So the Winter break has just concluded as a prelude to the January Transfer Window period, and hence the availability of another Wildcard. Games in December 22, 26, 29 and New Years Day brought many Christmas cheers and fears to FPL managers, and this post will highlight what was suspected that came true, as well as some other anomalies.
I will split this Winter Reading into 2 parts, for the sole reason that the topics mentioned are either heavily biased towards FPL tactics or BPL tactics. This article will be on the FPL section directly. The BPL tactics will come in another post, and I will write about their FPL implications as well.
With the Christmas period covering Gameweeks 18-21, I'll be covering any trends that emerged with all teams, as well as individual teams the best I can, as well as the lessons learnt from them, starting with the expected. Here we go.
Striker Rotations: Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City
The biggest issue with playing 4 games in a week and a half is that your players are bound to be rested at some point. Elite teams with deep squads could afford to do so, and one of the hottest topic among the FPL crowd was Man United and Man City's rotation policies. With Swansea, Newcastle, West Brom and Wigan on the horizon, many managers were backing RVP already but were nervously praying for Ferguson's axe not to fall on their 13.5 odd investment.
Game 1: RVP Rooney v Swansea. Conveniently Rooney picked up an injury and RVP's starting status alongside Hernandez was relatively cemented, until Game 3 v West Brom that is.
Welbeck started as the lone striker against the Baggies, but somehow RVP delivered coming on as a substitute with West Brom on the ascendancy. RVP and Hernandez then finished the period off with 2 goals each against Wigan.
Lesson here: Don't expect United strikers to start every game, possibly 3 out of 4. Many wise sages on TotalFPL have preached this policy as "I reckon"s, and with good reason, but this will probably be the first documented instance of them being vindicated.
Unsurprisingly, Chelsea and Man City have kept to this policy as well for the Christmas fixtures. Chelsea's FPL crown jewels Mata and Hazard didn't play 4 games, while Yaya Toure and Silva were City's only permanent fixtures and failed to sparkle despite being the first names on City's sheet.
Arsenal were the only "big side" that remained constant throughout, with promoted Theo Walcott at the lone striker position with Oxlade-Chamberlain filling in at right wing. Beyond that, not much more has happened in terms of rotation. Walcott did prosper from that run of games, the bandwagon starting as early as the game v Wigan.
Do we expect this from Arsene in the future? Perhaps. Here's a clue to who would perform consistently well. Sorting the FPL Transfers page by Value (form), the joint-highest in this metric, Walcott and Gibbs, have produced in either 3 or 4 of their games. Perhaps that is something for us to look at in the future.
Some Teams Halt their slides, Some Teams Start theirs: Villa v Reading
Going into this period of fixtures, Reading were starting to look like the whipping boys of the premiership, at least defensively. Conceding 4 goals against United and 5 against Arsenal was plausible, but the losses against Southampton and out-of-form Sunderland left many managers with a beautiful run of captain choices (myself included). A run of Man City, Swansea, West Ham and Spurs were going to follow, and elite options such as Aguero, Silva, Michu, Bale and double Gameweek prospects Nolan or Cole were looking really, really strong.
Then changes rang around the Madjeski. Reading's prior source of goals, Le Fondre, Hunt and Hal Robson-Kanu were all reduced to cameo roles as Reading switched to their ultra-defensive 4-5-1 or 4-4-1-1 and ran City to the final minute, did a Stoke at Swansea (injuring Michu in the process), BEAT West Ham 1-0 but finally succumbed to Spurs 3-1. McDermott would've been really happy with these results really given the way they were playing.
Villa, on the other hand were in high spirits after discovering their form offensively and defensively. Since their 5-0 mauling at Man City, they went on a run of 2 goals conceded in 5 games, and comprehensively outplayed Liverpool at the Kop with a counterattacking strategy with 5 men at the back. Good stats and a well-executed strategy seemed to encourage investment in Villa, but 3 maulings and a 2-2 draw with Swansea is having us really questioning Villa's "young squad" mentality.
Lesson to take from here is that momentum is a very, very strong indicator for buy/selling decisions in the winter period. The only condition here is that managers would persist with the same strategy throughout this winter period. Reading went with defensive wingers and were rewarded, while Villa persisted with their back 5 and perished.
Injury/Suspension hit teams:
The Season Keepers: Bale, Michu and Fellaini
Early season form had many teams packing their squads with the leading lights of BPL squads: Cookie cutter teams with little variations were quite prominent with Mata, Bale, Michu, Suarez, RVP, Fellaini, Sterling/Puncheon and Begovic all essential to their squads, the only real differentials being the third forward and the budget defenders (Nelsen, Davies, Shorey and any Stoke defender would have at least graced all active players' squads once).
Fellaini was the first "victim" of the winter rotation. Many managers' hands were forced when he picked up a 3 game ban for a headbutt against Stoke just before the busy period. This was perfect timing however, to bring in Gareth Bale who was set to recover from his hammy injury against Fulham just as Fellaini began his suspension.
However, many felt that he was a touch risky given it was Stoke and Bale was on 4 yellows. Straight after his hat-trick against Villa a week later, many hopped aboard the Bale bandwagon but he picked up his 5th yellow for diving and missed the golden tie at Reading as a result.
If the Bale/Fellaini combo wasn't inconvenient enough, Michu was another who was penciled in by many after his two goals against Arsenal and Norwich right before the busy period. Many felt that Michu could score against anyone and was a "season keeper" but a swollen ankle in a 0-0 draw against Reading also forced 94k managers to transfer him out.
Now with these "season keepers" becoming injured, one would feel that suitable rotations coupled with wise transfers is a trivial solution to this problem. However, coupled with Man United, City and Chelsea's rotations, Begovic's tough fixtures combined with Wilkinson, Shawcross' 5th yellows and Shotton's red card, many managers were struggling to even field 11 starters and had to take -4 point hits as a result.
The 4.0~4.5 bracket
Budget favourites Ryan Nelsen and Ben Davies also rested once in that period, with Demel, Clyne and
Reading favourites Shorey (illness) and Gorkss (out of favour) all rested for the busy period. The "Cheap Elite" favourites also were being hit hard, Enrique, Mertersacker and Rafael were hit by injuries while Nastasic, Evans and the entire Spurs defence have taken rests bar Kyle Walker.
Lesson here is to have a 15 man squad who can rotate in and out for each other. Expect everyone to play 3 games out of 4 and just have 5 defenders set for 4 gameweeks in a row. There is no point changing really. The majority of FPL crowd talk has revolved around "Is X player nailed on?" or "Chances of Michu starting?" and it has become a headache because managers have either 1 or 2 injured/non-playing players prior to winter and have taken for granted that their current 11 will start.
Hope you enjoyed the read, part 2 coming soon. *note* I'll include the 4 yellow cards bit in the BPL section. Got a feeling it's tactic related.
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