Monday 28 January 2013

GW23: The Watchlist



Each week when Shotsontarget publish their stats for MatchCenter, I'll pick the match's "best players" and highlight their most outstanding stats to decide whether they will make the Watchlist.


Two metrics are used here, the first being Key Passes (a pass that creates a shooting chance) and Shots on Target in the Box. Players that stand out on either stat will be called Creators and Shooters respectively, while players who have both are coined All-Rounders.

Watchlist Guidelines: 

Players that go on the Watchlist are Tier 1 all rounders, and some of the top 3/4 Tier 2 All-Rounders. Tier 1 All-Rounders are the most important, pinpointing potential "Gems" for the coming weeks.

The Tier 1 All-Rounders are "Gems" that will be worth PICKING UP if the maintain their stats (and tactical positioning) for 2-3 weeks in a row, and will certainly be the ones that are "worth a punt".

The Tier 2 All Rounders are also potential gems, but they are more of the "shining lights" in a weak team performance and are more likely to be picked up when their team hits form.

If there is no value there then I'll look through some top Shooters and top Creators. I'll also do a quick note on how these top Shooters' and Creators' chances are created in their respective systems, and make a quick verdict on whether to include them in the Watchlist or not.

I'll probably make a "Second Tier" Watchlist as well to accommodate players that are "coming into form", perhaps due to a new system or a new-found confidence.

Finally, I'll have a "Wishlist" for personal reasons: These are Tier 1 Watchlist players that I don't have that I wish to have, which is something I'll use for my upcoming transfer-in decisions.


Here we go. Watchlist last week (GW22):


Wishlist: -

Watchlist 1: Baines, Gerrard

Watchlist 2: Lampard, Lukaku, Benteke, Di Santo




Player
Price
Minutes
Key Passes
Shots
Shots in Box
Shots on Target
Assists
Goals
West Ham 1 QPR 1
Cole (Joe)
5.6
95
3
3
3
2
0
1
Chamakh
5.4
62
3
4
4
2
0
0
Taarabt
5.7
82
4
2
0
1
1
0
Remy
6.0
95
1
3
1
1
0
1
Man City 2 Fulham 0
Silva
9.4
89
6
3
3
2
0
2
Dzeko
7.5
95
2
7
5
3
0
0
Tevez
8.9
81
4
5
1
1
1
0
Newcastle 1 Reading 2
Cabaye
6.6
74
2
5
1
3
0
1
Cisse
8.8
95
1
4
4
3
0
0
Le Fondre
4.7
25
0
2
2
2
0
2
Swansea 3 Stoke 1
De Guzman
5.7
94
1
5
2
2
0
2
Michu
8.3
78
1
4
3
0
1
0
Whelan
5.0
94
4
0
0
0
0
0
Chelsea 2 Arsenal 1
Player
Price
Minutes
K.Pass
Shots
S.i.Box
Target
Assists
Goals
Mata
10.0
96
4
1
1
1
0
1
Walcott
9.4
96
1
4
2
2
0
1
Giroud
7.8
96
0
4
3
2
0
0
Hazard
9.4
88
1
2
2
2
0
0
Lampard
8.4
96
1
3
1
1
0
1
Tottenham 1 Man United 1
Bale
9.8
95
0
7
1
1
0
0
Dempsey
9.0
95
2
5
3
4
0
1
Lennon
7.2
95
6
2
0
1
1
0
Defoe
8.2
95
0
5
3
2
0
0
RVP
14.1
95
0
2
2
2
0
1
Liverpool 5 Norwich 0
Sturridge
7.4
69
0
4
3
3
0
1
Suarez
10.5
93
5
4
2
2
0
1
West Brom 2 Aston Villa 2
Brunt
5.5
94
4
4
0
2
0
1
Lukaku
6.6
95
2
6
4
0
1
0
Odemwingie
6.9
95
5
7
5
1
0
1
N’Zogbia
5.8
67
3
2
2
0
2
0
Agbonlahor
6.8
95
1
4
4
2
0
1
Benteke
6.5
95
3
2
1
2
0
1
Wigan 2 Sunderland 3
Fletcher
7.0
96
2
3
3
3
0
1
Maloney
4.8
96
5
3
2
1
1
0
Southampton 0 Everton 0
Ramirez
5.6
71
3
3
2
1
0
0
Fellaini
7.6
95
2
2
2
2
0
0
Lambert
6.4
95
1
6
5
1
0
0
Arsenal 5 West Ham 1
Walcott
9.1
94
2
2
1
2
1
1
Podolski
8.4
94
4
2
1
1
0
1
Wilshere
6.4
94
3
2
0
1
1
0
Cazorla
9.6
94
1
5
2
2
0
1


Top Shooters:

Agbonlahohr, Sturridge, Defoe, Walcott, Giroud, Papiss Cisse

Not gonna cover the usual suspects, but some unexpected candidates have popped up here and I will give them a word or two.

Top Creators:

None

The pattern of All-Rounders outperforming Creators remains consistent.

The elite options

More big scores from all the elites, most of the power 5 having SOME offensive returns. Bale was the only exception despite his 7 attempts at goal. Average alarmingly high (54 points, what the flying fuck...)

The Emerging Defenders

Another Everton Clean Sheet. Time to invest in Baines or Distin I wonder.

Top All Rounders:

Tier 1: Suarez, Dempsey, Dzeko, Silva

Tier 2: Fletcher, Maloney, Cabaye, Joe Cole, Chamakh

To be Given Verdict: 

All-Rounders: Dempsey, Fletcher, Maloney, Cabaye, Joe Cole, Chamakh

Shooters/Creators: Sturridge, Agbonlahor, Papiss Cisse

Dempsey
Like the protagonist in an action film, Clint Dempsey has put on his Punisher outfit and he looks like he's ready to take this FPL season to its climax. What is interesting is that in all the games that Clint Dempsey has played more than 60 minutes, he has provided offensive returns 5 out of his last 6 games.

Returns against Man United don't mean much to me really, as Sir Alex tends to have special strategies for each team, I'm still not sure how Dempsey's story will play out, so I'll give him 1 game and see what happens then before I make another verdict. Watchlist 2

Fletcher
Stevie F cannot be ignored now, and it pains to say that I am putting him off for another week because I have my Wildcard planned for GW25 and I cannot play it earlier. However, he jumps straight to my wishlist and I hope that his price doesn't rise too much, I just need him to hold out for 1.5 more days CMON. Wishlist

Maloney
Shaun Mayonaise has actually put in decent shifts with Wigan now, and because I feel that Wigan are already in the preps of making their annual epic run, Shaun Maloney RIGHT NOW is a very, very good punt FOR THE PRICE YOU PAY. 4.8 puts him in contention against Marveaux and Puncheon as far as the eye can see, and with Southampton going defensive, I see Maloney being the new Puncheon here. He goes into my Wishlist and will be my first Wildcard consideration if I go 3-4-3. Wishlist

Cabaye
Yohan Cabaye's stats became noticable for the first time in a while, and with the influx of so many players, GW25 wildcarders will have a real opportunity to see how Cabaye fits into this new side. Doesn't make the Watchlist until I see consistent stats. Not On Watchlist

Joe Cole
Some of the adventurous would've given Jole Cole a shot with his DGW and would've been rewarded for their bravery. Due to small sample size I cannot make a verdict yet, but the obvious signs are "start for home games". Will wait 1 home game and 1 away game to see how he fares. Not On Watchlist

Chamakh
The Morroccan has copped some flak for his performances over the last couple of years, but it's good to see Chamakh put in a decent shift. Without 90 minutes no one would really pick him up now, but one more performance like this and I'll give him a real thorough analysis. Sunderland beckons. Watchlist 2

Sturridge
Daniel Sturridge is now confirmed to be the central striker ahead of Suarez. The choice is really yours in terms of (a) how consistent you think Sturridge's returns are going to be and (b) Whether you can reinvest the 3.0m you save by having Sturridge instead of Suarez in upgrading, i dunno, maybe Gibbs + Davies + Michu into Zabaleta + Azpilicueta + Lampard?!? Food for thought, but I have him penned in for GW27, so he only comes on the watchlist again in 2 weeks. Not On Watchlist

Agbonlahor
Personally I've always had a soft spot for Gabby, having succesfully punted on him last season and it really relieves me to see that there are differentials in Aston Villa beyond Benteke. I'll probably leave him as it is for now, and give him another home game (Newcastle yay) to see whether Gabby's given another chance to shine. Lambert's just as unpredictable in Villa as he was for Norwich. Not on Watchlist


Papiss Cisse
It seems that Papiss Cisse put in a decent shift, but I don't expect to see Cisse up front next game. Thinking of recording the next Newcastle game to see how the new boys interact with him. Not On Watchlist


Conclusion:

Wishlist: Fletcher, Maloney

Watchlist 1: Baines, Gerrard

Watchlist 2: Chamakh, Dempsey

Watchlist Changes: Fletcher and Maloney gate crash the watchlist really, with several newcomers making their case, but only Chamakh and Dempsey considered as I have to make 3-4-3 and 3-5-2 alternatives. Can't wait to activate my WC.

This Gameweek sees 3 plum ties: Spurs at Norwich, Everton hosting West Brom and United hosting Southampton. While every man and his dog will have RVP, and Bale looks like he's looking for a punching bag to let out his frustration (poor Norwich), Fletcher is my real recommendation for this Gameweek. If you can't afford him, Dempsey  is a very, very good punt.

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