Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 2

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is part of a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 2 is a post-mortem of the results in order to utilise the 2FT available pre-GW3.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 2 Results:

30 Points. 2.8m rank, down to 2.5m OR now.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
Pantilimon	90	90	Good Chance of CS	Conceded 3	CS	Conceded 3	Flop
Ivanovic	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C, S	4C, 1/0S	Flop
Jenkinson	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C	6C	Expected
Cedric	90	90	Chance of Attk or CS	Outplayed	C	6C, 1KP	Expected
Hazard	90	90	Attk	Quiet	KP, S	2KP, 1/1S	Flop
Fabregas	90	90	Attk	Quiet	KP	2KP	Flop
Ozil	90	82	Attk	Decent	KP, S	5KP, 1/0S	Deliver
Silva	90	90	Attk	Influential	KP	4KP	Deliver
B. Johnson	90	29	Attk	Benched	S	4/0S	Flop
Pelle	90	90	Attk	Outplayed	S	7/1S	Expected
Sakho	90	90	Attk	Outplayed	S	3/2S	Expected
Hennessey	0	0	Bench	Benched	Bench	-	Expected
Wilson	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	Bench	1/0S	Expected
Mings	90	0	Start	Benched	Bench	-	Flop
Wollscheid	90	0	Start	Benched	Bench	-	Flop

Verdict

Delivers: Ozil

Unlucky: None

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed: Cedric, Pelle, Sakho, Jenkinson, Wilson

Flops: Hazard, Fabregas; Pantilimon, Ivanovic, B. Johnson

Not Playing/Injured: Mings, Wollscheid

Gem: None

1 Line reviews of players:

• SUN/NOR: Johnson DROPPED. Pantilimon exposed by Sunderland's poor defending
• SOU/EVE: Pelle double-teamed, Cedric conceded from counterattacks
• WHU/LEI: Sakho muted due to lack of service. Jenkinson outplayed by Leicester's wide players.
• CRY/ARS: Ozil drifts wide to create chances; not the ideal but it worked.
• MCI/CHE: Silva shined as the playmaker, Fabregas underwhelming, Hazard quiet
• LIV/BOU: Wilson muted due to hard opposition, Mings not starting again

Afterthoughts

With 2 games under our belt, form indicators whittled the initial list down to the following:

• Barkley (1G, 1G1A)
• Kone (1G1A, 1A but lack of starts)
• Redmond (1G, 1G but lack of starts)
• Hoolahan (1A, 2A)
• Andre Ayew (1G, 1G)
• Payet (1A, 1G)
• Mahrez (2G, 1G)
• Albrighton (1G 2A, 1A)
• Yaya (2G, 1A)

With this list and two transfers in hand, the move to make was certainly to prioritize dropping liabilities and gaining assets. Two flops were obvious (Fabregas, Hazard) and at that price range, but there was a more pressing issue at hand - bringing Aguero back into the squad. This meant sacrificing Pelle or Sakho; both players were outplayed but had decent stats, so due to price gap, Pelle made way.

Action Taken

Hazard, Fabregas (liability), Pelle (expected, outplayed) -> Aguero, Sanchez, Westwood.

To accomodate the upgrade, I made my first gamble - I banked on Johnson to do well GW3 (because of his shooting output) and I bought Westwood as my 5th midfielder, upgrading BJ to 4th mid and upgrading Pelle to Aguero as a result. Sanchez was also brought in, which made the team look pretty good going into GW3:

Pantilimon (SWA) /
Ivan (wba) Jenks (BOU) Cedric (wat) /
Silva Sanchez Ozil BJ (STK) /
Aguero Wilson Sakho

Secondary actions included monitoring the status of possible deadweight BJ while sourcing replacements for Mings (non start), Wollscheid (dropped), Jenkinson (outplayed) and Ivanovic (flop).