Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight, Gameweek 13

Premier League 2015/16 Lessons In Hindsight is a series that forces me to look at the ugly face in the mirror and determine what to let go of past history and what to bring into next season. Gameweek 13 was an opportune moment to punt against Leicester, Stoke, Villa and West Brom and it backfired almost completely.
Results & Analysis: This format has been done before.

Projected Score	Actual Score	FPL KPI	Verdict
Good	Good	Good	Deliver
Good	Bad	Decent/Good	Unlucky
Good	Good	Bad	Lucky
Good	Bad	Bad	Flop
Bad	Good	Good	Gem
Bad	Bad	Good	Unlucky
Bad	Good	Bad	Lucky
Bad	Bad	Bad	Expected

Gameweek 13

Results:

38 points with 2 hits. The 3.1m Gameweek rank saw me plummet to 2.3m overall.

The rule is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player	Minutes		Influence		Numbers		Verdict
	Exp	Act	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
De Gea	90	90	Chance of CS	Solid perf	CS + Saves	5 Saves	Deliver
Bellerin	90	90	Chance of CS, Attk	Poor perf	CS, C, KP	5C	Unlucky
Bertrand	90	90	Chance of CS, Attk	Outplayed	C, KP	2C, 4SOTC	Flop
Francis	90	90	Chance of Attk	Solid perf	C, KP	8C, 1KP	Expected
Sanchez	90	90	Attk	Poor perf	S, KP	1/2S, 3KP	Flop
KDB	90	90	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	0/0S, 4KP	Unlucky
Delofeu	90	73	Chance of Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	2KP	Expected
Mahrez	90	88	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	2/0S,5KP	Deliver
Aguero	90	65	Attk	Quiet	S	2/2S	Deliver
Ayoze	90	80	Attk	Poor perf	S, KP	1/0S	Flop
Vardy	90	76	Attk	Solid perf	S, KP	3/6S	Deliver
McCarthy	0	0	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched	Benched
Sissoko	90	90	Chance of Attk	Poor perf	S, KP	2/0S, 1KP	Expected
Sagna	90	90	Chance of Attk	Outplayed	C, KP	0C, 0KP	Expected
Evans	90	90	2 points	Outplayed	2 Points	Low CBI	Expected

Verdict

Delivers: De Gea, Mahrez, Aguero, Vardy

Unlucky: KDB, Bellerin

Lucky: None

Expected/Outplayed/Outshone: Francis, Deulofeu, Sagna, Evans

Flops: Bertrand, Sanchez, Ayoze

Not Playing/Injured: McCarthy, 

Gem: None

1 Line reviews of players:

• WAT 1-2 MUN: De Gea stars
• WBA 2-1 ARS: Bellerin poor after being back from injury, Sanchez wasteful
• EVE 4-0 AVL: Deulofeo very involved
• NEW 0-3 LEI: Mahrez & Vardy outplay Newcastle, Sissoko & Ayoze affected by poor service
• SOU 0-1 STK: Southampton outplayed by Stoke counterattacks
• SWA 2-2 BOU: Poor performance from Bournemouth
• MCI 1-4 LIV: Liverpool high press too much for MCI

Afterthoughts

Captaincy:

• Running through the same process:
• Capping against "worst defenses" brought up SUN, BOU, NOR, CHE, NEW
• CHE vs. NOR eliminated both. Didn't own a CRY or SWA player
• In this case, perhaps it was a massive oversight to not cap Vardy or Mahrez here
• Best of the rest: AVL, LEI
• Wasn't happy with Deulofeu cap potential. Ayoze was too punty too for a cap.
• Other considerations: 
• One of Mahrez or Vardy should have been the captain's choice here considering Newcastle's poor defensive form and Leicester's scoring spree.

Among the kneejerk picks:

• Kane, Lukaku, Ozil and Coutinho did the job yet again. 
• I found it an acceptable risk owning Aguero over Kane. I felt that both would return similar points over a period of 8 weeks and I think it was an OK decision to have one of the two. I didn't think that the risk of breaking the squad apart for owning Aguero/Kane/Vardy was worth it.
• Lukaku however was certainly a mistake that hurt me too much. I think selling Sanchez should've been done way earlier, considering his performances on the pitch - a swap to Ozil would've made the move for Lukaku much easier.
• Coutinho nabbed a goal and an assist yet again. At this point I felt that KDB was my differential against him - once again, a decision I wouldn't regret despite it hurting as hell.
• On a side note, I was rather frustrated at Butland's CS here. 5 CS in 5 was certainly no joke considering this was a Jekyll & Hyde Stoke side.

Lessons I learnt from this Gameweek included:

• There's no such thing as a sideways transfer if form is shown by the alternative. Sanchez to Ozil should have been done way earlier. End of story.
• Form beats fixtures. I was deceived by a home game against a porous Leicester and a game at the Hawthorns versus Pulis. Sure Arsenal were beaten, but they certainly had every chance of scoring.
• Never punt on sides with poor form, despite having players I liked. Newcastle had a good mix of youngsters and experienced heads; I should've heeded the sigh when Newcastle only scored 1 goal in 3 after the Norwich thrashing via Sissoko's outputs.

On the previous week's picks:

• Aguero in was justified. I didn't have much to complain about 6 points.
• Deulofeu and Ayoze were certainly desperation picks and I think this is where I have to man up and say that I got too greedy. They were decisive but I should limit cheap punts to one player, not 3 (Sissoko, Deu, Ayoze).

Action Taken

Replacing players: 

• Sanchez to Ozil was finally done.
• Ayoze to Lukaku was also executed swiftly. Good.
• As a makeweight, liability Sissoko was shipped for a bench-fodder slash potential differential. Stanislas at 4.2 was starting games and he was an ACTUAL punt; with Deulofeu having fixtures on his side, I could at least field him for the fixtures while having Stanislas as a decent sub.

The final lineup for GW13 looked like this (2 hits)

DDG (lei)

Sagna (SOU) / Bellerin (nor) Evans (whm)

Ozil (nor) / KDB (SOU) / Mahrez (MUN) / Deulofeu (bou) 

Aguero (SOU) / Lukaku (bou) / Vardy (MUN)

Bench: McCarthy / Stanislas / Francis / Bertrand