Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 10

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 10 came with big fixtures think and fast, where ARS/EVE, MUN/MCI and WHU/CHE all played into everyone's thoughts.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 10

Results:

50 points. Gameweek rank 780k., moved from 1.9m to 1.7m.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Myhill	90	90	CS	Solid perf	CS	3SOTC	Deliver
Richards	90	90	Chance of CS	Poor perf	Def Stats	4SOTC	Flop
Evans	90	90	CS	Solid perf	CS	3SOTC	Deliver
Bellerin	90	90	Chance of Attk	Solid perf	C, KP	5SOTC, 3C	Expected
Sanchez	90	88	Attk	Outshone	KP, S	3/0S, 5KP	Expected
KDB	90	90	Attk	Outplayed	KP, S	0/0S	Expected
Ayew	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outshone	KP, S	3/3S	Gem
Mahrez	90	78	Attk	Solid perf	KP, S	3/1S, 1KP	Deliver
Sturridge	90	0	Attk	Injured	Injured	Injured	Injured
Pelle	90	90	Attk	Outshone	S	3/0S	Expected
Vardy	90	90	Attk	Solid perf	S	3/1S	Deliver
McCarthy	0	0	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched
Sissoko	90	90	Chance of Attk	Affected by red	KP, S	3/1S, 5KP	Unlucky
Sagna	90	90	Chance of Attk	Solid perf	C, KP	1SOTC	Gem
Francis	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C	2KP, 2C	Expected

Verdict

Delivers: Myhill, Evans, Mahrez, Vardy

Unlucky: Sissoko

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Francis, Pelle, KDB, Sanchez, Bellerin

Flops: Richards

Not Playing/Injured: Sturridge, McCarthy

Gem: Ayew, Sagna

1 Line reviews of players:

• ARS 2-1 EVE: Sanchez fatigued, Bellerin lost CS due to deflection
• AVL 1-2 SWA: Villa couldn't handle Swansea in general, Ayew quiet
• MUN 0-0 MCI: both sides not interested in attacking
• LIV 1-1 SOU: Pelle quiet 
• NOR 0-1 WBA: WBA defend deep to keep NOR out
• LEI 1-0 CRY: Solid perf from both Vardy & Mahrez despite being marked
• SUN 3-0 NEW: Sissoko affected by red card
• BOU 1-5 TOT: Boruc poor

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:

• Running through the same process after 8 games:
• Capping against "worst defenses" brought up Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland (top 3)
• With Newcastle playing Sunderland, I didn't have the balls to cap Sissoko. WBA was a nice fixture, but having 2 defenders is a good enough commitment.
• Best of the rest: LEI, CHE, BOU and AVL were also up there in being generous. 
• I eliminated Palace straight away. Without a WHM or TOT player, only SWA's Ayew was in consideration. The last Ayew cap gave me horrendous memories, which drove me away from the idea.
• Other considerations: 
• Vardy was the "form cap" compared to the rest of the attackers. 6 in a row was likely to bring forth a 7th. 

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Sigurdsson was back on everyone's radar, but I was satisfied with Ayew.
• Kane's 3 goals made the planned Sturridge substitute very interesting. I was tempted by picking Kane up instead of Lukaku, I have to admit.
• Payet continued to give me headaches. With Ayew recovering in form, I had run out of people to cut for Payet.

So the Gameweek went decently without Sturridge. Pelle and Sissoko did OK but I was incredibly sore about the Sunderland result in particular. Only Richards remained a flop at this point and I was finally planning transfers at the "speed" I wanted.

Lessons I thought about this Gameweek included:

• Potential is worth keeping. Ayew's stats were on the down, he was labeled 'Flop' several times, but sometimes it's important to acknowledge that form comes, goes and comes back. When it finally goes again though, I have to be sensitive towards it and be ruthless about it.
• There's no point playing a defense out of form by sacrificing a big player who has a chance to nail a CS. Leaving Sagna on the bench was an OK move on paper, but I could've easily fielded him over a stupid Villa side. 

On the previous week's picks:

• Sissoko:
• It was impossible to pick out a midfielder in this bracket that would've suited my needs for Gameweek 10. Still, STK, bou, LEI and cry remained so I had reason to keep the jury out on Sissoko.

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• After much deliberation, Sturridge was replaced by Bony. 
• NOR, avl, LIV and SOU awaited, which was good for returns almost immediately.
• Kane had to play AVL too, but ars, WHU and CHE came after that so I was pessimistic
• Why didn't I pick up Lukaku? I REALLY DON'T KNOW.....

The final lineup for GW11 looked like this:

Myhill (LEI)

Sagna (NOR) / Evans (LEI) / Bellerin (swa)

Sanchez(swa) / KDB (NOR) / Mahrez(wba) / Sissoko (STK)

Pelle (BOU) / Bony (NOR) / Vardy (LEI)

Bench: McCarthy / Ayew / Francis / Richards