DGW Planning, 24 March

Happy international break guys. It's a week before the games resume and I thought to myself that instead of doing chores, I might as well start making some recommendations, when to get them and what are the pros and cons of picking up said players.

Updates on DGWs and blanks can be found here. 

TL;DR - Since the last article, Fulham v Chelsea have appeared in GW33, implying a DGW for Fulham that Gameweek as well as a GUARANTEED fixture for Chelsea, with a DGW a possibility (similar to Man United).

The gist of this article will be planning for Gameweeks 33, and possibly Gameweek 36.

I'll also touch on what you should expect out of your Chelsea players since as I write this they have beaten Steaua Bucharest and are through to the next round of the Europa Cup.

This article will cut to the chase and I'll go straight to the strategies involved in tackling these Gameweeks. The tiers will also be automatically updated.

Cheslsea - GW31
An important point to make (at the moment) is that Chelsea play 4 games in 8 days. These 4 games include the 2 games on GW31 and GW32 where Chelsea play Southampton away and Sunderland at the Bridge. The following paragraph will show both sides of the coin in terms of owning/thinking of bringing in a Chelsea player.

The Cons: The word "Rafatation/Rafaultion" will scare quite few Chelsea players away from their suitors/transfer plans, which is understandable. No one likes their Mata or Hazard coming on for a 1 point cameo. On the other hand, the upside of all this is that

(A) Your Chelsea player would probably play 90 minutes both games and score anyway, and
(B) With Chelsea's replacement game against Fulham now rescheduled for GW33, your Chelsea investment will probably be for the long term. If your squad composition is optimal, you could even possibly, just possibly, have 1 Man United/Chelsea player only for GW33 while the other 6 outfield attackers could have DGW (Everton, Arsenal, and a punt in West Ham or a certain Bulgarian should do the trick here really).

With the pros and cons listed out, the conclusions are simple (Since they aren't at risk of a blank anymore):

1. Get Chelsea players at your own risk. Up to GW33, there are investments out there that are just as likely to provide offensive returns that you can dump FOR a Chelsea player later on anyway.
2. Once again, I will reiterate the strong backing I have in SAVING YOUR FREE TRANSFER. This is especially crucial as the Man United v Chelsea FA Cup game is almost immediately after GW31. This leaves you options to put your weight on Chelsea or Man United players. For those thinking of an RVP/Rooney combo for their squads currently, this would be the move I would suggest.

Transfer Planning - Gameweek 33

Redefining the tiers based on their fixtures on GW33 as well as the fixtures leading up to GW33. Makes planning easier.

Fulham are the new darlings at the moment with a DGW, with the home game against Villa a real incentive of picking up the forgotten no.9. Chelsea also get a DGW here, but this is subjected to change depending on the result of their FA Cup replay against Man United.

Tier 1 (Teams with confirmed DGW that you'd wanna invest in)
Ars (RDG, wba, NOR EVE)
Eve (STK, tot, QPR ars)
Ful (QPR, new, avl CHE)

Tier 2 (Team with confirmed DGW but chances are you wouldn't really touch based on form)
Whu (WBA, liv, sot MUN)

Tier 3 (Teams with a either a DGW or a normal GW depending on the result between Man United and Chelsea)
Mun (sun, MCI, stk whm)
Che (sot, SUN, TOT ful)

Note: Bolded fixture is the fixture cancelled if United or Chelsea WIN respectively)

Tier 4 (Teams with none of their fixtures affected)
Avl (LIV, stk, FUL)
Liv (avl, WHM, rdg)
Mci (NEW, mun, WIG)
New (mci, FUL, SUN)
Nor (wig, SWA, ars)
QPR (ful, WIG, eve)
Rdg (ars, SOT, LIV)
Sot (CHE, rdg, WHM)
Sun (MUN, che, new)
Wig (NOR, qpr, mci)

Tier 5 (Teams with a potential blank depending on FA Cup result)
Stk (eve, AVL, MUN) - Man United game is blank if Man United win
Tot (swa, EVE, che) - Chelsea game is blank if Chelsea win

Tier 6 (Teams with blank GW33)
Swa (TOT, nor, -)
Wba (whm, ARS, -)

The Plan

(A) Sizing your Bench (GW33)
i. Check how many people you have in tier 5 (Michu, Lukaku and Davies owners beware).
ii. If you're risk averse, count your Chelsea players.

(B) Your Magic Number: How many DGW players (potentially) you can have
Considering outfield players only, Mata, Walcott, and RVP owners will have a headstart already. With only 3 to 4 transfers between now and GW33, WITHOUT HITS you can potentially have 7-8 DGW players.

Your "Magic Number" should be 3 figures, due to this number being affected by the outcome of the FA Cup game between Man United and Chelsea. E.g. for my squad, my magic number is 4/5/5, which are my 3 free transfers + Walcott as the confirmed DGW player, with Mata+Walcott or RVP+Walcott having a DGW depending on results.

This is where optimising returns on this opportunity will polarize opinion: Based on experience alone, anyone who went full on offensive would've profited here. Those who tripled up on Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and even Sunderland (yes Sunderland!!) know what I mean. Defensively most have profited too, with Arsenal the only side not having a CS for their DGW (I had Gibbs for that DGW, and I am eternally grateful).

Having offensive assets from the supposed "weaker" DGW team are a mixed bag, however, with Reading (GW16) falling flat while the returns for Southampton (GW22), Swansea (GW27) came from the usual suspects while West Ham (GW23) had returns that weren't exactly consistent across the board. The defensive returns were even worse for the aforementioned teams: they only had 1 Clean sheet between them in those DGWs, which was Southampton's 1-0 away win against Villa.

So the writing is on the wall (or blog post) that full on investment in "Favourite" offensive (Ars, Eve) will most likely return something, with defensive investment in the favourites also quite likely to produce SOMETHING. If you're investing in the "underdog", offensive seems to be the way to go.

(C) Recommendations
i) The recommendations I'll be making NOW will be based on things as they stand in terms of fixture difficulty, form and Fantasy squad depth, if possible.

Tier 1:(Arsenal, Everton, Fulham)

For the next 3 weeks, if you have a Tier 1 player, chances are you'd wanna play them every week from now up until GW33. A note of caution for the Everton offense though: without Fellaini and Pienaar until the short term (both are suspended until 13 Apr according to FPL) you might wanna bench any of your remaining Everton players (Baines or maybe Osman/Anichebe owners) for the Spurs fixture.

Conclusion:

1. BUY Arsenal and Fulham offensive assets, (Walcott if he's fit, Cazorla, Giroud if you're feeling lucky, Berbatov)

2. HOLD Everton offensive/defensive assets. If you wanna buy, do nothing before GW32 and bring in the Everton player of your choice just before GW33.

3. CAUTIOUS BUY on Arsenal's defense now. GK not certain, CB pairing not certain either (although Mertesacker has started quite a few games on the trot now), Sagna's imminent return not good news for Jenkinson owners, Monreal quite expensive.

So with my "cautious buy" signal, what I mean is that if you are looking to buy, BUY NOW OR DON'T BUY AT ALL. Mert's not bad, and Monreal's a touch more expensive and has more attacking potential obviously. Just keep in mind that you're sacrificing a potential DGW asset in your front 7 for this transfer IN. I'd rather have a front 7 full of DGW players than 6 + 1 in defense squaring up against my Fellaini.

Tier 2: West Ham (Carroll essentially)

OK I am aware that Tier 2 only has 1 team. Frankly right now, beyond Andy Carroll (who put in a decent stat performance last week btw) no one is worth even GLANCING at. 8.2 million is a HUGE price to pay for a DGW against 2 form sides offensively AND defensively. The next 2 games (WBA, liv) also don't really encourage here, so I'll pass on Carroll, whether it's now or just before GW33, unless he improves in his 2 goals in the last 5. There are equally good options for cheaper (Berba, Anichebe and even Giroud are cheaper)

Tier 3: Man United, Chelsea

Man United and Chelsea players a bit tricky. How you deal with the risks are up to you really. If you own any Man United or Chelsea players now, I really don't see any reason for letting them go, unless you're cautious of Rafa Benitez's rotation policy (which is completely understandable btw). The number of players in this tier to have comes down to whether you're benching or playing them.

With only 1 transfer between now and United's fixture against Chelsea, I'd actually suggest to NOT DO ANYTHING to your Man United and Chelsea players until that game is played out. I'm aware that some will be concerned that their Chelsea player won't player, so you'll have to weigh the risk between your Chelsea player coming on for a 1 point cameo, or letting him go and having a DGW later on because they lose to United due to a bad rotation policy or something.

Tier 4: A Lot of Teams

I'll keep this section as short as I can, but since most of us would have SOME investment in these teams already, I'd go beyond the obvious and either say "Keep XX, Sell XX or UP TO YOU".

Avl (LIV, stk, FUL)

• Benteke/Weimann - Up to you. If you're not going 7 offensive DGWers, you can field them v Fulham.
• everyone else - Sell

Liv (avl, WHM, rdg)

• Suarez/Sturridge - Keep. Just like Benteke, fielding them v Reading isn't a bad idea. Their fixtures leading up to this DGW would probably also warrant you to keep them, and you'd drop them only pre-33 itself unless Suarez bites someone's ear against Villa or something.
• Everyone else - Keep. Playable now, good fixtures, benchable during GW33. Yea why not.

Mci (NEW, mun, WIG)

• Offensive assets - Sell. There are better options. You can give them one last hurrah v Newcastle and then sell for Giroud or Berbatov or something, but I'm quite sure you would rather have a Cazorla rather than a Silva, or a Berbatov rather than a Dzeko/Tevez come GW33.
• Defensive assets - Up to you. Personally I have no idea what will happen between now and the finish line with City's defense, so it's anyone's call at the moment. 

New (mci, FUL, SUN)

• Sissoko/Cisse - Up to you. I mean fielding them versus Sunderland isn't bad, especially when derbies historically have goals (the last game between them ended 1-1). Personally there are better, so unless you have bigger fish to catch, get rid of them.
• Everyone else - Keep. Surprising I know, but I see possible CS against Fulham and Sunderland (hypocritical I know) but for the money you have put in, you'd probably want your 5m-odd investment to play through the GOOD fixtures (unless someone is shrewd enough to pick up Steven Taylor).

Nor (wig, SWA, ars)

• Everyone - Sell/Bench. Norwich probably have played through their "favourable" spell of fixtures and are now running into Champions League side Wigan and Champions League chasers Swansea and Arsenal :P I'd steer clear in investment here at all FOR NOW. There will be better days I promise. 

QPR (ful, WIG, eve)

• Remy/Townsend - Keep. I know they'd be absolutely useless in GW 33, but games against ful and WIG will definitely see them put up a decent fight. Even if you do want to get rid of them, wait for GW33. No rush. Not like you can dump them for spare cash anyway (Unless you're hiding a Samba in a very big closet somewhere).
• Everyone else - Sell.

Rdg (ars, SOT, LIV)

• Everyone - Sell. Bad fixtures, No manager, you'd expect a performance out of them SOMETIME but when? It's about time you upgraded that Le Fondre/Guthrie my dear friend. 

Sot (CHE, rdg, WHM)

• Everyone - Keep. Just like QPR, you don't have to sell them NOW. Those sitting on a Lambert profit will probably be reminded of the time Chelsea tried to be a big bad wolf at the Bridge and Southampton nearly spanked them for it. Playing them against West Ham isn't a bad idea either. My Clyne is itching for action already.

Sun (MUN, che, new)

• Everyone - Sell/Bench. Having a Sunderland player from GW31 onwards is like telling people you still have your Pokemon cards from childhood for "sentimental" reasons. Check out my Charizard yo. 

Wig (NOR, qpr, mci)

• Maloney/Kone/Di Santo - Keep. After beating Everton and Newcastle, I'm pretty sure that Norwich and QPR are ready to outgun Wigan rather than keep them out. Field them when you can, and when City rolls around, you can play them anyway and watch Wigan win 1-0 from a Maloney curler from just outside the box (I'm still a bit annoyed by that goal btw)
• Everyone else - Sell. Unless you're a big Figueroa fan.

Tier 5+6: Bale + The Insignificant

The possibility of Gareth Bale facing a blank is actually puzzling quite a few Fantasy managers. Cash in on the profit and watch him smash Swansea, Everton and Chelsea? Or sit on him and watch Spurs lose 4th place to Arsenal and Chelsea again? 

Think that stats will resolve the argument here. Bale's 3 Key Passes and 4 attempts (1 on target in the box) against Fulham AT HOME would suggest a slight, slight regression in what he should be producing. But just like what Benteke means to Villa, Bale is still getting lion's share of Spurs' chances, and we'd probably put him on MONITOR for now and see what he does against Everton before deciding on who's head our axes should fall on. 

Don't even think about bringing anyone else in yet. Your Lukakus and Michus can wait. 

Conclusion

Get Tier 1 players. Sell the tier 5 + 6s first (bar Bale). Look to the Tier 4 sections for Tier 4 decisions. If you're out of Tier 4 + 5 players, chill until the FA Cup replay is played. I'll speak more on that next time. 

Transfer Planning - Gameweek 36

Wigan v Swansea creates a DGW for both teams here. I'll list all the fixtures here anyway with tiers so that we stick to the same format in interpreting DGW opportunity.

Tier 1 - Games where certain teams have DGWs (bolded teams would interest you)
West Brom v Wigan
Wigan v Swansea
Swansea v Man City

Tier 2 - The rest of the games. Do look out for replacement fixtures making in-law visits
Fulham v Reading
Liverpool v Everton
Man United v Chelsea
Norwich v Aston Villa
QPR v Arsenal
Sunderland v Stoke
Spurs v Southampton
West Ham v Newcasle

The Plan
I'm not very keen to elaborate on this part yet due to the potential of too many possible things happening between now and GW36, so I'll put this part on hold for now and talk about it more post-international break.