Tuesday 1 January 2013

GW20: The Watchlist



Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.

Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW18):


Wishlist: Snodgrass, Bale

Watchlist 1:

Watchlist 2: Taarabt, Downing, Gerrard





Player
Price
Minutes
Key Passes
Shots
Shots in Box
Shots on Target
Assists
Goals
Arsenal 7 Newcastle 3
Walcott
8.8
95
2
6
5
4
2
3
Podolski
8.2
82
3
1
1
1
1
1
Marveaux
4.2
87
3
2
1
2
1
1
Ba
8.4
95
1
6
3
3
0
2
Man United 2 West Brom 0
Young
7.4
95
4
3
3
2
1
0
Welbeck
9.4
95
0
3
3
2
0
0
Odemwingie
11.0
95
1
5
2
0
0
0
Norwich 3 Man City 4
Pilkington
5.8
94
1
2
1
1
0
0
Aguero
11.0
94
2
6
5
4
1
1
Dzeko
7.3
80
0
5
4
3
0
2
Yaya Toure
8.0
94
4
2
1
0
1
0
Everton 1 Chelsea 2
Jelavic
8.1
95
1
4
3
2
0
0
Lampard
8.4
95
3
4
2
2
0
1
Torres
9.8
95
0
5
3
1
0
0
QPR 0 Liverpool 3
Player
Price
Minutes
K.Pass
Shots
S.i.Box
Target
Assists
Goals
Taarabt
5.7
93
0
6
0
3
0
0
Mbia
4.9
93
2
6
1
3
0
0
Gerrard
9.4
93
2
4
2
1
1
0
Suarez
10.2
93
2
7
6
4
0
2
Sterling
5.6
93
5
0
0
0
0
0
Sunderland 1 Tottenham 2
Bale
9.9
90
3
3
1
1
0
0
Adebayor
9.0
96
0
4
4
3
0
0
Defoe
8.5
76
0
3
2
1
0
0
Reading 1 West Ham 0
Jarvis
5.6
95
3
1
1
0
0
0
Fulham 1 Swansea 2
Berbatov
7.1
96
3
5
5
0
0
0
Ruiz
5.4
96
6
7
2
4
0
0
Graham
5.4
96
0
4
4
4
0
1
Hernandez
5.9
86
3
0
0
0
1
0
Aston Villa 0 Wigan 3
Kone
6.5
96
1
3
3
3
1
1
Stoke 3 Southampton 3
Jones (K)
5.0
98
1
5
5
1
0
1
Rodriguez
5.1
98
0
3
3
2
0
1
Walters
6.6
98
3
1
1
0
0
0


Top Shooters:

Kone, Dzeko, Adebayor, Ba

So. Many. Shooters. There were a lot more that were supposed to make the list, but the ones I have picked out are the ones that have been consistently well within the last few weeks... Technically Benteke should be up there, but after the no-show against Wigan we'll have to wait for Villa's turning point to consider him again...

Top Creators:

Hernandez, Sterling, Yaya Toure

Here is where things get interesting. An observation I recently made this season is that the usual Top Creators, who are usually set-piece takers and wingers/fullbacks who rely on crosses are hugely going out of favour. Early season prospects such as Baines and Larsson don't even get a mention among FPL managers anymore, and the reason is simple: Top all-rounders have just been out "creating" the top creators themselves. So I feel that it'll be a while before FPL managers will draft in players for chances created alone. Sorry David Silva.

The elite options

Once again, most of the elite players have produced enough stats to justify their price tag, and it seems that most managers are able to afford these luxuries due to cheap defenders such as Nelsen, Ben Davies, Cuellar and the Stoke defense to keep their spots in their FPL squads. As for now, Mata Bale and Walcott are top of the elite must-haves, but with Michu and Fellaini coming back the 5 slots in midfield is starting to look very crowded.

The Emerging Defenders

While I would love for the flying fullbacks to be revitalised, trends of poor crossing and deep defenses imply that teams are willing to play more towards the center and/or counterattack, which usually doesn't involve fullbacks. Thus this section will be more on central defenders with goal-scoring opportunities, as some center-backs recently have put in some intriguing stats. Stephen Mbia, Russell Martin, Nemanja Vidic, Dani Agger and Sebastian Bassong all had offensive returns this week, and I wouldn't be surprised if these centerbacks profited from more well-worked setpieces.

Top All Rounders:

Tier 1: Walcott, Aguero, Ruiz, Suarez

Tier 2: Young, Lampard, Gerrard, Mbia, Marveaux

To be Given Verdict: 

All-Rounders: Walcott, Aguero, Ruiz, Young, Lampard, Gerrard, Mbia, Marveaux,

Shooters/Creators: Kone, Dzeko, Adebayor, Ba (OMG so much writing this post)

Walcott
OoP, Good stats and form, my systems say yes. But I'll do a quick summary of his game anyway. He's certainly playing like a forward: he's made 16 passes all game and had 6 attempts at goal, which is a fine stat for a striker. His action areas and heatmap show that his movement is quite consistent, usually being around central edge of the penalty box. What's really encouraging, however, is Walcott's secondary stats as a striker. 5/8 successful take-ons and 1/5 crosses (he takes left corners) shows that Walcott is definitely value for money now. I'm taking a hit next week to get him in for Puncheon. Wishlist

Ruiz
Usually the word Ruiz would be used in the same sentence as "Berbatov's effectiveness", but it seems that we've overlooked Ruiz as a force himself. For Ruiz's first full game he made 7 attempt at goal, mostly near the edge of the penalty area. His dominant area is near the center circle, where he either plays his passes short or to the flanks.

Besides having his fair shots on goal and ability to dictate play, he also attempted 15 crosses, 7 from corners, where he had more success from corners than open play crosses. What's interesting is that Ruiz's crosses are mostly from the right, which is a point to note just in case his opponents have weak left-backs. For his price, he's definitely on the wishlist at the moment. Finger's on the button at the moment, just waiting for Defoe to flop once more and I'll be swayed towards 5 big midfielders with Ruiz as the third striker. Watch out world. Wishlist

Aguero
OK so we've all had our "elite player" headaches, and these headaches are important since they're usually our captain choices. Firstly, what makes Aguero so alluring to FPL managers in the first place, despite his non-guaranteed minutes and his huge price tag? The obvious answers are his pace/finishing ability, as well as (recently) Tevez and Balotelli's loss of form. Aguero also has the ability to "explode" as most managers would coin, having only had offensive returns in 4 out of the last 10 games.

For his stats, Sergio Aguero would be classified in the "fades in and out of games" kind of player, as the noughties' pundit would say. His shooting patterns, and hence his stats are erratic, as Mancini has tinkered time and time again with Man City's strategy. So while stats and tactics say no, Sergio Aguero is certainly a player you would have if you kept him over say, 10 weeks. If you had persisted with him over the last 10, 4.6 Points per Game is actually a decent return. I can't stand the heartbreak, however, and would only consider him if my front two (RVP/Suarez) cease to generate the stats and form they have at the moment. Watchlist 2

Young
Ashley Young's case is intriguing indeed. With so much competition in the midfield, Ashley would have to outperform the current midfield darlings in the same budget bracket such as Fellaini, Michu, and upcoming differentials Lampard and Walcott. So what is it about Ashley Young that will entitle me to tell you "Buy"?

1) Minutes. 5 starts in the last 6 is not bad. 2) Source of points. Ashley Young's points have been from open play (don't think he's claimed an assist from a corner yet) and yet majority of his crosses (and his key passes) were from his corners against West Brom. So, unless one of United's defenders starting putting them in from corners (Please let me have a reason to pick up Vidic) I will not consider. Not On Watchlist

Gerrard
Steven Gerrard's stats are of a typical box-to-box midfielder, which is strange considering Brendan Rodger's recent penchant for a 4-2-3-1. As a "deep lying midfielder", Steven Gerrard has the added bonus of being involved in set pieces, which Liverpool have actually improved significantly in the last few games. Short corners and edge of the box deliveries are becoming more common with Liverpool's corner routines, and I would be quite happy to list Gerrard as a permanent differential, until Rodgers changes formations again I guess. Wishlist 

Lampard
Well well well. Fat Frankie's finally delivered along with his first 90 minutes of the season, and priced at 8.4, his prospects sound good. However, I wouldn't be so eager to jump on Lampard's prospects as his other 2 attempts at goal have been from outside the box, and his passes in the final third unfortunately haven't been good either. This can all change with a few more games, and he doesn't make the cut this time. Just this time. Not on Watchlist

Marveaux
Sylvain Marveaux is starting to show the 3 golden indicators for a "buy" for a budget signing. 1) Close to 90 minutes per game. 2) Advanced tactical role as there are no offensive players on form beyond Demba Ba. 3) Good fixtures after Everton and Norwich, coupled with the form to back it up. 

He wouldn't make my squad, simply because I already have my 5 midfielders in mind. Unless of course Michu's injury is worse than expected or one of the elite midfields become injured, I'd definitely draft Marv in first thing to fund a certain Blue Elephant in my backline. Watchlist 1


MBia
QPR have been dire for the past few games, and while most FPL pundits will write off all QPR assets bar Adel the Kid, I have reason to promote Stephen M'Bia as an OoP offensive prospect. 6 attempts, mostly outside the box, and just the 2 key passes this game shows that M'Bia has been working very very hard, and with 5 starts in the last 6, he's had 1 assist in the last 2 as well.

The conclusion? Wait. After his next 4 (chel, TOT, whu, MCI) QPR have a beautiful run of fixtures that makes M'Bia startable for almost all of them. Not on my watchlist now, but I'll me looking out for his stats against the big boys (and WHU in particular) and he's the first defender in my Wildcard squad if he continutes to produce. Not on Watchlist

Adebayor
What makes Adebayor likeable in FPL, at least in the past few season, as my ex-flatmate pointed out, is that Adebayor has the tendency to start well in a new team. His control, aerial prowess (relatively) and his ability to get people booked is an asset to any team he has played for. So, being here in the first place as a top shooter, his shooting stats are good, but not everything else. He hasn't generated shots from aerial duels, and curiously enough, his goal attempts were either in the first 30 minutes or LATE into the second half. Hot start and good finisher? I'll watch another game and then make my verdict. Not on Watchlist

Ba
Demba Ba is a pure shooter, nothing else. So what would we want to see in our stats for a pure shooter? 1) Goal attempts. Demba Ba attempts as many shots in the box as well as outside, which shows that he's involved in open play as well as set pieces.

2) Aerial Ability. Demba Ba's won 4/4 duels center of the park (presumably from goal kicks) but the most important stat is 2/4 in the opposition penalty box. Very encouraging. 3) Tactical Role. Besides his new set-piece taking role, Demba Ba's role in the squad is to knock down goal kicks, and get in the box ASAP.

Frankly he's got everything, but I just see no reason to get him at the moment as he probably won't outperform Suarez, RVP and Ruiz. He'll be on the watchlist though in case one my front 3 become injured. Watchlist 1

Dzeko
Oh dear. I feel bad for Edin Dzeko because his stats are genuinely good. His tactical effectiveness is also brilliant, Mancini using him when defenses are weakest and Dzeko is usually one of the suspects to be in the points WHEN CITY WIN. Hence, the strategy with Dzeko is to start him every game, and if he doesn't play he'll rotate out for a second forward/midfielder who is equally as expensive/able as him.

Sadly, while tactics and stats say yes, FPL strategy says no. Dzeko has only completely missed  1 game in the last 10, which means that if you had started him every game, you'd be severely disappointed. With 3 strikers you have no room for error. Sorry friend. Not on Watchlist


Kone
Aroune Kone is actually in a spot of bother at the moment in terms of FPL points. While he's an excellent 3rd striker option, he is too expensive for a 5 midfield strategy, and yet too cheap for a 3 striker strategy. So why would you have him in your squad?

I'll tell you why. Because Wigan have figured out how to survive in the BPL. Watch for Martinez's trademark winning run. If it is soon, get Kone. ASAP. In the meantime, I wouldn't consider. Not on Watchlist


Conclusion:

Wishlist: Gerrard, Ruiz, Walcott

Watchlist 1: Ba, Marveaux

Watchlist 2: Aguero

Watchlist Changes: OK so I'll have to figure out how to keep this Watchlist continuous. I keep getting overhauls. More tiers? Review of last week's watchlist candidates? I'll have to mull over it for ideas...

3 recommendations for this week, but in terms of fixtures, Gerrard is what I'll recommend to you if you don't have Suarez for cover, especially if you want short term cover for the suspended Gareth Bale. 

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