Post-Winter Special: Rotation vs. Fixtures Part 2, Imperfect Rotations

So with part 1 up, hopefully that the format of the post was simple enough for everybody to digest. Imperfect Rotations now will be examined as there have been suggestions of better combinations (such as suggested by FantasyFootballScout) and I will explore too the extent of whether can any of those combos beat the current "Record Holder" of Reina/Howard.


*Warning: This post will contain colors and tables. Lots of staring might be required for you to fully appreciate the content of this post.


So let's start with the FantasyFootballScout selections. With their picks revolving around Begovic, Szczesny and Mignolet, they also offer a Villa/Reading pairing that in hindsight doesn't look very good now, but nevertheless I'll try and look at things from their angle first and see where we go from there.

So I managed to figure out a decent metric for justifying fixture difficulty. Looking at the BPL table so far, it's a relatively not-so-well kept secret, for example that West Ham have been the least attacking away from home. In fact prior to their 5-1 defeat to Arsenal they had only scored 5 goals away from home. Anyway, teams that have scored 11 goals (home/away) will be given green indicators, while teams that have scored between 12 and 15 goals (Southampton away or Wigan at home) will be given yellow indicators.

More interesting facts: West Ham have scored 20 goals at home, Reading and Fulham have scored 1.5 goals per game at home. Don't expect clean sheets away to Fulham. Sunderland are also surprisingly tame away, although they are coming to form now, I'll need a few games before I can classify them as "completely avoid".

GW	STK/ARS		STK/WIG		STK/RDG		ARS/SUN
24	WIG	LIV	WIG	stk	WIG	CHE	LIV	SWA
25	ars	STK	ars	SOU	ars	SUN	STK	rdg
26	RDG	sun	RDG	che	RDG	stk	sun	ARS
27	ful	AVL	ful	rdg	ful	WIG	AVL	wba
28	WHU	tot	WHU	LIV	WHU	eve	tot	FUL
29	new	EVE	new	mci	new	AVL	EVE	qpr
30	WBA	swa	WBA	NEW	WBA	mnu	swa	NOR
31	eve	RDG	eve	NOR	eve	ars	RDG	MNU
32	AVL	wba	AVL	qpr	AVL	SOU	wba	che
33	MNU	NOR	MNU	SWA	MNU	LIV	NOR	new
34	qpr	ful	qpr	whu	qpr	nor	ful	EVE
35	NOR	MNU	NOR	TOT	NOR	QPR	MNU	avl
36	sun	qpr	sun	wba	sun	ful	qpr	STK
37	TOT	WIG	TOT	ars	TOT	MCI	WIG	SOU
38	sou	new	sou	AVL	sou	whu	new	tot

GW	ARS/QPR		SUN/WIG		SUN/WHU		AVL/RDG
24	LIV	MCI	SWA	stk	SWA	ful	NEW	CHE
25	STK	NOR	rdg	SOU	rdg	SWA	eve	SUN
26	sun	swa	ARS	che	ARS	avl	WHU	stk
27	AVL	MNU	wba	rdg	wba	TOT	ars	WIG
28	tot	sou	FUL	LIV	FUL	stk	MCI	eve
29	EVE	SUN	qpr	mci	qpr	MNU	rdg	AVL
30	swa	avl	NOR	NEW	NOR	che	QPR	mnu
31	RDG	ful	MNU	NOR	MNU	WBA	LIV	ars
32	wba	WIG	che	qpr	che	liv	stk	SOU
33	NOR	eve	new	SWA	new	sou	FUL	LIV
34	ful	STK	EVE	whu	EVE	WIG	mnu	nor
35	MNU	rdg	avl	TOT	avl	mci	SUN	QPR
36	qpr	ARS	STK	wba	STK	NEW	nor	ful
37	WIG	NEW	SOU	ars	SOU	eve	CHE	MCI
38	new	liv	tot	AVL	tot	RDG	wig	whu

Well this is interesting. Among the FFS picks, only Stoke/Arsenal stand out (just from lack of Red Bars really) but with the bar set at 11.1 down to 10.4 depending on how cheap you got Bego for, there are better ways to invest in this Stoke/Arsenal defence. There is also the issue that Stoke are in freefall now, and that Arsenal are conceding more than they are supposed to. Anyway that will conclude the FFS picks for now, will move on to the more "requested" rotations.

Firstly I'm just glad that I managed to get a format for these tables. Must make a mental note to keep these tables for next season. Very useful so far. Onward.

Talk of the crowd (at least on TotalFPL) at the moment is that people are

(1) content on keeping Begovic because of how they bought him cheap and are optimistic on Stoke's CS chances based on Wilson's return to the side. Maybe on another day I would do an analysis of how Stoke are conceding goals without their main men.

(2) Sticking to a "1 keeper strategy" where 1 keeper permanently plays the rest of the season, seeing how pessimistic Clean Sheet chances have been anyway. Besides the popular but inflated Bego/Jaask, many managers have sought to David de Gea as the cheapest route to United's defense, despite the risk of being rotated randomly by Sir Alex Ferguson.

So with that in mind, I will firstly pinpoint Begovic/Jaaskelainen as constraints and I will attempt to work out what are the best "combos" for Stoke to work with for the remainder of the season. Next, since popular picks that complement these 1 keeper strats are Bunn and Federici, I will also look up possible rotation combos to provide decent cover just in case your main keeper faces a bummer of a fixture.

Based on the rotation sheet that I picked up frmo (somewhere), I"ll list possible combos as well their fixtures, starting with Bego:

Begovic

GW	STO/NOR		STO/WBA		STO/FUL		STO/QPR
24	WIG	TOT	WIG	eve	WIG	WHU	WIG	MCI
25	ars	qpr	ars	TOT	ars	MNU	ars	NOR
26	RDG	FUL	RDG	liv	RDG	nor	RDG	swa
27	ful	EVE	ful	SUN	ful	STK	ful	MNU
28	WHU	mnu	WHU	che	WHU	sun	WHU	sou
29	new	SOU	new	SWA	new	CHE	new	SUN
30	WBA	sun	WBA	stk	WBA	tot	WBA	avl
31	eve	wig	eve	whu	eve	QPR	eve	ful
32	AVL	SWA	AVL	ARS	AVL	new	AVL	WIG
33	MNU	ars	MNU	mci	MNU	avl	MNU	eve
34	qpr	RDG	qpr	NEW	qpr	ARS	qpr	STK
35	NOR	stk	NOR	sou	NOR	eve	NOR	rdg
36	sun	AVL	sun	WIG	sun	RDG	sun	ARS
37	TOT	WBA	TOT	nor	TOT	LIV	TOT	NEW
38	sou	mci	sou	MNU	sou	swa	sou	liv

Looking at pairings with Bego, firstly don't bother with Federici. Now the popular "Bego-Bunn" combo only hits 2 snags in GW27 and 33, but beyond that you're quite spoilt for choice here. Spending a bit more doesn't really give you better fixtures, but an interesting strategy is to have Bego and Schwarzer initially (copping the GW25 hard pair) and then right before GW27, you switch Schwarzer to Bunn/Ruddy. Instead of TOT/LIV you face WBA instead. Food for thought.

Bunn

Now Bunn's a bit of a special case (beyond the obvious which is his 4.1 price tag). From GW 25 onwards, besides the fact that he rotates perfectly with Al-Habsi (where most will either disregard or cringe at the mere sound of his name), Bunn also rotates well with several budget keepers: Southampton (4.4), Villa (4.7), or if you wanna spend a bit more, Newcastle (5.2), Everton (5.5), and Bego (5.1 to 5.8) all offer decent rotation patterns. Heck even expensive rotations (Chelsea@6.4) provide decent rotations. Time for some tables.

GW	NOR/SOU		NOR/NEW		NOR/EVE		NOR/AVL
24	TOT	mnu	TOT	avl	TOT	WBA	TOT	NEW
25	qpr	wig	qpr	CHE	qpr	AVL	qpr	eve
26	FUL	MCI	FUL	tot	FUL	mnu	FUL	WHU
27	EVE	new	EVE	SOU	EVE	nor	EVE	ars
28	mnu	QPR	mnu	swa	mnu	RDG	mnu	MCI
29	SOU	nor	SOU	STK	SOU	ars	SOU	rdg
30	sun	LIV	sun	wig	sun	MCI	sun	QPR
31	wig	CHE	wig	mci	wig	STK	wig	LIV
32	SWA	rdg	SWA	FUL	SWA	tot	SWA	stk
33	ars	WHU	ars	SUN	ars	QPR	ars	FUL
34	RDG	swa	RDG	wba	RDG	sun	RDG	mnu
35	stk	WBA	stk	LIV	stk	FUL	stk	SUN
36	AVL	tot	AVL	whu	AVL	liv	AVL	nor
37	WBA	sun	WBA	qpr	WBA	WHU	WBA	CHE
38	mci	STK	mci	ARS	mci	che	mci	wig

Boom!! Now 2 strategies here. Boruc/Bunn will be bad FOR NOW, but the tables are telling me that Boruc/Bunn are actually ok until the end of the season. Odd. Well the good news is that it's never too late to catch Southampton's GK. Like literally. Haha. Anyway do look at these combos and see which you fancy. Elite options coming up.

GW	NOR/STK		NOR/MNU		NOR/CHE
24	TOT	WIG	TOT	SOU	TOT	rdg
25	qpr	ars	qpr	ful	qpr	new
26	FUL	RDG	FUL	EVE	FUL	WIG
27	EVE	ful	EVE	qpr	EVE	mci
28	mnu	WHU	mnu	NOR	mnu	WBA
29	SOU	new	SOU	whu	SOU	ful
30	sun	WBA	sun	RDG	sun	WHU
31	wig	eve	wig	sun	wig	sou
32	SWA	AVL	SWA	MCI	SWA	SUN
33	ars	MNU	ars	stk	ars	TOT
34	RDG	qpr	RDG	AVL	RDG	liv
35	stk	NOR	stk	ars	stk	SWA
36	AVL	sun	AVL	CHE	AVL	mnu
37	WBA	TOT	WBA	SWA	WBA	avl
38	mci	sou	mci	wba	mci	EVE

OK so the Bego/Bunn comno is not WITHOUT justification. The combo DOES have about 8 chances realistically of getting clean sheets, so if you're happy with that then yea fly with it. David de Gea/Bunn is also a relatively asked about combo and looking at fixtures, seems pretty solid to me. Just comes down to whether you're more attracted to more green or less red really.

I'll conclude this section with David de Gea combos, followed by special picks from the "imperfect" combos that I "scouted" from part 1.

David de Gea

With DDG/Bunn out of the way, I thought of probably entertaining people's thoughts of having DDG as part of a rotation instead of a perma-playing keeper, and this came out:

GW	MNU/NEW		MNU/WHU		MNU/RDG		MNU/ARS
24	SOU	avl	SOU	ful	SOU	CHE	SOU	LIV
25	ful	CHE	ful	SWA	ful	SUN	ful	STK
26	EVE	tot	EVE	avl	EVE	stk	EVE	sun
27	qpr	SOU	qpr	TOT	qpr	WIG	qpr	AVL
28	NOR	swa	NOR	stk	NOR	eve	NOR	tot
29	whu	STK	whu	MNU	whu	AVL	whu	EVE
30	RDG	wig	RDG	che	RDG	mnu	RDG	swa
31	sun	mci	sun	WBA	sun	ars	sun	RDG
32	MCI	FUL	MCI	liv	MCI	SOU	MCI	wba
33	stk	SUN	stk	sou	stk	LIV	stk	NOR
34	AVL	wba	AVL	WIG	AVL	nor	AVL	ful
35	ars	LIV	ars	mci	ars	QPR	ars	MNU
36	CHE	whu	CHE	NEW	CHE	ful	CHE	qpr
37	SWA	qpr	SWA	eve	SWA	MCI	SWA	WIG
38	wba	ARS	wba	RDG	wba	whu	wba	new

A real Risk/Reward system here. The "bar" set by DDG combos are 6/8/1 in terms of realistic/so-so/unlikely clean sheets. The alternative cheap combo of Federici (4.4) gives you 6/7/2. but a guaranteed keeper for each week, assuming that DDG is bound to be rotated. Another step higher would see investment in Szczesny which is a whopping 9 likely CS, but 3 unlikely. More food for thought.
Imperfect Rotations: My nominations

Now for this part, I do have a rotation sheet that spots perfect/imperfect rotations over the season. The below rotations are my "GK punts" for the second half of the season, hopefully something works...

GW	WHU/AVL		RDG/TOT		ARS/SWA		FUL/SOU
24	ful	NEW	CHE	nor	LIV	sun	WHU	mnu
25	SWA	eve	SUN	wba	STK	whu	MNU	wig
26	avl	WHU	stk	NEW	sun	QPR	nor	MCI
27	TOT	ars	WIG	whu	AVL	liv	STK	new
28	stk	MCI	eve	ARS	tot	NEW	sun	QPR
29	MNU	rdg	AVL	liv	EVE	wba	CHE	nor
30	che	QPR	mnu	FUL	swa	ARS	tot	LIV
31	WBA	LIV	ars	swa	RDG	TOT	QPR	CHE
32	liv	stk	SOU	EVE	wba	nor	new	rdg
33	sou	FUL	LIV	che	NOR	wig	avl	WHU
34	WIG	mnu	nor	MCI	ful	SOU	ARS	swa
35	mci	SUN	QPR	wig	MNU	che	eve	WBA
36	NEW	nor	ful	SOU	qpr	MCI	RDG	tot
37	eve	CHE	MCI	stk	WIG	mnu	LIV	sun
38	RDG	wig	whu	SUN	new	FUL	swa	STK

Well well well. Ars/Swansea standout, but my punt for the season would be Schwarzer/Boruc would give you decent games up to GW30, and then you can decide whether to jump ship on the combo. After all by then you'll know how long to hold out before moving for Ruddy. Just a punt, they're the same price as Bego/Jussi if you want a differential for the aforementioned combo.