Wednesday 19 December 2012

GW17: The Verdict


Rafael came in this week because, well, he's an attacking defender. I wanted my stats to make more sense because I'm projecting 6 points for clean sheets and I don't know why. But FPL works that way and it rewards SOME degree of randomness, so I might sort that out in the future. ONWARD




The Verdict is about analysis of my players based on their score, combined with their underlying stats from a particular Gameweek. More explanation to follow.

This section was actually quite tricky to make because players brought in have expectations about them, highlighted by their projected score. Since this is part of the personal record, there will be 2 tables to deliver the verdict on these players. The first table will be the underlying stats for each player based on their individual games.

Based on these stats, their actual score is compared to their projected score.

Projected Score
Actual Score
Stats
Verdict
Good
Good
Good
Deliver
Good
Bad
Good
Unlucky
Good
Good
Bad
Lucky
Good
Bad
Bad
Flop
Bad
Good
Good
Gem
Bad
Bad
Good
Unlucky
Bad
Good
Bad
Lucky
Bad
Bad
Bad
Expected


The rule I guess, is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player
Price
Minutes
Key Passes
Shots
Shots in the box
Shots on Target
Assists
Goals
Enrique
5.9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gibbs
5.4
93
3
2
2
0
2
0
Rafael
6.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nolan
6.8
95
0
2
2
0
0
0
Michu
8.1
99
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fellaini
7.9
94
0
0
0
0
0
0
Silva
9.4
94
8
0
0
0
1
0
Suarez
10.3
94
4
7
4
1
0
0
Defoe
8.5
99
4
6
3
2
0
0
RVP
13.8
94
4
4
4
2
1
1
Puncheon
4.6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wilkinson
4.4
94
1
0
0
0
0
0
Cameron
4.8
94
0
0
0
0
0
0

Player
Projected Score
Actual Score
Stats
Verdict
Begovic
2
1
N/A
N/A
Enrique
6
0
Injured
Injured
Gibbs
6
7
Bad
Lucky
Rafael
6
0
Injured
Injured
Nolan
2 (4)
2
Bad
Expected
Michu
2 (4)
1
Bad
Expected
Fellaini
2 (4)
2
Bad
Expected
Silva
5
6
Good
Deliver
Suarez
6
1
Good
Unlucky
Defoe
2 (4)
1
Good
Unlucky
RVP
6
12
Good 
Deliver 
Krul
1
2
N/A
N/A
Puncheon
0
0
N/A
Not Playing
Wilkinson
2
2
Bad
Expected
Cameron
2
2
Bad
Expected

Delivers: RVP

Unlucky: Suarez, Defoe

Lucky: -

Expecteds: Nolan, Michu, Fellaini, Wilkinson, Cameron

Flops: -

Not Playing/Injured: Puncheon, Enrique, Rafael

Conclusion: No Flops. Yay. But no delivers either. A mediocre week with my captain choice (RVP) balancing out with my injuries (Enrique and Rafael) would suggest that I now have an injury crisis instead of a "flop" crisis. Time for more window shopping...

On the point of the wild punt mentioned in the Projections, Rooney, Snodgrass, Baker, Bunn and Vertonghen scored 30 points altogether. Krul, Silva, Wilko, Cameron and Defoe altogether hit 13 points, so 13 against 30 (-20) made the punt relatively ineffective... Lesson learnt here that not even 2 good punts can justify randomly taking hits.

I'm actually getting quite worried over 2 things that are affecting my transfer plans: 1) Liverpool conceding 3 at home despite only missing Enrique, and 2) Rafael being a rotation risk and not having enough back up. I was completely aware of what I signed up for when I signed Rafael, but I just didn't expect the injury to happen THIS soon.

To monitor: Rafael & Enrique's Injury. 

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