Wednesday 12 December 2012

GW16: The Watchlist

New piece! Seems like I am bringing on too much, but I at least would like to try. The purpose of the Watchlist is to pinpoint "outstanding performers" from each game individually, and then put them on the "Watchlist" literally. Hopefully this will also provide me consistent signals on who to bring in. This will definitely be added to the "Big Picture" later.


Player
Price
Minutes
Key Passes
Shots
Shots in Box
Shots on Target
Assists
Goals
Man City v Man United
Silva
9.4
97
1
3
3
3
0
0
Tevez
9.4
45
1
5
4
2
2
0
RVP
13.8
97
0
5
2
1
0
1
Aguero
11
97
4
2
1
1
0
0
Everton v Tottenham
Baines
7.5
96
4
2
0
0
0
0
Osman
6.3
81
1
5
4
1
0
0
Pienaar
6.5
96
3
3
2
1
0
1
Fellaini
7.8
96
1
3
2
1
0
0
Vertonghen
6.3
96
2
3
2
2
0
0
West Ham v Liverpool
Taylor (Matthew)
4.7
86
1
4
2
2
0
0
Sterling
5.7
97
1
4
3
1
1
0
Shelvey
5.2
97
1
3
2
0
0
1
Downing
5.7
97
3
2
1
0
0
0
Sunderland v Chelsea
Wickham
5
95
2
2
1
1
0
0
Johnson(Adam)
6.9
95
0
2
1
2
0
1
Torres
9.4
95
0
4
4
3
0
2
Mata
9.5
95
2
1
1
1
0
1
Arsenal v West Brom
Arteta
7.7
95
1
3
2
2
0
2
Wilshere
6.4
95
4
2
2
0
0
0
Gervinho
7
81
1
4
4
1
0
0
Brunt
5.5
95
5
1
1
0
0
0
Villa v Stoke
Benteke
6.5
94
2
4
4
1
0
0
Swansea v Norwich
De Guzman
5.7
95
3
2
1
1
1
1
Michu
7.9
95
1
8
6
2
0
2
Graham
5.4
69
0
4
4
1
0
0
Snodgrass
5.8
95
4
3
2
3
2
1
Southampton v Reading
Puncheon
4.6
93
0
4
2
2
0
1
Lambert
6.1
93
5
3
2
1
0
0
Robson-Kanu
4.4
77
2
2
2
1
0
0
Wigan v QPR
Gomez
5.2
95
2
4
1
1
0
0
McCarthy 
4.8
95
1
4
3
3
0
2
Fulham v Newcastle
Duff
6.1
94
5
0
0
0
2
0
Sidwell
5.1
94
2
3
3
2
0
1
Berbatov
7.4
94
4
4
3
2
0
0
Rodallega
5.5
87
2
3
2
2
0
1
Anita
4.6
86
2
4
1
0
1
0
Ba
8.2
94
0
5
3
2
0
0

Top Shooters:

Michu, Osman, Tevez, Benteke, Torres, Gervinho, Silva, Graham, McCarthy

While this list has the usual culprits (Michu, Tevez, Ba) it's good to see that there are budget differentials that are firing despite not producing in both midfield and attack (Graham, Benteke, Osman).

Top Creators:

Brunt, Lambert, Aguero, Baines, Wilshere, Snodgrass, Duff

This list is actually quite surprising this week, and it's heartening to see Baines still having some upside. Surprises are usually shot-happy Lambert and Snodgrass making more key passes than ever. Chris Brunt stands out amongst an underperforming West Brom, which might be a key differential in the coming weeks if he gets the minutes. Damien Duff also had a good game, which shows that the partnership of Riether and Duff on Fulham's right hopefully will be similar to Valencia and Rafael.

Top All Rounders:

Tier 1: Berbatov, Snodgrass, Vertonghen

Tier 2: Rodallega, Sidwell, Anita, Lambert, Pienaar, Robson-Kanu, Wilshere

This list would be the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks. The Tier 1 All Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

The Watchlist Filter:

Rules are simple. Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Shooters and top 3 Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective system, and to make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not. I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well, so that my expectations in the coming weeks of them wouldn't be too high.

Watchlist:

Berbatov, Snodgrass, Vertonghen

Shooters/Creators: Torres, Gervinho, Benteke, McCarthy, Brunt, Duff, Wilshere

Torres
a S/SiB/SoT of 4/4/3 is fantastic, but will wait one more game for consistency. Wanna see the effects of the Club World Cup on Chelsea before making decisions. Watchlist 2

Gervinho
a 4/4/1 isn't bad considering they weren't from a particular side. What's interesting to note is that Gervinho still made the majority of his passes on the left, so I will have to do a replay check to see whether he took his chances from crosses or just set pieces. Watchlist 2

Benteke
4/4/1 in a 0-0 draw is encouraging for Benteke, I'd probably include him in my Watchlist without hesitating. Still, passes and heat maps show that he operates mainly outside the box, but his chances are all in the box, which suggest that he's usually at the end of crosses or counterattacks. However, his aerial duels won were all outside the box, so this suggests that he is either A) forming a decent partnership with another player (Agbonlahor did create a shot for him) or a particular midfielder is starting to grow as well (Brett Holman had 2 key passes to him). Watchlist 1

McCarthy
McCarthy's case is a curious one because his passing pattern is of an "orthodox" central midfielder in a 3-4-3 system. Wigan themselves are a very interesting team to watch and as I do recall, McCarthy's first was from a set piece and his other was from a good cutback from Beausejour, which suggest that Wigan can play the wide game, but I wouldn't be counting on McCarthy's returns to remain this consistent (especially when there were 3 others to aim at). Not on Watchlist

Brunt
On to the creators. Chris Brunt's passing has "always been there", but his passing pattern is pretty consistent: His passes within his own half are short, but once he passes the halfway he has the tendency to make long diagonals to the right (presumably towards Rosenburg) but I wouldn't include him in the Watchlist because 1) his long passes are likely to be assists to the assister and 2) His minutes are not guaranteed. Not on Watchlist

Duff
Damien Duff was a busy, busy man. Spending the first half on the right, he did come up with 3 key passes (all from crosses) and it just shows that he has that quality. It's just a shame that he doesn't get into enough goal-scoring positions, and he faded away after switching to the left in the second half. Worth getting if his positioning remains constant, but as a 5th midfielder there are better options now. Not on Watchlist

Wilshere
Personally I'm a huge fan of Jack Wilshere. He's one of the few technically sound Englishmen with decent game sense, and it's just sad to see him forced to do so much so soon for Arsenal.

Right, stats. The all action midfielder has good "secondary stats" to back up his primary ones: Winning 5 out of 8 take-ons (3/5 in the final third), he didn't put in many crosses (2) but his passing was central and consistent. With opponents Mulumbu and Yacob holding the center however, Wilshere's "vertical" central passes in the final third were mostly misses and his key passes were the short ones, all generating chances from outside the box.

He does have the habit of playing passes down the left as one-twos (which was also the source of one of his other key passes), I'm just hoping that he does it more consistently. So as for now he's a monitor, but I won't be too excited unless we get an encore. And better vertical passes in the final third. Not On Watchlist

Conclusion:

Watchlist 1: Vertonghen, Snodgrass, Berbatov, Benteke

Watchlist 2: Torres, Gervinho

Good list, considering their fixtures. A lot of decent differentials in there, and I do have players I intend to ship (Nolan, Defoe and Wilkinson) for decent differentials. Hope this works.

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