Swansea: The Pablo effect

An astute observation was made recently, bringing about the notion that Michu garners less points with Pablo Hernandez in the side. After some digging there are stats that indicate the difference in STYLE of Swansea's play, but in this article I'll attempt to analyse Pablo's effect on Swansea as comprehensibly as possible:


Introduction - The Case Study

Firstly, the basic facts. Arriving in Gameweek 4, Pablo Hernandez initially made cameo appearances and he got more minutes as Swansea attempted to halt their losing streak.

The turning point for Pablo came in Gameweek 7, when halting their 3-game losing streak by drawing 2-2 with Reading. Pablo only played a cameo role in that game, but since then he played the majority of games in Swansea's respectable run of 2 wins and 3 draws in 5 games that included games against Chelsea, Man City and away trips to Southampton and Newcastle.

With Pablo expected to return soon (FPL estimates a return by the next GW or so) we shall examine the most similar cases possible where Michu scored in FPL, and how it affected everyone around Michu.

We'll be examining comparison in 1 game first, and if there any obvious patterns present we will continue spotting those trends in later games. So the key matches we are comparing are Swansea's home win against Wigan (with Pablo) and the 2-2 draw against Reading (without Pablo for the most of it).

The Stats

Firstly, the fundamental stats.

Stats	Without Pablo (v Reading)	With Pablo (v Wigan)
Team Stats
Attempts	26	20
Attempts in Box	20	7
Crosses	8/27	7/33
Corners	5/11	5/9
Take Ons	6/20	4/15
Interceptions	13	23
Headed Duels	12/33	8/17
Tackles	12/16	11/14
Passes	589	419
Pass Success Rate	83%	82%
Key Passes	12	12
Michu’s Stats
Attempts	2	4
Attempts in Box	2	2 (2 Barely outside)
Crosses	0	1/2
Corners	0	0
Take Ons	0/2	2/3
Interceptions	1	1
Headed Duels	2/7	4/5
Tackles	1	2
Passes	44	17
Pass Success Rate	64%	65%
Key Passes	3	2

I'll sum up the observations in point form in case the table is TL;DR for you, but for those who have good attention spans please take note of those highlighted:

Open Play Passes and Tempo

Swansea play a lot more passes without Pablo on the field. However, the fact that the number of crosses in both games were about the same show that Swansea are more patient without Pablo in the squad, which probably amounted to more possession.

In terms of Michu's passing pattern, he made a lot more passes without Pablo. With Swansea's possession game in effect, Michu often pulled out wider to make his passes, as his heat maps and passing locations would suggest.

It is also worth noting that Swansea made less "interceptions + tackles" against Reading than Wigan, which also contributes to showing that Swansea didn't have to win the ball back as often, hence having a slower, possession based game.

Headed Chances

Michu was more dangerous in the air against with Pablo on the field. Although Michu had more headers against Reading, they were all near the center circle while Michu had 2 aerial duels in the box against Wigan.

I did not include this stat in the tables, but Pablo attempted 6 crosses when playing alongside Michu, which suggests that Michu would be AT LEAST more of an aerial threat with Pablo in the side.

Goal Threat

Now, the all important threat. What is fascinating about this particular case study is that that was the period where Michu and Swansea were still recovering from their slump. Swansea had to chase the game against Reading, while they led 2-0 against Wigan before conceding.

This difference in situation would justify Swansea having significantly more shots in the box than against Wigan, but while since their total attempts remained the same, it is expected that Michu would've taken more shots, but he didn't due to Luke Moore and Danny Graham both being on the field against Reading compared to both aforementioned players being rested against Wigan. Thus in terms of goal threat we will have to do a bit more digging.

Conclusion

So what have we learnt? With Pablo, we expect:

1. Michu to get more aerial chances that are goal threats.
2. Swansea to play a more direct game, and Michu to be waiting to finish chances.

FPL Points

The biggest question that are on people's minds though, is "How does Pablo being in the starting XI affect Michu?" Well for that, my answer is that Swansea will be a lot more direct in attack, and Michu would be more likely to score as a result, whether from headers off set pieces or just open play.

With a bit more digging...

So having identified a couple of patterns, we shall now look at whether this holds true for 1) The rest of Swansea's home games, and 2) Swansea's away games. 

Without going too much into stats, 

1) Michu's aerial stats (with Pablo) unfortunately weren't similar to the ones in the case study. However, without Pablo, Michu's aerial duels against Arsenal and Norwich were similar to the case study above. So perhaps aerial duels aren't a real key factor for Michu.

2) As for Swansea's passing stats, one thing that is consistent about them is that they complete around 600 passes per game at home, and 400 passes away. The significant stat here is that Hernandez (at least when Swansea win) makes around 10% of those passes, as well as a good chunk of their crosses (4 of 16 against Newcastle away and 13 out of 25 against West Brom at home, 4 being corners)

Final Conclusion

So the final conclusion so far is that while Hernandez eases into the Swansea first XI, what he brings to the team consistently are crosses, and lots of them. This will make Michu a greater goal threat theoretically, however due to Pablo's poor crossing (based on stats, not watching replays) Michu hasn't hasn't been a real aerial threat YET. After all, if you don't buy a ticket, you won't win the lottery.

It is also noteworthy that despite Pablo's FPL points looking like it is eating into Michu's, it might be actually worth having Michu AND Hernandez in the squad, but only when Hernandez starts getting more of his crosses right, and Swansea's favourable fixtures post-Man United provide just the platform.