Tuesday 1 January 2013

GW20: The Verdict

Made the grave mistake of not switching captains from Bale to RVP on Saturday. How much will this hurt...



The Verdict is about analysis of my players based on their score, combined with their underlying stats from a particular Gameweek. More explanation to follow.

This section was actually quite tricky to make because players brought in have expectations about them, highlighted by their projected score. Since this is part of the personal record, there will be 2 tables to deliver the verdict on these players. The first table will be the underlying stats for each player based on their individual games.

Based on these stats, their actual score is compared to their projected score.

Projected Score
Actual Score
Stats
Verdict
Good
Good
Good
Deliver
Good
Bad
Good
Unlucky
Good
Good
Bad
Lucky
Good
Bad
Bad
Flop
Bad
Good
Good
Gem
Bad
Bad
Good
Unlucky
Bad
Good
Bad
Lucky
Bad
Bad
Bad
Expected


The rule I guess, is to keep the Delivers and the Gems, Monitor the Lucky and the Unlucky, and drop the Flops.

Player
Price
Minutes
Key Passes
Shots
Shots in the box
Shots on Target
Assists
Goals
Nastasic
5.6
97
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gibbs
5.5
95
1
1
1
1
1
0
Wilkinson
4.4
71
0
0
0
0
0
0
Puncheon
4.8
85
1
2
2
1
0
0
Bale
9.9
90
3
3
1
1
0
0
Mata
9.8
85
2
2
2
2
1
0
Nolan
6.6
95
2
1
0
1
0
0
Suarez
10.2
93
2
7
6
4
0
2
Defoe
8.5
76
0
3
2
1
0
0
RVP
14.0
29
0
2
1
2
0
1
Michu
6.8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cameron
4.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Clyne
4.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Player
Projected Score
Actual Score
Stats
Verdict
Begovic
2
2
N/A
N/A
Gibbs
6
4
Bad
Lucky
Wilkinson
2
-1
Bad
Expected
Nastasic
6
1
Bad
Flop
Mata
2 (4)
7
Good
Gem
Bale
5 at least
2
Good
Unlucky
Puncheon
2
2
Bad
Expected
Nolan
2
1
Bad
Expected
Suarez
5 at least
13
Good
Deliver
Defoe
2 (4)
2
Bad
Flop
RVP
6 at least
6
Good 
Deliver 
Krul
2
0
N/A
N/A
Cameron
0
0
-
Not Playing
Michu
0
0
-
Injured
Clyne
2
0
-
Injured

Delivers: Suarez, RVP

Unlucky: Bale

Lucky: Gibbs

Expecteds: Puncheon, Expected, Wilkinson

Flops: Nastasic

Not Playing/Injured: Michu, Cameron, Clyne

Conclusion: Suarez has saved my week. 38 points from a 40 point projection is actually OK. I have just mucked up the captain choices. Simple as that. I got greedy, and I have lost 2 cup games as a result. Thankfully I made the mistake BEFORE New Years, so I'm still mistake free this year :P

Differentials were OK this week. Snodgrass fell flat a little bit despite Norwich putting 3 past Man City which is odd, but Gerrard and Downing being credited with an assist each means that the differentials did fire, but not too much. Since I have Liverpool cover there's no real point considering those two just yet, but with Aguero coming back to form I do have someone to get rid of...

After going through Arsenal and West Ham's performances, Theo Walcott seems to be the only value for money investment, or at least at first glance. I am, however, struggling to figure out where to fit Walcott in time for GW23, maybe a Double Gameweek combo of Walcott + Cole for Defoe and Puncheon? The options become more and more intriguing...

To monitor: All the injuries. Wilkinson's doubtful, Clyne's doubtful, Michu's STILL doubtful, but most importantly, Bale's suspended (I'm ok with that) and Nolan's no show means that it's Nolan's turn to go.

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