Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 8

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 8 was the prelude to yet another international break; some key rests also caused lot of havoc, which I thankfully survived (and gained 800k rank int he process)
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 8

Results:

96 with 2 hits. Gameweek rank 195k, brought me up to 2.2m despite needing 2 substitutes come on.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Myhill	90	90	Saves	6 Saves	>3Saves	8SOTC	Deliver
Sagna	90	0	Chance of CS, Attk	Benched	C, KP	Benched	Benched
Richards	90	90	Chance of CS	OK Perf	Def Stats	Top CBI	Expected
Francis	90	90	Chance of Attk	Active	C, KP	7C, 2KP	Expected
Sanchez	90	80	Attk	Star	KP, S	4/2S, 2KP	Deliver
Sterling	90	45	Attk	Quiet	KP, S	1/0S	Flop
Ayew	90	90	Chance of Attk	Lucky	KP, S	1/1S	Lucky
Mahrez	90	0	Attk	Benched	KP, S	Benched	Benched
Aguero	90	65	Attk	Solid perf	S	8/5 S	Deliver
Sturridge	90	90	Attk	Outplayed	S	3/0S	Flop
Vardy	90	90	Attk	Solid Perf	S	5/3S	Deliver
McCarthy	0	0	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched
Westwood	90	74	Chance of Attk	Set pieces	KP, C	0KP	Flop
Evans	90	23	Chance of CS	Injured	Def Stats	Injured	Injured
S. Taylor	0	0	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched

Verdict

Delivers: Sanchez, Aguero, Vardy, Myhill

Unlucky: None

Lucky: Ayew

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Richards, Francis

Flops: Sterling, Sturridge

Not Playing/Injured: Sagna, Mahrez, McCarthy, Evans, S. Taylor

Gem: None

1 Line reviews of players:

• MCI 5-1 NEW: Aguero the star, Sterling quiet again, Sagna benched
• BOU 1-1 WAT: Francis involved in attack
• AVL 0-1 STK: Westwood on set pieces, Richards encouraging
• NOR 1-2 LEI: Mahrez benched, Vardy the star
• CRY 2-0 WBA: McCarthy benched, Evans injured. Myhill exposed by defense
• SWA 2-2 TOT: Ayew scored against the run of play. 
• ARS 3-0 MUN: Sanchez the star
• EVE 1-1 LIV: Unique setup affected Sturridge

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:

• Hindsight time! After the first 7 games:
• Capping against "worst defenses" brought up Leicester, Chelsea and Sunderland (top 3)
• Without a Norwich, Southampton or West Ham player, I couldn't consider any of these options.
• Best of the rest: Norwich, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Stoke and Aston Villa were also on double digits conceded for the season.
• Stoke played Villa, Norwich played Leicester and I didn't have a Watford player. The decision was obvious to cap against Newcastle - who else but Aguero?
• Other considerations: 
• I really, really should've at least considered picking Payet/Sakho up for a hit if he was such a strong candidate based on fixtures. Massive oversight on my end, even if I had a bias against West Ham.

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Cabaye was starting to get some attention with the start of his goalscoring form. He was noted as a Sterling replacement.
• Ighalo was starting to pick up pace as well; with Aguero and Vardy locked in, I just couldn't see myself upgrading Westwood to bench anyone in particular, so I passed on Ighalo at least until I verified that Sturridge was a true flop.
• KDBieber as one of the late summer signings started to show Pedro levels of output, which I noted as yet another replacement for Sterling. Payet though, was a bigger concern. Could I have picked up both? Hell, even Mane was in blistering form.

This Gameweek served as a reminder of my "penny wise, pound foolish" habits. I lost sight of the fact that Lukaku was supposed to be brought in after GW8 anyway. Why didn't I just buy him instead of Sturridge, since I was locked in on Aguero and Vardy? This one week punt (for a hit too) was a massive gamble and it didn't pay off.This way, Lovren could've been UPGRADED into a defender that could've brought me more points.

On the previous week's picks:

• Vardy:
• One fix at a time. The squad improved with his stable addition.
• Sturridge:
• Massive oversight, as stated earlier. Not much more to be said.
• Richards: 
• Was meant to be saved for a rainy day, and it certainly paid off. However, there were no real candidates for Lovren's replacement -  I certainly wasnt' going to pick up another Liverpool, West Ham or Palace defender.

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• With Ayew getting lucky, I decided to replace Sterling first and foremost, trusting that the injuries sustained here were temporary. Aguero also had to go; his injury really cost him.
• Turning back to Pelle was a sensible move, although I could've picked up Lukaku too. For some reason I chased form again; with 5 decent games coming up, it was understandable I guess. Sakho was in my thoughts for sure.
• Second flop to deal with was another "compatriot" swap - Sterling to KDB was another Pedro minded move. Once again, Mane and Payet were in consideration, but KDB was definitely the flashier pick that I liked.
• With Evans injured also, I felt that the injury would be short term. Hence I replaced S. Taylor instead, upgrading him to the "in form" Bellerin.

The final lineup for GW9 looked like this (with 2 hits)

Myhill (SUN)

Sagna (BOU) / Evans(SUN) / Bellerin (wat)

Sanchez(wat) / KDB (BOU) / Mahrez(sou) / Ayew(STK) 

Pelle (LEI) / Sturridge(tot) / Vardy (sou)

Bench: McCarthy / Westwood / Richards / Francis