• Bellerin: 
• Took the opportunity and I was very glad it rewarded me immediately. Without this move, I would've played Richards or Francis *shudders*

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• Interestingly enough, I gave Mahrez and Ayew the benefit of the doubt. Instead, I brought a Newcastle asset in - Sissoko. sun, STK, bou, LEI and cry was a fixture list too hard to miss, and I needed long term options. I couldn't afford Wijnaldum and there weren't many more cheap alternatives.

The final lineup for GW10 looked like this:

Myhill (nor)

Richards (SWA) / Evans (nor) / Bellerin (EVE)

Sanchez(EVE) / KDB (mun) / Mahrez(CRY) / Ayew(avl) 

Pelle (liv) / Sturridge(SOU) / Vardy (CRY)

Bench: McCarthy / Sissoko / Francis / Sagna