Wednesday 23 January 2013

Guest Article/Tipping: 2nd half season Fantasy Prospects

A proven FPL player (Acquafresca if you haven't heard) had just presented me with a list of FPL prospects for the 2nd half of the season. While I am a fan of season-long punts, they have to be justified and I will do the best I can do elaborate on these punts.



Firstly, let's define what "punts" or "differentials" are. The strictest requirement of a player being a differential is most certainly his ownership % value. The smaller the number, the larger the differential. The key between picking differentials are (A) how long you keep them and (B) how they interact with your starting XI.

Some people have differentials as "flair picks' that appear in the starting XI most weeks that usually hit 2 points but might outshine their popular mates in the coming Gameweeks. These flair picks are also (usually) cheaper than their popular counterparts, the first few names coming to mind being Lennon (Bale), Dzeko (Tevez/Aguero) and Sturridge (Suarez). Flair picks

The second kind of differential is the kind that you would have in your starting lineup for favourable home games. These players have scoring patterns of 2, 2, 2, 20, 2, 2, etc. and usually are really, really cheap and they sit on your bench most games. They are also usually the "playmakers" or the supposed set piece takers in their teams that are largely overlooked because their delivery so far this season has been poor. Good examples are Ruiz, Noble and Matt Jarvis/Taylor.

The third and final kind of differential are "value" differentials that might be a mix of the first two kinds, because they obtain their values differently. Some of these differentials have high value based on their pedigree (Lampard) while some have value from their constant involvement in attacks (Taarabt). Some even are just "value for money" for being undervalued like Cuellar at the start of the season.

How to use the following table:

1) Decide on how many differentials you want.

2a) If you go with flair picks, try to have 1, at most 2 in the starting XI and 1 on the bench. 3 flair picks out of 15 is actually quite different from majority of FPL players already.

2b) If you go with explosive players, go with Home/Away Rotations. Some fixture strengths might be harder at home, but at least when explosive differentials deliver you'll expect them to deliver at home. Use this link for rotations of pairs of strikers to obtain a GUARANTEED home game every week.

2c) With value players, you'd get them when you're not happy with flair picks OR explosive players. Play them wherever you want, but the respective player's "value" will solely have to be determined by yours and yours alone. The ones recommended here will be in the high range, but we can't tell you who's higher over the other. Good luck.

Category 1: Flair Picks
Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Strikers
Name
$
%
Name
$
%
Name
$
%
Name
$
%
Lloris
5.9
1.1
Dawson
4.5
1.5
Taarabt
5.7
4.2
Sturridge
7.4
3.4



Turner
4.1
0.6
A. Johnson
6.7
2.3
Fondre
4.7
2.4






Dempsey
9.0
1.5



Category 2: Explosive Differentials
Forwards
Name
$
%
Ruiz
5.4
1.5
Dzeko
7.5
6.1
Benteke
6.5
2.7
Category 3a: Proven Value
Midfielders
Forwards
Name
$
%
Name
$
%
Lampard
8.4
3.1
Aguero
10.9
5.1
Silva
9.4
5.7
Fletcher
7.0
5.4
Gerrard
9.4
6.5



Category 3b: Potential Value
GK
Defenders
Midfielders
Name
$
%
Name
$
%
Name
$
%
Federici
4.4
4.3
Davies
4.3
6.3
De Guzman
5.7
1.5
Boruc
4.4
0.2
Shaw
4.0
1.5






Wilson
4.0
0.4



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