Gameweek 11: Lessons

So let's start off with the Gameweek's scores:

Player	Home/Away	Projected Score	Actual Score	Verdict
Begovic	Home	6	7	DELIVER
Baines	Home	6 to 9	4	FLOP
Gorkss	Home	2 or 6	6	DELIVER
Cameron	Home	2 or 6	6	DELIVER
Fellaini	Home	7 or more	13	DELIVER
Bale	Away	2 to 7	2	EXPECTED
Cazorla	Home	5 or more	2	FLOP
Maloney	Home	2 to 6	2	FLOP
Suarez	Away	2 to 6	9	DELIVER
Ba	Home	1 to 6	2	FLOP
RVP	Away	6 at least	5	FLOP
Krul	Home	2 or 6	2	EXPECTED
Wilkinson	Home	2 or 6	6	DELIVER
Nolan	Away	2 to 7	11	DELIVER
Davies	Away	2	2	EXPECTED

So the strategy this week was a budget defense, and relying on a combination of the players playing at home, and my elite players to deliver. As of Saturday (pre-bonus), the score doesn't look bad at all...

*Updated Monday*

Well it looks like Sunday's games were a mixed bag, but I'll do the elaboration in the following paragraphs.

It is most likely that I'll be including the Underlying Stats here when ShotsonTarget puts them out to justify my players as DELIVERS or FLOPS, but as of now I'll be sticking to this format,

The DELIVERS

The entire budget defense. Amazing decisions to bring in a Reading and another Stoke defender. Not sure whether this was a one-off. Nevertheless, I'll be filing this strategy for later days.

Offensively however, Fellaini was the only DELIVER here, but if your cheap players are delivering and your money makers are not, I'm gonna need to find out why soon.

*Suarez also did better than expected by scoring against Pool as well as getting maximum bonus, so you could say that the numbers game is paying off.

The EXPECTEDs

The upsides of the elite players were quite uncertain this week. 2 high profile clashes in Ctiy v Spurs, and Chelsea v Pool decreased expected points from Bale and Suarez, and the EXPECTED budget players, well, delivered in that sense.

*Krul's 2 points against West Ham also brings up an interesting talking point, as their defensive consistencies at home have completely let them down this season. I was very adamant about the Newcastle bubble breaking last season, but it seems like they're still suffering from hangovers. Might have to let go of Newcastle assets soon.

The FLOPS

Sentiment told me to go with Cazorla. This case won a point for the Form vs Fixtures argument, as RVP didn't score but at least got an assist, hopefully the underlying stats will make me keep Cazorla as compared to bringing Mata in. Baines' performance also disappointed, but I'm going to wait for ShotsonTarget to churn some numbers before I pass more judgement. Finger itchy on cashing in and upgrading the defense in general. Also have Vertonghen in mind.

*Ba's 2 points didn't really justify his inclusion over Nolan either. Could it be that the striker has lost form? Or is it about the way Newcastle are playing?

Lessons Learnt

1. Elite Players: Form beats fixtures.

Hopefully the stats will back me up here, but I'm hoping that this ONLY applies to elite players so that I can make buy decisions better. Case in point: I had a couple of players in the squad for "Form" reasons, such as RVP, Suarez and Bale, but I also had Ba and Cazorla penned in for relatively easy fixtures despite having lost a bit of form to either bad results or just injury.

The counterargument to this is that different players (as well as different teams) perform differently home and away, which is something I have yet to explore and I certainly will once stats are updated.

2. Doubling up on defense: No point hedging bets.

I might edit this section later in the week, as I did have the option of playing both Stoke defenders and the Reading defender instead of, say, Bale or Ba. But hopefully I can let the stats do the talking.

Conclusion:

So with a modest 63 points with another 13 points sitting on the bench if I had played by cards right, I can safely say that I had a decent week. It's just a shame that I lost out to my rival by a single point, his Mata assist making the real difference betweenour first XI's.