DGW Planning, 5 April

A new twist in the buildup to the DGWs is Bale's ankle injury in the Europa League match last night. The massive Baleout has already begun, so I'll be doing a quick update on what's hot and hopefully by the time you finish reading this you'll have a sound decision in mind. Tiers will also be updated as well (which the Bale tier really).

Updates on DGWs and blanks can be found here.

Visual on the DGWs and blanks can be found here.

IMPORTANT Note: Use this link for now, but treat the CHE GW33 Fixture as "ful" only, and the TOT GW33 fixture as a blank. 

TL;DR - Since the last article,

Arsenal, Man United, Everton, Fulham and West Ham are CONFIRMED to have Double Gameweeks while

Swansea, West Brom and Spurs have blanks.

On top of that, Bale is injured. I refuse to post pics.

The gist of this article will be planning for Gameweeks 33, and possibly Gameweek 36.

I'll also touch on what you should expect out of your Chelsea players, but expect it to be similar to the last article.

This article will cut to the chase and I'll go straight to the strategies involved in tackling these Gameweeks. The tiers will also be automatically updated.

Cheslsea - GW31
An important point to make (at the moment) is that Chelsea are playing their 4th game in 8 days, which is Sunderland at the Bridge. The following paragraph will show both sides of the coin in terms of owning/thinking of bringing in a Chelsea player.

The Cons:

The word "Rafatation/Rafaultion" will scare quite a few Chelsea players away from their suitors, which is understandable. Mata and Hazard have been rested already and no one can guarantee that any of the Chelsea potential scorers will play against Sunderland. No one likes their Mata or Hazard coming on for a 1 point cameo either. On the other hand, the upside of all this is that

(A) Chelsea play a very out of sorts Sunderland and a generally leaky Fulham. If you keep Mata/Hazard in your squad you're likely to profit from one of these fixtures if your bench is decent.
(B) With Chelsea's replacement game against Fulham now rescheduled for GW33, your Chelsea investment will probably be for the long term. If your squad composition is optimal, you'll technically be one step ahead in terms of getting Chelsea, Spurs and Wigalona players into your squad.

With the pros and cons listed out, the conclusions are simple (Since they aren't at risk of a blank anymore):

1. Get Chelsea players at your own risk. As I have mentioned before, having Chelsea players in your squad for GW33 is NOT a bad thing. If you are looking at the Sunderland game though, I'd exercise cautiona nd wait until the Europa game against Rubin Kazan is played out before making your decision.
2. Those with budget constraints I feel will be heavily investing on DGW defenders, which include the likes of Demel, Sagna and even possibly an Evans hiding somewhere in their squads. If you can field 4 defenders that have good fixtures/DGW, I don't see any harm in having say, Bale + Mata in your squad rested and then stockpiling on GW36 DGW players already. All comes down to your squad for GW33.

Transfer Planning - Gameweek 33

Redefining the tiers based on their fixtures on GW33 as well as the fixtures leading up to GW33. Makes planning easier.

Fulham are the new darlings at the moment with a DGW, with the home game against Villa a real incentive of picking up the forgotten no.9. Man United also get a DGW here, sorry about the mistake in the 1 Apr article.

Tier 1 (Teams with confirmed DGW that you'd wanna invest in)
Ars (wba, NOR EVE)
Eve (tot, QPR ars)
Ful (new, avl CHE)
Mnu (MCI, stk whm)

Tier 2 (Team with confirmed DGW but chances are you wouldn't really touch based on form)
Whu (liv, sot MUN)

Tier 3 (Teams with none of their fixtures affected, but with a DGW later)
Mci (mun, WIG)
Wig (qpr, mci)
Che (SUN, ful)

Tier 4 (Teams with a single Gameweek, but no DGWs later)

Avl (stk, FUL)
Liv (WHM, rdg)
Sot (rdg, WHM)

New (FUL, SUN)
QPR (WIG, eve)
Rdg (SOT, LIV)
Sun (che, new)

Stk (AVL, MUN)
Nor (SWA, ars)

Tier 5 (Teams with blank GW33)
Swa (nor, -)
Wba (ARS, -)
Tot (EVE, -)

The Plan

(1) Sizing your Bench (GW33)
Instead of deciding on who to have for the DGWs, it's probably a lot easier to start your planning by setting "constraints" for youself and see where you'd go from here. Candidates for your bench ideally should be players who have a game this week, while having a DGW somewhere down the line (ideally tier 3).

With your bench set, you now have an idea of how much money you have left to spend on DGW players.

(2) How many DGW players (potentially) you should have
OK firstly, despite the justified hype over the DGW players and their potentially juicy fixtures, there are players that you can pick up/hold over the next couple of fixtures that will probably pay off as well. Say you are worried about not being able to afford Walcott back and you already have Caz, picking up a tier 3 player isn't too bad. Even certain Tier 4 players such as Liverpool players and Villa players who have (A) something to fight for and (B) decent fixtures to the end of the season. More on that later.

As mentioned in the last update, historically,

(1) Investment in elite attack is good
(2) Investment in budget attack is a mixed bag
(3) Investment in elite defense is a punt at this point, but a calculated risk nonetheless
(4) Investment in budget defense is very, very unlikely to give you anything back

(C) Recommendations
i) The recommendations I'll be making NOW will be based on things as they stand in terms of fixture difficulty, form and Fantasy squad depth, if possible.

Tier 1:(Arsenal, Everton, Fulham, Man Utd)

For the next 2 weeks, if you have a Tier 1 player, chances are you'd wanna play them every week from now up until GW33. A note of caution for the Everton offense though: without Fellaini and Pienaar until the short term (both are suspended until 13 Apr according to FPL) you might wanna bench any of your remaining Everton players (Baines or maybe Osman/Anichebe owners) for the Spurs fixture.

Conclusion:

1. BUY Arsenal, and Fulham offensive assets, (Walcott if he's fit, Cazorla, Giroud if you're feeling lucky, Berbatov)

2. HOLD Everton and United offensive/defensive assets. If you wanna buy, do nothing before GW32 and bring in the Everton/United player of your choice just before GW33. I will preach caution though, as overinvesting in Everton/United assets will certainly leave you attempting to let go of them due to the title being won by GW33/34, Everton having bad fixs etc. Personally I plan to have 3 from the 2 mentioned teams myself, and I plan to slowly remove these players first in place of DGW36 players.

3. HOLD Arsenal's defense for now. The price you pay for Arsenal's defensive assets really depends on your view of their returns. If you were really confident of Ars returns say, money spent on Monreal will be a really, really wise decision. If you were cautious and sceptical about it, Fabianski is a decent alternative (I think Robles alternates quite well with him until the end of the season).

Tier 2: West Ham (Carroll essentially)

OK I am aware that Tier 2 only has 1 team. Frankly right now, beyond Andy Carroll (who put in a decent stat performance last week btw) no one is worth even GLANCING at. 8.2 million is a HUGE price to pay for a DGW against 2 form sides offensively AND defensively. I'll pass on Carroll for now as his home form is the key indicator of him delivering. The Liverpool game will tell us more in terms of whether to pick him up or not. Also, there are equally good options for cheaper (Berba, Anichebe and even Giroud are cheaper)

An additional mention I have to make is for Demel and Jaask. Umm don't expect much, and if you're eyeing them I wouldn't move for them. DDG, Fabianski and their defenders are much, much better acquisitions and WHU literally have no reason to keep a CS. Don't expect Demel to luck out again.

Tier 3: Man City, Wigan, Chelsea

Let's look at these teams as, say, ALTERNATIVES to your attacking front 7. City and Chelsea have a decent few fixtures coming up (offensively at least) and you're also planning for the long term as well. Say you don't have enough cash for an "ideal" lineup of um,

Caz Walc Fellaini Pienaar (Bale)
RVP Roon Berba/Giroud

See how expensive that looks? Kone could be your alternative to Giroud. Tevez to your Rooney. Maybe even go light up front (RVP, Berba + Kone) and go Silva in the midfield with Caz Walc and Fellaini. If you're feeling punt-ish, Lampard is decent value if he starts. Anyway depending on what you pick up, I would rank having these players over selling Bale. Only pick up these players just before GW33 though. My point is that it's not too late to move for these players as early as pre-GW33.

Tier 4: A Lot of Teams

I'll keep this section as short as I can, but since most of us would have SOME investment in these teams already, I'd go beyond the obvious and either say "Keep XX, Sell XX or UP TO YOU".

Avl (stk, FUL)

• Benteke - Keep. He is as good as Tier 3, and he'd probably be a permanent fixture in your starting XI after GW33 anyway.
• everyone else - Sell

Liv (WHM, rdg)

• Suarez/Sturridge - Keep. Just like Benteke, fielding them v Reading isn't a bad idea. Their fixtures leading up to this DGW would probably also warrant you to keep them, and you'd drop them only pre-33 itself unless Suarez bites someone's ear against Ham or something.
• Gerrard/Coutinho - BUY, but only if you don't want Tier 3 midfielders for now. With Bale injured, one of these two midfielders will have pretty consistently good fixtures until the end of the season, and will probably play every game anyway. These midfielders will be very, very playable in GW33.
• Everyone else - Keep. Playable now, good fixtures, playable during GW33. Yea why not.

New (FUL, SUN)

• Sissoko/Cisse - Keep. If Sunderland capitulate under Di Canio, having a Newcastle offensive asset might be the real differential this GW. They'll (theoretically) be up there with Liverpool and Villa attackers.
• Everyone else - Sell. But only do so if you have sorted out your front 7 for GW33.

Nor (SWA, ars)

• Offense - Sell. Please.
• Defense - Keep/Bench. There will be better days. I"m sure you have a dirty secret in your defence like a Harte or a Pearce that you'd like to get rid of first anyway. If you don't, congratulations you don't have to do anything this week. 

QPR (WIG, eve)

• Remy/Townsend - Keep. I know they'd be absolutely useless in GW 33, but a game against WIG will definitely see them put up a decent fight. Even if you do want to get rid of them, wait for GW33. No rush. Not like you can dump them for spare cash anyway (Unless you're hiding a Samba in a very big closet somewhere).
• Everyone else - Sell.

Rdg (SOT, LIV)

• Everyone - Sell. Bad fixtures, No manager, you'd expect a performance out of them SOMETIME but when? It's about time you upgraded that Le Fondre/Guthrie/Pog/Pearce/Harte my dear friend. 

Sot (rdg, WHM)

• Everyone - Keep. I wonder how many people came across this article and kept their Southampton players. If you did, congrats and well done. For now, form and fixtures dictate a keep and you'd probably only want Lambert or Rodrigues if you're a bit short on funds going into GW33.

Sun (che, new)

• Everyone - Sell. For very obvious reasons. 

Stk (AVL, MNU)

• Bego/Wilson - Keep. I mean I'm sure you have bigger issues. Begobunn combo whores shouldn't have a real reason to worry though, if you wanna make a transfer for some reason either DON'T and save for next week, or just do something else. If you wanna shake up your keeper combo desperately, I'd target Robles but only after GW33. In your shoes I might even chase Jaaskelainen.

Tier 5: Bale + The Insignificant

Don't even think about bringing anyone else in yet. Your Lukakus and Michus can wait. Sell them, it's time to cash in on their attacking returns this week. Please.

As for Bale, I'd like to include a special point about him here. Bale's fixtures from now until his "supposed" return (which is tweeted by someone to be the City game) is EVE, blank, Man City. Over these 3-4 weeks, anticipate lots to sell Bale. If you bought him early, now is actually a pretty damn good time to sell him. You'd probably get Bale back after the DGW for Spurs is confirmed.

As for those who are wishing to hold on to Bale through his injury spell (because for some reason you have bigger issues, like umm, Torres?) would probably already have 4 midfielders raring to go (I can imagine people who let go of Walcott when he picked up his injury to be raising their hands here) and I see that as a reasonable move. Once again, just make sure you only have 1 offensive player benched. You don't wanna field 5 defenders by accident just because one of your attackers are rested.

Conclusion

Get Tier 1 players.

Sell the tier 5 first, sell Bale if you have other injured players too. Keep Bale if he's your only injury/rotation concern.

Look to the Tier 4 sections for Tier 4 decisions. Personally I'd prefer Tier 3 players.West Ham isn't bad, just be prepared to bench them forever after that. 

Transfer Planning - Gameweek 36

Wigan v Swansea creates a DGW for both teams here. I'll list all the fixtures here anyway with tiers so that we stick to the same format in interpreting DGW opportunity. I wouldn't really touch these until the City game is rescheduled, so don't expect much here beyond the template.

Tier 1 - Games where certain teams have DGWs (bolded teams would interest you)
West Brom v Wigan
Wigan v Swansea
Swansea v Man City

Tier 2 - The rest of the games. Do look out for replacement fixtures making in-law visits
Fulham v Reading
Liverpool v Everton
Man United v Chelsea
Norwich v Aston Villa
QPR v Arsenal
Sunderland v Stoke
Spurs v Southampton
West Ham v Newcasle

The Plan
I'm not very keen to elaborate on this part yet due to the potential of too many possible things happening between now and GW36, so I'll put this part on hold for now and talk about it more post-GW32 on the fixtures between then and 36.