Sunday 20 January 2013

Post-Winter Special: Rotations vs. Fixtures, Part 1: Perfect Rotations

With the Wildcard period almost over, many have played theirs but are still in the midst of chopping and changing their defence due to offloading their DGW players form the last 2 GWs. This post will serve as a "boxing match", with Home/Away rotations being in the Red Corner, and fixture difficulty squaring up to rotation policies in the blue corner.

*Warning: This post will contain colors and tables. Lots of staring might be required for you to fully appreciate the content of this post.



Alright here we go. In my last Winter Wildcard article, I briefly stated some Goalkeeping "perfect" rotations that will suit some strategies. This article will start with examining those "perfect" rotations and I will personally rank them in terms of difficulty based on how many "pairs of fixtures" are bad.

GW
NOR/WIG(9.6)
QPR/SOU(9.3)
AVL/WBA(9.7)
RDG/SWA(10.0)
NEW/SUN(10.4)
24
TOT/stk
MCI/mnu
NEW/eve
CHE/sun
avl/SWA
25
qpr/STK
NOR/wig
eve/TOT
SUN/whu
CHE/rdg
26
FUL/che
swa/MCI
WHU/liv
stk/QPR
tot/ARS
27
EVE/rdg
MNU/new
ars/SUN
WIG/liv
SOU/wba
28
mnu/LIV
sou/QPR
MCI/che
eve/NEW
swa/FUL
29
SOU/mci
SUN/nor
rdg/SWA
AVL/wba
STK/qpr
30
sun/NEW
avl/LIV
QPR/stk
mnu/ARS
wig/NOR
31
wig/NOR
ful/CHE
LIV/whu
ars/TOT
mci/MNU
32
SWA/qpr
WIG/rdg
stk/ARS
SOU/nor
FUL/che
33
ars/SWA
eve/WHU
FUL/mci
LIV/wig
SUN/new
34
RDG/whu
STK/swa
mnu/NEW
nor/SOU
wba/EVE
35
stk/TOT
rdg/WBA
SUN/sou
QPR/che
LIV/avl
36
AVL/wba
ARS/tot
nor/WIG
ful/MCI
whu/STK
37
WBA/ars
NEW/sun
CHE/nor
MCI/mnu
qpr/SOU
38
mci/AVL
liv/STK
wig/MNU
whu/FUL
ARS/tot

AH-HA, SOME DATA! Now the red-highlighted fixtures are the "Pick your poison" fixtures, but the yellow highlighted fixtures are the "Dilemma" fixtures where 1 team has a strong opponent at home while the away team has a significantly weaker team offensively. The braver managers would treat away games to weak teams as a likely clean sheet, while safe players would consider them as dilemmas. 

What is interesting to note that NOR/WIG actually serve up the best rotations/fixtures of the budgets, with 3 headaches until the end of the season (2 if you WC after GW24!!!!)

On with the elite pairings. 

GW
STK/WHU(11.1)
ARS/TOT(11.2)
EVE/LIV(11.3)
CHE/FUL(11.5)
MCI/MNU(12.4)
24
WIG/ful
LIV/nor
WBA/ars
rdg/WHU
qpr/SOU
25
ars/SWA
STK/wba
AVL/mci
new/MNU
LIV/ful
26
RDG/avl
sun/NEW
mnu/WBA
WIG/nor
sou/EVE
27
ful/TOT
AVL/whu
nor/SWA
mci/STK
CHE/qpr
28
WHU/sto
tot/ARS
RDG/wig
WBA/sun
avl/NOR
29
new/MNU
EVE/liv
ars/TOT
ful/CHE
WIG/whu
30
WBA/che
swa/FUL
MCI/sou
WHU/tot
eve/RDG
31
eve/WBA
RDG/swa
STK/avl
sou/QPR
NEW/sun
32
AVL/liv
wba/EVE
tot/WHU
SUN/new
mnu/MCI
33
MNU/sou
NOR/che
QPR/rdg
TOT/avl
WBA/stk
34
qpr/WIG
ful/MCI
sun/CHE
liv/ARS
tot/AVL
35
NOR/mci
MNU/wig
FUL/new
SWA/eve
WHU/ars
36
sun/NEW
qpr/SOU
liv/EVE
mnu/RDG
swa/CHE
37
TOT/eve
WIG/stk
WHU/ful
avl/LIV
rdg/SWA
38
sou/RDG
new/SUN
che/QPR
EVE/swa
NOR/wba


So for the relatively expensive pairings, the 2 pairs that stand out are the tried and trusted BEGO/JUSSI combo which has been inflated by some amount now. Despite Stoke and West Ham losing quite a bit of form in defense, this combo would probably be the most value for money pairing right about now.

A REAL alternative to the pair however, is the EVE/LIV pairing of Howard and Reina. Now I am aware that they play each other in GW36 (sorry about not highlighting), but sou and sun away are not bad, so the only snag is GW29. That'll be my pick for the WC, until I go through the imperfect combos.

Second part will come as soon as possible, there is a national holiday this coming Thursday so I'll be writing then. But it should look something like this, and hopefully this article will be useful for you guys.


No comments:

Post a Comment