Wednesday 19 December 2012

GW 17: The Watchlist

Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW16):

Watchlist 1: Vertonghen, Snodgrass, Berbatov, Benteke

Watchlist 2: Torres, Gervinho



Player
Price
Minutes
Key Passes
Shots
Shots in Box
Shots on Target
Assists
Goals
Sunderland 3 Reading 0
Fletcher
7.2
96
3
3
3
1
0
1
McClean
5.8
96
2
4
3
3
0
1
Sessegnon
7.6
96
3
5
2
2
1
1
Hunt
4.7
96
3
4
4
2
0
0
Shorey
4.2
96
4
3
0
1
0
0
Newcastle 1 Man City 3
Ba
8.2
94
1
6
3
2
0
1
Silva
9.4
94
8
0
0
0
1
0
Aguero
11.0
94
0
5
4
1
0
1
Tevez
9.4
79
1
5
3
3
0
0
Liverpool 1 Aston Villa 3
Johnson (Glen)
6.4
94
4
4
0
0
1
0
Suarez
10.3
94
4
7
4
1
0
0
Benteke
6.6
94
4
3
2
3
1
2
Weimann
5.2
92
1
4
2
2
0
1
Man United 3 Sunderland 1
Rooney
12.0
94
3
4
4
1
0
1
RVP
13.8
94
4
4
4
2
1
1
Sessegnon
7.5
94
4
4
3
2
1
0
Young
8.2
94
1
2
2
1
0
0
Norwich 2 Wigan 1
Player
Price
Minutes
K.Pass
Shots
S.i.Box
Target
Assists
Goals
Pilkington
5.7
94
1
4
4
2
1
1
Snodgrass
6.0
96
3
3
2
2
0
0
Kone
6.5
96
2
3
3
0
1
0
QPR 2 Fulham 1
Taarabt
5.6
95
1
7
0
3
0
2
Mackie
5.1
95
1
3
3
0
1
0
Cisse
5.9
94
3
8
5
3
0
0
Faurlin
4.7
95
5
0
0
0
1
0
Stoke 1 Everton 1
Jones (Stoke)
5.0
77
0
4
3
2
0
1
Baines
7.5
94
5
0
0
0
0
0
Tottenham 1 Swansea 0
Vertonghen
6.3
99
0
5
3
1
0
1
Walker (Kyle)
6.1
99
6
3
1
1
0
0
Lennon
7.0
99
3
2
1
1
0
0
Adebayor
9.0
72
3
4
2
1
0
0
Defoe
8.5
99
4
6
3
2
0
0
West Brom 0 West Ham 0
Brunt
5.5
95
5
3
0
1
0
0
Morrison
6.1
95
3
5
3
0
0
0
Cole
4.9
95
1
3
1
2
0
0
Reading 2 Arsenal 5
Gibbs
5.4
93
3
2
2
0
2
0
Cazorla
9.6
83
6
5
3
4
1
3
Ox-Cham.
7.2
74
4
4
3
2
0
0
Walcott
8.5
85
1
7
5
3
0
1
Wilshere
6.4
93
3
1
1
0
0
0
Podolski
8.2
93
4
5
4
1
2
1


Top Shooters:

Walcott, Podolski, Vertonghen, Jones (Stoke), Aguero, Tevez, Ba, Weimann, Pilkington

I. WHAT. I wish I could label this week as the week of exaggerated figures, because this week's stats are off the chart, quite literally. We can finally tick off the likes of McCarthy, Graham, Osman and Michu, but new shooters seem to be emerging and sadly not many differentials beyond Adel "Billy the Kid" Taarabt. Perhaps in the top All-Rounders we'll find more value.

Top Creators:

Brunt, Baines, Walker, Shorey, Silva, Faurlin

The elite options

As for the creators, only David Silva stands out at the moment, but with Gareth Bale's imminent return, it is goals that are worth more value than assists, and out of the in-form "elite midfielder" at the moment, Cazorla's all-rounder stats and Bale's perennial crosser/shooter stats will probably eclipse Silva as an elite option. Juan Mata is also waiting in the wings to trump Silva, but all will be revealed in a week's time.

The Emerging Defenders

What IS encouraging, however, is the fact that half of our "Creators" this week are DEFENDERS. Expensive options Baines and Walker are starting to show consistent value that continues to be ignored, and while Baines needs to be an al-rounder to justify his price tag, Kyle Walker will be a very, very good differential to Glen Johnson if Spurs continue to play the way they play.

Top All Rounders:


Tier 1: Cazorla, Morrison(West Brom), Defoe, Suarez, Benteke

Tier 2: Cisse, Snodgrass, Kone, McClean, Sessegnon, Hunt, Glen Johnson, Podolski

To be Given Verdict: 

All-Rounders: Morrison, Benteke, Cisse, Snodgrass, Kone, Sessegnon, Hunt, Glen Johnson, Podolski

Shooters/Creators: Brunt, Walker, Shorey, Tevez, Pilkington

Morrison
Firstly, the allure. For his price, he's putting in decent stats. However, with Mulumbu out, there is speculation that Morrison will be playing deeper, and we'll examine his stats and positioning come next game. Not on Watchlist

Cisse
QPR's first win highlighted who the main beneficiaries of that win in terms of FPL points. While Taarabt took the headlines, Cisse quietly put in stats that were staggering, especially considering the fact that Taarabt had 7 goes at goal himself. Since this is QPR's first win, we will (unfortunately) have to monitor Cisse for now, but if QPR pick up form, I'm picking him up straight away since Taarabt will be heading to ACON. Watchlist 2

Benteke
Now I know that Benteke has been on my watchlist 1 and I am sincerely very proud of that, but there is a major factor that is holding me back from buying him Paul Lambert has demonstrated his tactical acumen by beating Liverpool with a 5-3-2 formation and a very energetic counterattacking strategy. I'm not sure whether Lambert will persist with this for Benteke to benefit from this. Nevertheless, Benteke is a handy pick for better opposition, especially if Lambert chooses this formation again. Until then, I'm staying away. Watchlist 1

Snodgrass
Underlying stats don't lie. For a relatively "easy" fixture, Snodgrass didn't manage to get into the points but registered 2 attempts on target, as well as created key passes from open play and crosses/corners. It's a shame that his fixtures don't looks enticing, but I'll keep him penned in for the Jan WC and will closely monitor him just in case he "delivers" against the likes of Chelsea. Watchlist 1

Brunt
Chris Brunt's stats would actually have been really, really useful if Sean Morrison or Peter Crouch were his teammate in the box. Brunt's key passes this game have ALL been from corners, In open play he's been very active as well, in fact his passing pattern has been more "spread out" compared to last week, which deserves to be monitored because of the "prophesized" tactical switch of Morrison replacing Mulumbu in the middle.. Watchlist 2

Sessegnon
Stephane Sessegnon is the perfect example of fear/hype-driven decision making. After examining his stats in the Reading and the United game, Sessegnon, by principle is a player worth keeping. His stats are picking up, his orders in the game are consistent (cut inside and shoot) which he executes decently well. If you have him I'd keep him for a bit longer, not like there are THAT many 7.0 midfielders out there catching fire. Watchlist 1

Hunt
I did not have him here for the sake of having him here, but before we all go "OMG READING" Let us at least figure out how he coughed up 3 key passes and 4 shots in the box against Sunderland. Primarily operating on the flanks, Noel Hunt actually had 2 key passes through crosses, which suggests that if McDermott switches to 4-4-2, Shorey and Hunt actually share the same number of crosses in open play.

Won't have him on the watchlist for now, but IF Reading miraculously get results and I want a really expensive Blue Elephant in my backline again, I have something to consider for my third forward choice. Not On Watchlist


Glen Johnson
There was an article on Villa v Liverpool that suggested Glen Johnson and Downing were afforded a lot of space as a result of Villa's counterattacking setup. Glen Johnson was afforded 4 pops at goal, combined with 6 crosses. He didn't do much with them then, but Johnson's ability is certainly unquestioned and I'll be monitoring his stats for the next game if Liverpool do get their game back on. Watchlist 2


Podolski
Podolski's stats were not spectacular, and perhaps I was more alarmed at how Reading spread their legs wider than Southampton. Wouldn't be too keen on Podolski now, but one more game like this and I'd consider. Watchlist 2



Walker
Now I watched the full game for Spurs v Swansea, and the common theme played into both teams' hands really: Spurs' generated their best chances by robbing Swansea high up the pitch, and Swansea frustrated Spurs the most when defending deep. Intriguingly, with such a theme Kyle Walker and Kyle Naughton on the other flank obviously were encouraged into the game, attempting 10 crosses out of Spurs' combined 21 crosses. With 4 of those key passes being key passes, I wouldn't be surprised if Kyle Walker outshines his teammate Jan Vertonghen, who only looked dangerous at set pieces since moving to CB. Watchlist 1


Shorey
Let's start with the facts: Shorey did well against Sunderland but drew a blank against Arsenal. Although he did put in a couple of crosses through corners, he's certainly labelled as a benchwarmer/flat track bully against weaker sides, and based on fixtures alone, Shorey's just not playable for the next 6-7 Gameweeks. Not On Watchlist


Tevez
Carlito has split opinion recently between FPL managers. The tradeoff between a guaranteed full game and his huge slice of pie in City's attacking returns is still a quandary at least mentioned in passing week after week. Fortunately, the alternatives at his price range (or lower) are delivering almost as consistently as him, and thus many have sought solace in the likes of Defoe, Ba and Berbatov. Based on his production, I'd buy him if I had the money, but (for December at least) fixtures are kinder on RVP and Suarez, so he's residing on my watchlist 2 for now. Watchlist 2


Pilkington
Anthony Pilkington being deployed on the left recently probably has gone unnoticed by most FPL managers, considering that Chris Hughton has interchanged his wingers so often that even Andrew Surman has played left wing, with mixed results.

I shall put up Pilkington's vital stats here and I'll have my interpretation of it, but your opinion on it is as good as mine at the moment because it's quite ambiguous: 4 attempts at goal, 4 crosses attempted, 2 from corners. He is quite literally, an orthodox winger who shoots at goal. He's a good alternative to Snodgrass if you feel 6.0 is too much to pay for a Norwich player, but I'll have to watch a few more games before actually picking him up. Watchlist 2

Conclusion:

Wishlist:

Watchlist 1: Cazorla, Walker, Sessegnon, Snodgrass, Benteke

Watchlist 2: Torres, Pilkington, Tevez, Podolski, Glen Johnson, Brunt, Cisse

Watchlist Changes: Gervinho and Berbatov drop off the Watchlist for now for obvious reasons. Unfortunately after going through the stats, no one goes up to the wishlist just yet, but Benteke, Cazorla and Walker are coming pretty damn close.

On the bottom end, I'm hoping that Tevez gives me a good excuse to be upgraded as my third forward so that I can invest in a cheapo such as Brunt or Pilkington. Happy shopping.


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