Saturday 5 January 2013

GW21: The Watchlist


Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW18):



Wishlist: Gerrard, Ruiz, Walcott

Watchlist 1: Ba, Marveaux

Watchlist 2: Aguero




Player
Price
Minutes
Key Passes
Shots
Shots in Box
Shots on Target
Assists
Goals
West Brom 1 Fulham 2
Morrison (J)
6.0
95
3
2
0
1
0
0
Lukaku
6.4
95
0
6
6
2
0
1
Berbatov
7.1
94
2
3
1
1
0
1
Kacaniklic
4.4
95
1
2
2
2
0
1
Wigan 0 Man United 4
Hernandez
7.0
93
1
6
5
3
1
2
RVP
14.0
93
2
4
3
2
1
2
Carrick
5.8
93
3
0
0
0
0
0
Man City 3 Stoke 0
Barry
5.3
94
5
1
1
0
0
0
Milner
6.1
94
4
0
0
0
1
0
Aguero
11.0
77
2
6
6
4
1
1
Dzeko
7.3
92
0
5
4
1
0
1
West Ham 2 Norwich 1
Noble
5.0
94
2
3
1
1
1
1
Matt Taylor
4.6
94
3
2
0
1
0
0
Cole
4.9
94
1
3
2
1
0
0
Spurs 3 Reading 1
Player
Price
Minutes
K.Pass
Shots
S.i.Box
Target
Assists
Goals
Dembele
5.9
70
6
2
0
1
0
1
Lennon
7.2
95
6
2
2
0
1
0
Adebayor
9.0
88
5
3
3
1
0
1
Defoe
8.5
95
3
7
2
3
0
0
Pogrebnyak
4.3
84
0
3
3
2
0
1
Southampton 1 Arsenal 1
Puncheon
4.8
94
2
4
2
2
1
0
Walcott
9.0
94
0
2
0
1
1
0
Swansea 2 Villa 2
Hernandez
5.9
96
4
5
3
0
1
0
Michu
8.2
96
1
6
4
2
0
0
Routledge
5.5
66
2
2
2
2
0
1
Graham
5.4
96
0
5
5
2
0
1
Benteke
6.7
96
1
4
4
2
1
1
Weimann
5.2
96
0
4
4
2
1
1
Chelsea 0 QPR 1
Torres
9.8
94
0
3
3
1
0
0
Wright-Phil
4.9
78
0
4
0
1
0
1
Newcastle 1 Everton 2
Baines
7.5
97
2
6
2
4
0
1
Jelavic
8.1
88
3
1
1
0
1
0
Cisse (Papiss)
8.8
97
0
3
3
2
0
1
Liverpool 3 Sunderland 0
Downing
5.7
93
6
3
1
1
0
0
Gerrard
9.4
93
7
4
2
0
2
0
Suarez
10.3
93
3
7
4
5
1
2
Sterling
5.6
57
0
3
3
1
0
1


Top Shooters:

Papiss Cisse, Michu, Graham, Benteke, Weimann, Pog, Lukaku

Looks like Benteke was reading. The top shooters this week are actually cheap differentials to what we usually suspect, with forgotten men Graham, P.Cisse, Lukaku and Pogrebnyak stepping up to the fore. All these guys probably wouldn't be given a verdict, but I'll put the entire list on Watchlist 2 for now and I'll give them a real analysis if they do keep up their scoring records.

Top Creators:

Downing, Dembele, Lennon, Barry

While the trend mentioned last week continued, the top creators this week are differentials who are relatively cheap compared to the "crown jewels" of their respective teams. Not gonna go near them for now, but if they do appear twice in a row I would certainly take note and give them a quick summary again.

The elite options

With the exception of Mata being rotated (which was half expected anyway), most of the elite choices this week did really well, hence the really high average score of 52 points. This coming week will be intriguing however, as MCI v ARS and MNU v LIV really only suggest that Spurs and (tentative) DGWers Chelsea are suitable captain choices. Leighton Baines is also back on the radar as a 7.5 midfielder (there's no other way to look at it really).

The Emerging Defenders

Many would jump on the Zabaleta or O'Brien bandwagon after their double digit hauls this week, but those that have dug deeper know that Zab's always a rotation risk and O'Brien's goal was his only attempt at goal really. He also lucked out with the Clean sheet and  picked up a knock, so we can categorise that as a "ship has set sail" player. Kudos to all those who brought him in.

Top All Rounders:

Tier 1: Gerrard, Suarez, Baines, Aguero

Tier 2: Pablo Hernandez, Adebayor, Defoe, Javier Hernandez, RVP

To be Given Verdict: 

All-Rounders: Gerrard, Baines, Aguero, Pablo Hernandez, Defoe

Shooters/Creators: Graham

Gerrard
So there are talks now of a "Power 5" template midfield containing Mata, Bale, Michu Walcott and Fellaini. While Liverpool have a difficult run of fixtures coming up, Gerrard's form, role and stats are just too hard to ignore. A good candidate for players who think that Suarez up front could be upstaged by Sturridge's arrival. A reshuffle could see you have Ba for Chelsea cover, and you could go Bale/Gerrard/Michu/Fellaini/Walcott with RVP, Aguero/Tevez and Ba up front. Viable? Wishlist

Baines
There was this song that was only played in the Power Rangers, the First Movie credits, and it went something like "BOOM there goes the BOOM" by P.O.D, and that's kind of how Baines announced his return to his FPL suitors.

Back to his game analysis. Leighton Baines was always about 3 things: His set-piece ability, his crossing from open play and his chemistry with his left-sided midfielder and any attacking midfielders who drifted left. What is interesting this game compared to his previous games is that while his pass patterns in open play have been the same, his attempts and crosses have picked up a notch.

His crossing has also come from both flanks, which could signal that Baines is back to his old playing style. The conundrum present is: How do you fit Baines into a power 5 midfield? I think the answer will fall for me in Pre-Gameweek 25. In the meantime, he's on Watchlist 1. Might have to bring him in sooner than I think. Watchlist 1

Pablo Hernandez
This is like the "dum dum dum" moment for the time put up that article about Hernandez on Michu's effectiveness. Is it coming to fruition? Let's take a look. 8 crosses, 1 successful but most importantly NONE from corners suggest that Pablo is getting involved quite a lot in open play with addition to his open play keypasses.

His attempts at goal are also quite evenly spread throughout the match, although one might wonder whether his attempts at goal imply that Michu's chances of scoring will be reduced. Nevertheless, for 5.9 he IS value, and he goes on my Watchlist for now for pre-25 WC considerations. Watchlist 2

Aguero
Just as Aguero is starting to get minutes and form, he pulls his hammy. What is with hammies this season? Injury aside, Aguero's put in some really, really good stats and he's becoming really hard to ignore. Kudos to the FPL managers who have stuck by him, he stays on my watchlist 2 until the real extent of his injury is 100% clear. Watchlist 2

Defoe
We all know what Defoe can do. Spurs' recent change to 4-4-2 has affected his performance quite a bit (which I will attempt to elaborate in another article) but long story short, Defoe is significantly better playing up front on his own. Lennon, Sandro and Dembele would all play differently, and the key is the amount of service needed for Adebayor to score.

A quick note on Adebayor: His name has popped up a couple of times on this Watchlist and I have dismissed him a couple of times already, but with AFCON news still unsure, I'm not sure whether to invest in either. Both not on the Watchlist for me. Not on Watchlist

Graham
Danny Graham brings back memories of when Swansea were initially promoted to the BPL. Swansea had virtually no stars, and people had written them off when they lost 4-0 to Man City on the oepning day. Their momentum picked up a bit when they drew 0-0 with Liverpool at the Liberty, but the most significant thing that came out of that game was that Liverpool had less possession than Swansea at home.

The point here about Swansea is that their possession based system revolved around a really, really hardworking lone forward who covered a lot of space to get provide passing outlets in the final third. The arrival of Michu put emphasis on Michael Laudrup's wingers to make more crosses, and Danny Graham unsuprisingly was not preferred to 6'4" Michu in the air. With his return to the side, Danny Graham still shows the patterns of a forward who makes short passes back to the wingers and whatnot, and I wouldn't put him on the Watchlist just yet. Not for his price anyway. Not on Watchlist


Conclusion:

Wishlist: Gerrard,

Watchlist 1: Baines

Watchlist 2: Aguero, Pablo Hernandez, Marveaux

Watchlist Changes: Ba drops off the charts this week due to his uncertainty of his switch from Newcastle to Chelsea. Not a fan of punts without information. The names on this Watchlist now are more for my tinkering for the GW-25 Wildcard just in case my Power 5 midfield doesn't work out.

Gerrard v Man United? Baines v Swansea? Mr. Blue Elephant is the pick of the week, being so prominent in the 3-0 AWAY win against them last time round. 

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