DGW Planning, 9 April

Dear FPL Managers,

I hope that everyone survived this week's horrendous Gameweek. How the average jumped from 20 points to 32 is still beyond me. Must be that all the ghost teams had their subs come on consisting of Demels and Hooivelds or something.

Since most of you are probably almost well setup for the DGWs with planned Fellaini transfers in, I'll refer a lot to the previous article (which is also on this site) but I'll update the tiers with a new type of recommendation - Worth a Hit. There are managers out there who are very, very keen on profitting off these DGWs and I'm going to offer my 2 cents on who to take hits/ not take hits for and why.

Updates, Visuals and DGWs etc. can be found in the last article. 

Transfer Planning - Gameweek 33

Wildcard holders have a relatively easy decision to make here. If you're a WC holder and you have like 6-7 DGW players this week, you'd probably profit from getting 1-2 more, then you can use it post GW33 to load up on GW36 players. If you have less than 6, I'd suggest burning the Wildcard now.

WIth that settled, on to the tiers. Will include fixtures up to GW36 as well. Gonna attempt to shake up the tiers a bit based on fixtures because the decisions you make now probably have to contribute towards GW36 as well.

Tier 1 (Teams with confirmed DGW, as well as favourable fixtures ahead)

Ars (NOR EVE, ful, MUN, qpr)
Eve (QPR ars, sun, FUL, liv)
Mnu (stk whm, AVL, ars, CHE)

Tier 2 (Team with confirmed DGW but difficult fixtures on the horizon)

Ful (avl CHE, ARS, eve, RDG)
Whu (sot MUN, WIG, mci, NEW)

Tier 3A (SGW Teams with a DGW somewhere later, with decent fixtures in between)

Mci (WIG, tot, WHM, swa)
Wig (mci, whm, TOT, wba SWA)

Tier 3B (SGW Teams with a DGW somewhere later, with difficult fixtures in between)

Che (ful, liv, SWA, mun)

Tier 4A (Teams with no more DGWs, but relatively good fixtures)

Avl (FUL, mun, SUN, nor)
Rdg (LIV, nor, QPR, ful)
Sot (WHM, swa, WBA, tot)
New (SUN, wba, LIV, whm)

Nor (ars, RDG, sto, AVL)

Liv (rdg, CHE, new, EVE)

Tier 4B (Teams with no more DGWs, but mixed fixtures)

QPR (eve, STO, rdg, ARS)

Sto (MUN, qpr, NOR, sun)

Sun (new, EVE, avl, STO)

Tier 5 (Teams with blank GW33, but with DGWs later on)

Swa (-, SOT, che, MCI wig)
Wba (-, NEW, sot, WIG)
Tot (- MCI, wig, SOT)

The Plan

(1) Sizing your Core. 

While Sizing the Bench was the strategy leading up to GW33, planning for GW36 is going to be about sizing the players you would stick to through the rest of the season, since there are no more blanks, as of now. This will come down to picking a certain number of players that you'd play every game, combined with a set of players who you'd rotate. 

Players that you'd include in your core are Tier 1, 3a and 5 while you'd rotate everyone else. 

(2) Picking up/Dropping Players - All about Timing

As of now, there's a lot of fixture uncertainty going around Chelsea, Spurs and even Man City, as their games have not been rescheduled yet. The obvious move at the moment is to hold transfers on these players, and I'll probably touch on when to get these players in their respective team pages later.

(3) Recommendations

The recommendations I'll be making NOW will be based on things as they stand in terms of fixture difficulty, form and Fantasy squad depth, if possible.

Tier 1:(Arsenal, Everton, Man Utd)

So compared to the last article, Fulham drop out of the tier for good reason. The only booby trap for getting players from this tier is the fact that Man United and Arsenal play against each other in this week.

Personally i already have DDG, RVP, Caz and Walcott so while I am fortunate enough to have Boruc to cover for DDG that week, you guys might not be as lucky just be prepared to have a nail biter in GW35. The other alternative is that you start shipping Man United assets after GW34 as the fixtures go sour from there on, especially if they have wrapped up the title by then. They only need 10 points to seal the title mind you, and the fixtures prior to the Arsenal are very, very winnable. Baines against Liverpool is also a potentially tough one, but those willing to risk it can field Baines by all means (I'll probably bench him BTW).

Conclusion:

1. BUY Arsenal, and Everton offensive assets. Walcott, Cazorla, Fellaini, and even Mirallas are really, really decent choices while those not keen on spending too much on Everton can always pick up Anichebe. 

2. BUY AT YOUR OWN RISK is the verdict for Man United assets. With their "guaranteed" starters so far (which is DDG RVP and Roo really) you'd keep them for the rest of the season unless you need the cash (I'm picking up Chelsea after GW36 so don't mind me). With everyone else, you'd probably keep them as well bar Evra, who will probably be rested again in the next few games or so. Other managers who have invested in cheapers defenders like Rafael, Ferdinand or even Jones can hold but start preparing a good 5th defender just in case these players don't start.

3. Arsenal and Everton defensive assets warrant a BUY as well for now, primarily because (A) the only real value player you'd buy as of now is Sagna/Baines. Both players are nailed, have decent fixtures, and Baines has the potential to deliver in tough fixtures while Sagna is easily benchable. If you pick them up now, you'd probably keep them for the season.

Tier 2: West Ham, Fulham

West Ham and Fulham are tricky ones because West Ham are only knows for their defensive assets (consistently) at least, and Fulham only have only 1 player worth investing for the long term. 

Keeping that in mind, if you already have the teams' respective strengths in your lineup, expect to either bench them in your lineups for their difficult fixtures respectively. West Ham defenders can be rested in tandem with Everton, QPR, Southampton, and even Sunderland for the punters while Fulham attackers could lay low for GW34 and 35, while having Newcastle, QPR, and Reading can take over for the weeks. 

Conclusion: Pick up players from these teams if you have their "rotation partners" for the rest of the season. If not, I wouldn't get them at all. Once again, 

West Ham matches will work with Everton, QPR, Southampton and Sunderland

Fulham matches with Newcastle, QPR and Reading.

An additional mention I have to make is for Demel and Jaask. Eating my words was definitely not an unfamiliar experience as I have been proven wrong many times over the course of the season. Having these players now (and playing them) isn't a crime, I can see Demel staying for the season (as an accomplished manager will probably have a Shaw/Clyne lurking somewhere).

Jaask's situation is slightly trickier: He doesn't exactly pair well with the next set of DGW players bar Foster, so if you intend to keep Jaask for the season, you would probably "shoot the moon" and pick up Cech for whatever fixtures they get next. They cover Jaask's fixtures well with a potential TGW in GW36. 

Tier 3: Man City, Wigan, Chelsea

I mentioned last week that players in this tier can be considered differentials to the DGW players as they have another DGW coming up themselves, and I would stick to that statement. The plan with City and Wigan offensive players are quite simple: City's players (offensively and defensively) are playable until the end of the season, while Wigan's "playable" games are very clear cut. Any Wigan players you have now are probably really, really good first sub candidates anyway and I'd be more than happy to have Maloney/Kone potentially coming off the bench. 

FYI, as with the Tier 2 teams, Wigan rotate well with:

Chelsea, Everton, Man City, Newcastle, and Southampton. So manage wisely.

Chelsea, however, is a little bit trickier.The fixture congestion is getting pretty tricky, with a Triple Gameweek possible based on how far they go on their Cup runs. Not gonna elaborate much on that because it's all speculation at the moment, but what I'd do with my current Chelsea assets is keep them unless I have no other problems. Beyond the Liverpool and Man United game, Chelsea have decent fixtures anyway and if I would feel ok starting Hazard/Mata in those fixtures if I didn't have other fires to put out. I also wouldn't get more Chelsea in until the FA Cup Semi-Final is played this weekend. Will update this article then.

Tier 4: A Lot of Teams

Umm, chances are that you wouldn't be getting these players in this week. I'll make a quick note on whether to DROP them, but just in case you needed to draft in a player to find a Cazorla transfer or something, here are some players who could be gems for you...

Avl (FUL, mun, SUN, nor)

Benteke is the obvious pickup here, but with your front 3 probably loaded with 3 DGW strikers already, the best time to pick up Benteke is just before GW35. If not, keep until end of the season.

Rdg (LIV, nor, QPR, ful)

Nigel Adkins' team so far has given us no indication of buying any of their players. a 4-1 defeat at Arsenal and a 2-0 loss AT HOME to Southampton really has warded off any interest, personally at least. I do still rate their home form somewhat and I expect them to score random goals here and there, but there are quite a few cut price options emerging (such as West Ham and Southampton) and I wouldn't touch this team with a 10 foot pole, unless I'm smacking any Reading players out of my squad with it.

Sot (WHM, swa, WBA, tot)

Please keep all the Southampton players you have. For those who somehow identified 5 midfielders to field for the DGW (I think there are managers out there who have 2 ARS 2 EVE and Nolan) you can easily pick up Rodriguez as a flair pick for cracking the top 100k or something. Southampton are startable all the way to the end of the season and if I had Rodriguez on the bench, I wouldn't mind him as a first sub at all. Clyne and Shaw (if he's nailed) are also decent pickups if you desperately need to downgrade someone to get a Baines or something. 

New (SUN, wba, LIV, whm)

Newcastle have been trudging along lately and I don't exactly have stats to back this up, but losses in the Europa league, as well as losses mixed with wins in the league have put question marks over owning Newcastle at all. Most will ask about Sissoko and I think you can safely say that Sissoko was once a spark that has now faded somewhat, and you're probably better off holding on to Cisse while shipping Sissoko for cheaper options such as Maloney. 

Nor (ars, RDG, sto, AVL)

Snodgrass scored. About time Snodgrass scored. How long more do you wanna wait for the next Snodgrass goal I don't know. As for their defence, home games against relegation threatened sides as well as an away game to Stoke warrants a KEEP for anyone who has Turner etc. 

In fact, with the defence this secure, I don't see why wouldn't you pick up a Norwich defender after GW33. I know they don't have a DGW but they'd make a really, really solid part of your core squad for really cheap and you wouldn't let them go. Especially since Bunn/Camp/Ruddy are all in limbo at the moment.

Liv (rdg, CHE, new, EVE)

Liverpool are a curious case at the moment. Form suggests that they'll score, so it's definitely worth keeping all your attacking Liverpool assets, although I probably wouldn't bring anyone new in this week. At this point in time Liverpool offensive players probably WOULD make your core squad, but I'd drop any Enriques or Johnsons you have after GW33. I also wouldn't bring in anymore Liverpool players after GW33, there are just so many bloody options atm.

QPR (eve, STO, rdg, ARS)

Well Remy put up a decent fight. Now for GW33 you'd probably bench against Everton, and there are quite a few candidates that rotate well with QPR just in case you do decide to keep your Remy. QPR do well with 

Wigan, Spurs (Dawson comes to mind for Samba/Fabio/Hill owners), and Fulham. So have them as players you'd rotate, just make sure if you keep a QPR player you rotate him with the aforementioned 3 teams.

Sun (new, EVE, avl, STO)

1 game against Chelsea doesn't say very much. Any investment in Sunderland curerntly should be held off as (A) they're quite expensive for a side to punt on for what you'd expect back and (B) they run into sides that are also fighting for something. There's just no real value in this team to warrant a rotation pickup even, so I'll pass on this team and hope they're still around next season.

Sto (MUN, qpr, NOR, sun)

Stoke have deceptively good fixtures beyond Man United and if their form didn't fall so hard, many would still be keeping Bego and Wilson et al. Those choosing to hold on to Wilson I can understand as he IS still an invaluable squad player. But with his injury I personally have no idea how long he'll be out for, and no one else really screams PICK ME in this side. 

A note for those wanting to get rid of Begovic: Do it if necessary, just not for a hit. Keepers that start every game are hard to come by, and unless you upgrade him to a really, really profitable player (DDG for the DGW is risky IMO, Cech for his maybe?) I don't see him worth the -4 at all. 

Tier 5:

Swa (-, SOT, che, MCI wig)
Wba (-, NEW, sot, WIG)
Tot (- MCI, wig, SOT)

Tier 5 presents some interesting propositions because based on fixtures, Spurs players can make your CORE squads from GW35 onwards while WBA and Swansea are decent attacking sides.

Thankfully, the plan of action for Tottenham players is simple: Wait until GW35. WBA is an interesting one because of their non-relevancy (I had to check FPL again for their score at the weekend because I didn't remember) but long story short it's hard to pickup anyone from WBA since Shane Long is back. 

Swansea also present an interesting problem: Resting them for the blank, Swansea's fixtures go downhill after Southampton at home and Michu's goalscoring form returning really puts many managers in a spot of bother. Personally Michu's a "keep" for me, but if he doesn't deliver against the Saints the timing will be perfect to ship him out for Bale anyway. Otherwise, Michu will make a great bench player or he can be rotated with WBA, SUN or MCI which is no one really. Just keep Michu for the season if you intend to have Michu for the DGW. It's only sensible. Otherwise, don't buy him, there are better options.

Conclusion

Set your core squad. You should have 7 MINIMUM Core outfield players, implying that you have 3 bench players rotating with the other 3 remaining that you start for the week.

Out of the 7 core players, 6 of them should be in your attacking 8, implying that you use 1 of the 2 attackers from your "rotation pair" every week. Your defense, however, will obviously have 1 "Core" defender and then 2 pairs of defenders who rotate with each other, unless one of your Core players is a Norwich defender, then you're pretty damn set ;-)

Tier 1, Tier 3A and Tier 4A should make up your Core. Personally I'm planning a Core of Baines, Turner and Zaba/Clyne in defense, Wally Caz, Fellaini and Gerrard in midfield, and RVP with Suarez in attack. I'll rotate the rest of the fringe players according to fixtures,  but if I make a transfer in for a possible Core player (such as Bale in during GW35), a Core player will be shipped out (such as RVP for my case). 

Hope this concept work for everyone else. I'm gonna try out this system but I just hope that the recomendations give everyone else insight on what to do next. 

ANY SUGGESTIONS ARE REALLY REALLY WELCOME. Want to improve on this and make it a viable strategy for next season if it works.

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