Thursday 14 March 2013

DGW Planning - 15March (Will be Updating Together With CocoBomb's news)

Don't ask what level of Candy Crush I'm on.

Updates on DGWs and blanks can be found here. 

TL;DR - Since the last article, City v Wigan has been moved to GW33, while City v West Brom has not been rescheduled. Wigan v Swansea also have officially appeared at GW36.

The gist of this article will be planning for Gameweeks 33, and possibly Gameweek 36.

I'll also touch on what you should expect out of your Chelsea players since as I write this they have beaten Steaua Bucharest and are through to the next round of the Europa Cup.

This article will cut to the chase and I'll go straight to the strategies involved in tackling these Gameweeks. The tiers will also be automatically updated.

Cheslsea - GW31
An important point to make (at the moment) is that as highlighted in Coco's fixture update, Chelsea play 4 games in 8 days. These 4 games include the 2 games on GW31 and GW32 where Chelsea play Southampton away and Sunderland at the Bridge. The following paragraph will show both sides of the coin in terms of owning/thinking of bringing in a Chelsea player.

The Cons: The word "Rafatation/Rafaultion" will scare quite few Chelsea players away from their suitors/transfer plans, which is understandable. No one likes their Mata or Hazard coming on for a 1 point cameo. On the other hand, the upside of all this is that

(A) Your Chelsea player would probably play 90 minutes both games and score anyway, and
(B) With Chelsea's replacement game against Fulham yet to resurface and Chelsea v Spurs potentially being a blank, your Chelsea players are likely to have 2 DGWs after GW33 and you have a head start in getting 3 Chelsea players.

So since you can (potentially) make 1/2 transfers between now and GW31, first thing you should do is obviously a head count of your Chelsea players. If your bench is weak (like if you have a Harte/Guthrie/Le Fondre lying around somewhere), aim to have 1 Chelsea player at the moment, or even none if you're pessimistic about your player's playing chances.

If your bench is strong however (like say having a front 8 like this) you would probably put priority on benching your Chelsea player for GW32, since you'd expect the fringe players to be playing after their Europa Quarterfinal game. This is my interpretation of the Chelsea lineup for that period anyway, chances are this article would be updated AGAIN over the international break when we have more info on potentially rested players.

Conclusion: Try your best to save your FT this week. Move for a Chelsea player only if you can afford to bench him or expect a 1 pointer in either Gameweek 31 or Gameweek 32. You decide on the risk. Remember, there are 1 and a half weeks in between GW30 and GW31.

Transfer Planning - Gameweek 33

So the difference between this Gameweek and the last is that a new tier has been formed. Hooray. Wigan also have a game now (although they play City), while Swansea and West Brom are the only teams with blanks.

West Ham becomes the new team with a DGW, although 2 away games might actually deter you from any investment there (anyone with Demel/O'Brien should not be optimistic here). Man United also get a DGW here, but this is subjected change depending on the result of their FA Cup replay against Chelsea. Got a feeling here that everyone will be rooting for Chelsea in this one.

Tier 1 (Games where CONFIRMED DGWs are concerned, try and get bolded teams)
Ars v Eve
Ars v Nor
Eve v QPR

Tier 2 (Games with DGWs but with a chance of being just a Single GW, avoid bolded teams FOR NOW until FA Cup replay is played)
Whu v Mnu
Sto v Mnu  - the game at risk (not confirmed)

Tier 3 (Games with no risk of cancellation so far)
Rdg v Liv
Avl v Ful
Sou v Whu
New v Sun
Mci v Wig

Tier 4 (Games with risk of cancellation depending on FA Cup Replay result)
Che v Tot

Tier 5 (Games that have been moved, avoid bolded teams)
(Mci v Wba)
(Wig v Swa)

The Plan

(A) Sizing your Bench (GW33)
i. Check how many people you have in tier 5 (Michu, Lukaku and Davies owners beware).
ii. Add that to the number of tier 4 players you have (Bale, Mata/Haz/Lamps, Chelsea defender owners should look out here).

(B) Recommendations
i) Try your best NOT to do anything this week.

If you wanna move for an Arsenal player, you can wait. Arsenal players are cheap, and I'm not quite sure who you'd want to move for beyond Walcott though. For those who don't have him the decision is quite straight-forward of course, but for those who do, you might as well do a blank and wait for the international break to pass before making any real moves.

If you wanna move for a Man United player (I know a few people that are thinking of getting RVP back after selling him for the GW29 blank), do so ONLY if you can field 11 based on part (A) above. Reading at Old Trafford is tempting, but at least delay that decision until Friday night or Saturday morning. Wait for the Fergie presser or something.

Not much to say about Everton either. Fellaini's on 9 yellows so he's attractive and a big risk. Baines will always be there, but moving FOR the Blue Elephant at this point of time is, umm, risky. The real gem (potentially) here is Kevin Mirallas,  for those who desperately need to catch a rival. He'll be a decent pickup just before GW31 probably, the game against Chelsea is probably a real test of whether Mirallas will get 90 minutes or not. Oh Pienaar's also in the mix too, but the midfield surely would be crammed with DGW players by then.

ii) If you HAVE to make a transfer (like say if you have 2FT), I'd recommend doing the following (1 being highest priority):

1. Sell a tier 5 player (optimists can keep Michu v Arsenal and then Spurs, but it's about time you cashed in on the Davies profit. Move for a Tier 1 (Ars) or Tier 2 (Mnu) bolded player. 

2. In case you can't afford a Tier 1/Tier 2 player (I just realised that Ars and Mnu defs are actually quite a stretch away bar Sagna), move for a Tier 3 player. PERSONALLY among the cheap players, Southampton's and Newcastle's defense stand out (I have Clyne and Sissoko myself), but you might as well make a long term investment here and pick up a Wigan player.

Final Note:
Do keep in mind that the plan here is based on a "no hit" constraint. If you guys intend to take hits in getting players back, there are WAY too many permutations to go through at the moment, and I'd probably only do so when I have more time to write over the weekend before the games.

Transfer Planning - Gameweek 36

Wigan v Swansea creates a DGW for both teams here. I'll list all the fixtures here anyway with tiers so that we stick to the same format in interpreting DGW opportunity.

Tier 1 - Games where certain teams have DGWs (bolded teams would interest you)
West Brom v Wigan
Wigan v Swansea
Swansea v Man City

Tier 2 - The rest of the games. Do look out for replacement fixtures making in-law visits
Fulham v Reading
Liverpool v Everton
Man United v Chelsea
Norwich v Aston Villa
QPR v Arsenal
Sunderland v Stoke
Spurs v Southampton
West Ham v Newcasle

The Plan
I'm not very keen to elaborate on this part yet due to the potential of too many possible things happening between now and GW36, so I'll put this part on hold for now and talk about it more post-international break.

4 comments:

  1. Re Tier 2 - Stoke do not have a DGW and may not have a fixture at all, so why the recommendation to transfer in their players?

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    Replies
    1. You are right. I should be more specific. Amended. Thanks for the feedback.

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    2. :-) Very useful article - cheers. Still none the wiser on what to do short term though LOL. Need all the DGW's on the table to make it easier. I am thinking of just using transfers to free up cash, so I can move for the players I want.

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  2. That is a decent move. Will touch on that today since Chelsea are through to the next round of the Europa League

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