GW11 Projections

The team for this week, as well as projected points. Will probably make a separate page on projections vs results later in the week.


First XI, followed by subs

Player	Position	Fixture	Projected Score
Begovic	GK	QPR (H)	6
Baines	DEF	SUN (H)	6 to 9
Gorkss	DEF	NOR (H)	2 or 6
Cameron	DEF	QPR (H)	2 or 6
Fellaini (C)	MID	SUN (H)	7 or more
Bale	MID	MCI (A)	2 to 7
Cazorla	MID	FUL (H)	5 or more
Maloney	MID	WBA (H)	2 to 6
Suarez	FWD	CHE (A)	2 to 6
Ba	FWD	WHU (H)	1 to 6
RVP	FWD	AVL (A)	6 at least
Krul	GK	WHU (H)	2 or 6
Wilkinson	DEF	QPR (H)	2 or 6
Nolan	MID	NEW (A)	2 to 7
Davies	DEF	SOU (A)	2

Looking at my 3-4-3, I'm painting quite an optimistic picture for this week as I am expecting all my elite and mid-price players to fire bar Bale and Suarez.

The only risks I see in this current lineup would be Ba's starting chances and losing possible clean sheets from Gorkss and Cameron. Hedging my bets at the moment, but I might look at stats from Shots On Target later and make a final decision later in the day.

Based on what I have projected, I admit that I do have choices on my bench, the most obvious being Wilkinson for Gorkss, but it seeing that their upsides are similar, I SHOULD make my judgement based on stats. Davies isn't really a strong option, but if I had the time I might also take a look at Southampton's recent data, especially at home, and see if I can sneak him in if I really, really don't wanna include 2 Stoke defenders.

Nolan's a relatively tricky decision to make, because of the people he could potentially replace. His upside against a Newcastle side who haven't kept a clean sheet in a while could potentially displace Ba, or even Bale. Will update this post once I get a second opinion.

*Update* - Friday

And I have found a second opinion. PL Fantasy's GW11 Preview has forecasted attacking and defensive returns, and there are some key stats for my comparison:

Wilkinson vs. Gorkss vs. Davies

In terms of forecasted goals conceded, Wilkinson and Gorkss have about the same xG (~0.7), and Davies has an xG of 1.7-1.8. Seeing that both Reading and Stoke's defense are both likely to keep clean sheets, the expert is siding fielding Gorkss at the moment (Reading's numbers are slightly better than Stoke) so that's one vote for Gorkss.

Nolan v Ba v Bale

This one is a bit trickier because I have to take up comparisons for their teams as well as their individual forecasts. While the cheap defender dilemma can be easily resolved with "Yes or No Clean Sheet" argument, Nolan vs Ba would also depend on their respective teams doing well.

So, in terms of Team Attacking Returns, Newcastle do look like they'll fare slightly better, with Ba (4.725) individually also trumping Nolan (3.83). However, Tottenham's attacking threat looks to be less than both teams, but Bale (4.44) is sitting between Ba and Nolan. The head will suggest playing Ba and Bale then. Sounds reasonable.